Can one strategy work "most of the time" in any market condition?

joeltrades said:
Hi, After trying many different strategies for more than 6 months, it feels like there's no one winning strategy that mostly works. Some strategies work really well for a few weeks, and then go through a cold period - both on the long and short side, small or large caps....

My question is, how do we cope with this? How do we know when the market is even changing and what the current condition is? I am just looking for a simple strategy that works "fairly well". I don't want millions or lambos, just want consistency....
More...

LOL, 6 months, I can laugh...now having 43 years at my back, since 1992 learned to program, most of my time of building systems is back testing.

"Strategies", did you build them or from books that thousands have read before you or internet, if they were free, you get what you get. How much of the strategies were based on charting? Did you know that 99% of systems are based on risk management and entries are 1% of the system? Most don't have large enough sample size, 3,000 minimum over several years, most can't read charts and have no clear understanding of toping/bottoming formations, or average swing lengths for uptrend or downtrend, "mean" average of retracements. What's the difference between buying on momentum or buying as it drops as per risk?

You build enough systems each year and test them well, there are some that work on every timeframe, every instrument, BUT risk changes depending on different factors, cost of stocks, cost of futures contracts, expirations of futures and options, changes in open interest and new contract highs in futures, no options in futures, seasons, political unrest, government reports etc...If you trading a $9 stock can't use same percentages on a $900 stock. Each stock has it's own personality.

Also, acceptance, hard to learn, learning to accept all systems have some type of drawdowns, BUT this is learned through back testing. Also, one's equity curve, learn when you are due for drawdown and then cut back size.
 
You should use basic knowledge and think like a problem solver.

  1. There are indeed different market conditions. So the first step is to define the market conditions. For me different market conditions means different strenghts of the trend.
  2. Next step is to have a basic trading plan. Most important is to understand the logic behind each "indicator" you use, helps you to "predict" the behavior of the market.
  3. Then adapt the basic trading plan to the actual market conditions. Trending markets require staying longer in a trade. Non trending markets require faster exit and shorter stays in a trade. Interpretation of indicators also changes depending on the strenght of the trend.
  4. Don't forget that markets are dynamic. So you might be forced to change from one trading plan to another depending on the ever changing market conditions. The entire system should be self adjusting. If you succeed your variable trading plan will look like one plan that always gives you the optimal strategy for that moment. Logical but difficult to realize.
 
Last edited:
joeltrades said:
Hi, After trying many different strategies for more than 6 months, it feels like there's no one winning strategy that mostly works. Some strategies work really well for a few weeks, and then go through a cold period - both on the long and short side, small or large caps.

Books like "Trading in the zone" say that the market does not have any bearing on its past and every day is a new day - but this is clearly not the case as we can see that in the summer months, there is a stretch of choppiness. And other stretches of "cold" and "hot" periods confirm this.

My question is, how do we cope with this? How do we know when the market is even changing and what the current condition is? I am just looking for a simple strategy that works "fairly well". I don't want millions or lambos, just want consistency.

Also please don't reply with responses like "Trading requires discipline" for my consistency question. I know all that theory about risk management pretty well TBH and I'm pretty good with following it in my experience. I feel like that's not enough and there's more to the changing markets that I am missing, than risk management.
More...

Let me talk about day trading.

Even if you are in the zone and highly disciplined,
it doesn't mean you will earn money.

In my Journal, I am trying to emphasize there are
- time when it is easy to earn $$$ & time when it is very difficult to earn $$$,

- some futures that are easy to trade, some futures that are very difficult to trade.

Last Friday, those who traded Asian index futures should be happy.
Those who trade European and US index futures would find trading very challenging.

And market conditions change and we need to know what is in 'fashion',
and what is not.
 
Ancient people never believe man can fly.
Why? Because they never did.

This fact tells that you should not deny a possibility just because you can not do it.

Those who deny there are strategies that can work all time, are those who can never do it.

I believe it because I did it.
My strategy can work all time, in all conditions, it even work both in daytrading and longer term swing trading, with the same basic rule.
 
shields-up.gif
 
wmwmw said:
Ancient people never believe man can fly.
Why? Because they never did.

This fact tells that you should not deny a possibility just because you can not do it.

Those who deny there are strategies that can work all time, are those who can never do it.

I believe it because I did it.
My strategy can work all time, in all conditions, it even work both in daytrading and longer term swing trading, with the same basic rule.
More...
My strategy works all the time too, except in a downturn/bear market, similar to CANSLIM but without the CAN.
 
Yes, trend following strategy.
But it is too general.
Everyone knows trend following is good, but very few can apply it.
Because very few people know where trend starts, and where it ends.

So the key point is your strategy should figure out where a trend initiates, and where it ends.
And so you know where to enter, where to stop and where to take profit.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top