Can one really successfully trade on fundamentals?

btw, I would not allow our PR Dept. to release information to the public that I had not already priced into the market.
 
Quote from bone:

Spreads, yes I agree. Fundamentals, bullshit.

I took on a client in February who was in the S&P Pit. He is now 7 for 7 in the grain spreads.

All of my clients are killing in the grains.



What contracts do your clients mostly trade, specifically? Which exchanges and which contracts?
More...
 
Quote from clearinghouse:

Quote from bone:

Spreads, yes I agree. Fundamentals, bullshit.

I took on a client in February who was in the S&P Pit. He is now 7 for 7 in the grain spreads.

All of my clients are killing in the grains.

What contracts do your clients mostly trade, specifically? Which exchanges and which contracts?
More...


My clients trade everything you can. The client who made 45% in 3 months traded one-lot futures in CME products. Sickly low drawdowns. Want to talk to him ?
More...
 
I model for commercial order flow, and hold positions based upon that order confirmation.

We let them do the heavy lifting in terms of turning the market.

And we hold through numbers. Because numbers help us.
 
I trade spreads based on the seasonality filtering with fundamentals and some price and scenario analysis... I think is one of the best way to trade spreads(it is my opinion), and the results are similar like Bone`s Client, spectacular profit, not huge downdrow, and low margins...

Greg
 
Quote from bone:

My clients trade everything you can. The client who made 45% in 3 months traded one-lot futures in CME products. Sickly low drawdowns. Want to talk to him ?
More...

Bone, based on your experience how much is considerated a good retur trading commodity spreads,for an $100.000 account, of course not just the return is important, also the volatility and the max dawdown????

Thanks

Greg
 
Quote from greg25:

Bone, based on your experience how much is considerated a good retur trading commodity spreads,for an $100.000 account, of course not just the return is important, also the volatility and the max dawdown???? Thanks Greg
More...

Greg, for clients with accounts under $100K who are now in the live markets I have been seeing about 10 % per month average ROI, with about a 2.2% monthly average max drawdown and annualized Sharpe Ratios at about 8.0 with today's Ten Year Note yield. Now, those are clients who choose to report to me - but I think it is a fair representation knowing how I do trading my own personal account. As you know, it gets kinda chippy with the human element.

Volatility is entirely up to my client's choice of market space - we have hundreds of spreads, and an RBOB Crack can have a 98 % 20 day historical vol and a Eurodollar Calendar can have a 8 % 20 day historical vol so the spectrum is very wide. The good news is that clients can pretty much choose how mild or wild they like their markets to be.
 
Quote from bone:

Greg, for clients with accounts under $100K who are now in the live markets I have been seeing about 10 % per month average ROI, with about a 2.2% monthly average max drawdown and annualized Sharpe Ratios at about 8.0 with today's Ten Year Note yield. Now, those are clients who choose to report to me - but I think it is a fair representation knowing how I do trading my own personal account. As you know, it gets kinda chippy with the human element.

Volatility is entirely up to my client's choice of market space - we have hundreds of spreads, and an RBOB Crack can have a 98 % 20 day historical vol and a Eurodollar Calendar can have a 8 % 20 day historical vol so the spectrum is very wide. The good news is that clients can pretty much choose how mild or wild they like their markets to be.
More...

Ok thats fine, So I am in the market maybe not a 10 % monthly.. but close...

Thanks again

greg
 
I know a CFA fund manager who routinely slap the averages. Technicals or sentiment dont ever enter his decision making process.
 
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