if the markets truly were random then no amount of anticipation adaption or skill would matter. Especially after commissions.
If roads truly were random no one would ensure them.
Roads are built according to rules.
Highways are built to accommodate decision making at 70 miles an hour.
The markets organiccally create rules to accommodate traders with excellent decision making skills.
The 50 period ema is frequently like a should on a road. It is placed there as a boundry for the good drivers. It might not stop a drunk but it stops me.
I too have read talebs book and I had a different take away.
He was pointing out that people with flawed approaches to the market like his neighbor could do very well for a while because of luck. Ironically the part that most seem to miss when reading talebs book is not to give up on order and to say everything is random - it is to take advantage of the times that things are not random.
If you look a few years back I had a discussion on this board with a stats professor. he too was carried away with talebs thoughts.
He talked about how he chastised his friend for thinking a good general was one who how some amount of major battles.
He response was that winning such a small amount of battles could have been random. I told him he was crazy.
He said the same thing could be said for winning sporting events.
If you think wining the U.S. open in tennis just once can be a random event then we have core disagreement on life. And my view is superior. You don't win U.S. opens by luck alone.
If roads truly were random no one would ensure them.
Roads are built according to rules.
Highways are built to accommodate decision making at 70 miles an hour.
The markets organiccally create rules to accommodate traders with excellent decision making skills.
The 50 period ema is frequently like a should on a road. It is placed there as a boundry for the good drivers. It might not stop a drunk but it stops me.
I too have read talebs book and I had a different take away.
He was pointing out that people with flawed approaches to the market like his neighbor could do very well for a while because of luck. Ironically the part that most seem to miss when reading talebs book is not to give up on order and to say everything is random - it is to take advantage of the times that things are not random.
If you look a few years back I had a discussion on this board with a stats professor. he too was carried away with talebs thoughts.
He talked about how he chastised his friend for thinking a good general was one who how some amount of major battles.
He response was that winning such a small amount of battles could have been random. I told him he was crazy.
He said the same thing could be said for winning sporting events.
If you think wining the U.S. open in tennis just once can be a random event then we have core disagreement on life. And my view is superior. You don't win U.S. opens by luck alone.
Wonder how he's doing today...