Quote from Steve Dillinger:
The success rate for someone in your position is very, very, very low. It is higher than 0, but not by a lot.
I personally have seen dozens of traders with many years of market experience and a capital base with another zero on it attempt the same thing and fail.
The deck is stacked against you in every way imaginable.
The markets are by-and-large efficient. There are many inefficiencies left, but most take very large capital accounts to exploit.
Your brain is naturally wired to do the opposite of what you need to do. You will follow your instincts and buy tops / sell bottoms.
The places you are most likely to end up want your commission dollars, first and foremost. They of course want you to succeed, as that will generate more commission dollars. But the most likely outcome, by a very large margin, is you make $2k trading, lose $19K in commission and $8k in expenses.
In searching for 'the answer' you will explore every system, buy every book and listen to every guru. It will take you a long time and a lot of $$ to really realize there is no 'answer.'
Most successful traders I know have a 'feel' for the tape. My best guess is getting a 'feel' takes somewhere between 2-3 years and forever.
I suggest this- Look for a trading position where you get paid- you don't pay them. IE- a job. Good ones are not easy to find or get into, but if you are smart enough to be successful you should be able to pull it off.
Think of the job as paid training. Learn / absorb everything you can. Live frugally and save every penny you can. In a few years (at the earliest), once you have at least two years living expenses plus at least 100k in excess cash, find a reputable prop trading firm and try your luck.
