Can anyone test the following strategy ??

Thanks! manz for seeing what many others fail to see, besides that they don't even understand that I can not change the forecasts on the site after day has already started.

Can you pelase give some pointers to fish where can I find him and his system and also that other system you mentioned ?

Do not see this as a criticism or disapproval of that system but what I am trying to do is collect 2 or 3 points/contract every day which could lead to total 40 - 60 pts, given after stop losses I can manage to get 25 S&P pts/month which is = $1250/contract and say if my required capital /contract comes to $2500

This would mean a return of approx 50%/month, I am actually looking to this kind of performance....

Still these all are expected figures until I can validate them statistically...
 
Quote from abhay:

Thanks! manz for seeing what many others fail to see, besides that they don't even understand that I can not change the forecasts on the site after day has already started.

Can you pelase give some pointers to fish where can I find him and his system and also that other system you mentioned ?

Do not see this as a criticism or disapproval of that system but what I am trying to do is collect 2 or 3 points/contract every day which could lead to total 40 - 60 pts, given after stop losses I can manage to get 25 S&P pts/month which is = $1250/contract and say if my required capital /contract comes to $2500

This would mean a return of approx 50%/month, I am actually looking to this kind of performance....

Still these all are expected figures until I can validate them statistically...
More...

abhay,

His name is Mark B. Fisher, President of MBF Clearing Corp one of the greatest traders in the world. He wrote a book called 'The logical trader', you can look at the sample pages in amazon.com, link:http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...418509?v=glance&s=books&vi=reader#reader-link .

The other guy has a web site link http://www.index-trader.com/ , if you look at his real time results in 2003 July and other months, you can understand, why he is doing so good. Goodluck.
 
Quote from abhay:

Why can't you folks simply understand that this thread is about seeking help on building a strategy and testing the results.
More...

i'll make you a deal: if you post the realtime live updates from your service, i will do the work you are requesting be done.
 
Hello Folks,

I continued on my efforts to build a model on the stated concept and am excited at the findings :

See the attached chart.

I could test only over 3 months of previous 5 min data and i believe these have been the most choppiest, range bound months recently.

So the results over longer time frame should be better.

In 3 months trading 1 contract gave me 69 S&P points (including commision) which means $1150/contract/month

Max consecutive loosers are on Avg only 2, but once it was 3

So if assuming lot of day traders firm allow $1000 as daytrade margin for 1 ES mini (I know several who allow $500 margin/contract), we begin with $2500/contract margin

This will allow us to stay in the game even after consecutive losses and still give 50% return /month

(This is non-cumulative)

%Profitable trades > 75%


This can still be tweaked to cut losses further....
 

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Quote from abhay:

Hello Folks,

I continued on my efforts to build a model on the stated concept and am excited at the findings :

See the attached chart.

I could test only over 3 months of previous 5 min data and i believe these have been the most choppiest, range bound months recently.

So the results over longer time frame should be better.

In 3 months trading 1 contract gave me 69 S&P points (including commision) which means $1150/contract/month

Max consecutive loosers are on Avg only 2, but once it was 3

So if assuming lot of day traders firm allow $1000 as daytrade margin for 1 ES mini (I know several who allow $500 margin/contract), we begin with $2500/contract margin

This will allow us to stay in the game even after consecutive losses and still give 50% return /month

(This is non-cumulative)

%Profitable trades > 75%


This can still be tweaked to cut losses further....
More...

Have you revised any forecasts lately?
 
Thanks for sharing,

Could you please state the EXACT methodology for this chart you post in your previous post.

I am sorry to be redundant.....but I believe you said

if open + 2 enter long for a 2 point target

if open-2 enter short for a 2-point target


Michael B.
 
Esavant,

The methodology is exactly that. The values have changed after analysis I found the optimum initial move and then I found the amount of further move we can expect.

Important factor, I analysed the amount of zig-zag that can happen before it hits my target profit objective.

I also first thought of all abnormal situations that can happen and then built a logic to handle those situations also.
 
Quote from abhay:

Esavant,

The methodology is exactly that. The values have changed after analysis I found the optimum initial move and then I found the amount of further move we can expect.

Important factor, I analysed the amount of zig-zag that can happen before it hits my target profit objective.

I also first thought of all abnormal situations that can happen and then built a logic to handle those situations also.
More...

abhay,

The results are looking good.

"The values have changed"
In order to confirm your results would you mind telling us exactly what your parameters are?

"I also first thought of all abnormal situations that can happen and then built a logic to handle those situations also."
Also, so that we can build on each other's work, would you mind telling us exactly what your "logic to handle those situations" is?

If you can share these with me I can confirm your results and probably perform a more extended backtest.

Richard
 
Quote from abhay:

Esavant,

The methodology is exactly that. The values have changed after analysis I found the optimum initial move and then I found the amount of further move we can expect.
More...


Be very careful about optimizing your trigger values. You are simply curve fitting them to match the data set. You do not have sufficient trades nor data. Much more data and trades should be used to make these adjustments. The same with stops, etc. that are used to optimize your results. Of course the best course is to use the method with a simulator on real time data and track the results over a long period of time.

Good luck!

Bob
 
Agreed RTS. I am awareof too much curve fitting and optimizing.

I understand that I do need to test on a larger time frame but chances of better success are very high as this strategy is based on some kind of momentum and if it can give hopes in these last 3 months of congestion, range bound market then other trending periods wil definitely give better results.


Can anyone suggest where I can do longer timeframe testing, I will share some more details once I am more convinced...


Thanks!
 
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