Can Anyone Be Successful In Trading.... With Only About 50% Win-Loss Rate?

[volpri]

Good grief Gotcha,

They were ALL make believe trades. Nothing but illustrations of different options that can become available in a high probability setup environment. I simply did it as the markets were trading today. It was ONLY for illustrating how I might would trade in a context like today. It was all illustrations. Thats it! I looked at the context. I saw setups I like taking. I was simply trying to show "how" I might would trade this sort of thing. I am not telling anyone else to do it that way nor am I advising anyone to do it that way.

You don't understand my stop placement because you don't understand how I think in terms of probability and stop placement. I am a discretionary trader. That means i get to change my mind as the PA unfolds. As i see price action unfolding and I see more options presenting themselves, then my original premise may change. I adapt on the fly. I know that is disconcerting to some folks but it is how I trade. I do not back test. I CAN'T back test. Actually, I have never seen the need to backtest. The way I trade is different everyday in one way, or the other. No two ranges are alike in terms of buying and selling pressures. No two Pb are alike. No two trends are alike. I gauge the buying and selling pressures as the market unfolds and yes I adjust stops losses...and profit targets based upon what PA appears to be doing.

I saw this context this morning and realized it would PROBABLY offer me more than one option so I wanted to illustrate the different options that MAY appear as time rolled on. And i wanted to make annotations that give some sort of explanation. But I have to choose an initial stop. For me that is NEVER carved in stone. But when i look at the context i want an initial stop that will give me MORE options to play depending on how the market unfolds. Plus I want to stay out of the range of HFT's and some of the algo's.

By the way there is a difference in an initial stop (or initial risk) and actual risk. Initial risk is what you use to protect yourself. But you may not need all that protection as the PA unfolds. So, actual risk is what you actually incurred as the price action unfolded and went against you BEFORE it moved in your favor and/or before you exited with a profit.

I admit i have my own way. I am not a system trader. I am not a mechanical trader. I don't attempt to box in the market and make it conform to my rules rather I adapt on the fly and may actually reverse my premise more than once, faster than you can spit, as i see PA folding. Remember my background is from scalping. It is in my blood.

Anyway peace man...
But you should tell us how you trade. Aren't we here to share! I have yet to see you post even an imaginary trade or even give us an explanation of how you trade. Maybe you have and i just haven't seen it or forgotton it.

It seems like most here never post explanations. They just say long here...short here..profit here..loss here..that is not helping ANYONE. Just their own ego and ET becomes a platform to demonstrate their trading skills without a single explanation that just leaves all the noobs drooling at the mouth. I would encourage folks to post explantions. People can decide for themselves if they like what they see and want to try it or not. I could be wrong again. I have many times in my life been wrong.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Can Anyone Become Ever So Slightly Successful In Trading....
With Only About 40% Win-Loss Rate?

Certainly.

 

[Gotcha]

and yes I adjust stops losses

If you adjust stop losses, then they aren't stop losses. I'm not saying you can't exit where ever you want, but if you say the stop goes above some swing point, and then you get out before that swing point is broken, then you're getting out before the market has told you to get out. You may say its because the move against your position was quick or whatever else you see in PA, but you're still breaking your rationale for your stop. Don't of course let me tell you how you should do things, but if the whole idea is to share, what you're sharing is a set of rules, and then how you break them at will.

It would be different if you didn't spend so much time explaining where your stop will be, but you do go into great detail, and so when you abandon it at all, it actually hurts your credibility.

Speaking of which, you still never got around to saying why you magically exited both trades 1 tick from their max movement.

By the way there is a difference in an initial stop (or initial risk) and actual risk.

Since we obviously don't agree, at the very least you could change your terminology. After the trade is entered, however much it moves against you is the MAE (maximum adverse excursion). Your risk always was where ever your initial stop was. Imagine getting in just before FOMC or even crude inventory. Its very easy for price to jump a few points in seconds. Clearly if your stop is hit, you still have slippage to worry about, but at least there is something there.

Its obvious that since you adjust everything on the fly, stating where your stop loss is is pointless since this isn't how you trade since you're never letting your trades actually hit that stop. And because everything is so in the moment, talking about what you would have done is also a stretch because if they aren't actual trades you take, who is to say that some micro movement doesn't cause you to exit quickly. It once again doesn't help any newbie reading to come across a perfectly marked up chart about what could be done without showing what is actually done in real time.

But you should tell us how you trade.

Here we go. Perfect day for scalping. First a long 1 tick above the previous day low. Another scalp 1 tick above the overnight low. We can sell later when price reaches this previous swing high, one tick shy. We can buy again after a poke of the swing low when price comes back up. Lastly, we can buy above 2410 since the ES does often turn at these round number multiples of 10. No need for stops as all of these trades worked out perfectly.

 

[volpri]

If you adjust stop losses, then they aren't stop losses. I'm not saying you can't exit where ever you want, but if you say the stop goes above some swing point, and then you get out before that swing point is broken, then you're getting out before the market has told you to get out. You may say its because the move against your position was quick or whatever else you see in PA, but you're still breaking your rationale for your stop. Don't of course let me tell you how you should do things, but if the whole idea is to share, what you're sharing is a set of rules, and then how you break them at will.

It would be different if you didn't spend so much time explaining where your stop will be, but you do go into great detail, and so when you abandon it at all, it actually hurts your credibility.

Speaking of which, you still never got around to saying why you magically exited both trades 1 tick from their max movement.


Since we obviously don't agree, at the very least you could change your terminology. After the trade is entered, however much it moves against you is the MAE (maximum adverse excursion). Your risk always was where ever your initial stop was. Imagine getting in just before FOMC or even crude inventory. Its very easy for price to jump a few points in seconds. Clearly if your stop is hit, you still have slippage to worry about, but at least there is something there.

Its obvious that since you adjust everything on the fly, stating where your stop loss is is pointless since this isn't how you trade since you're never letting your trades actually hit that stop. And because everything is so in the moment, talking about what you would have done is also a stretch because if they aren't actual trades you take, who is to say that some micro movement doesn't cause you to exit quickly. It once again doesn't help any newbie reading to come across a perfectly marked up chart about what could be done without showing what is actually done in real time.


Here we go. Perfect day for scalping. First a long 1 tick above the previous day low. Another scalp 1 tick above the overnight low. We can sell later when price reaches this previous swing high, one tick shy. We can buy again after a poke of the swing low when price comes back up. Lastly, we can buy above 2410 since the ES does often turn at these round number multiples of 10. No need for stops as all of these trades worked out perfectly.


View attachment 175300

ROFLMAO...at least i had a stop. You had none. Warning ...watch out noobs!

MAE..ACR...call it what you want. It is just semantics. I consider it the risk i actually had to face in the trade. That makes me adjust the PT on the fly.

As far as the exits and the 1 tick thing. Looked like an excellent place to exit. Don't you agree!

It was ALL make believe and designed to illustrate some points but it was done in todays markets as live PA was unfolding. Please try to understand that. All noobs please understand that! Thanks.

Bty as a side note the stop today was never abandoned. It stayed down there like a little obedient puppy dog. The profit target was all that was adjusted. The stop was mean't to show the correct placement to put the odds in ones favor to not get stopped out in the context of type of PA we had today and to afford more trading options. By the way the stop was placed with the first trade BEFORE the PA of the subsequent trades even happened live. But that stop held good for those trades to. So it proved out to hold good for the other options. Of course that doesn't always happen. But it did today and it made a good illustration. At least I thought so. LOL

good night gotcha...good night noob's ....gotcha might be willing to sell his perfect no stoploss needed never lose trading system at a good post 4th of july AFTER the fact. Make haste and hurry............

 

[Gotcha]

ROFLMAO...at least i had a stop. You had none. Warning ...watch out noobs!

Of course if I was trading for real, stops would be in place. What I showed actually is a rough outline of what I look at. There is also a little bit of orderflow thrown in. There was a lovely thick bid at the overnight low of 2416 which would give more confidence for that long.

Bty as a side note the stop today was never abandoned.

The problem with your stop is that its just too far away. What happens in the mind of a new trader is that once it goes against them, they look at the dollar value of how much they are potentially losing and they go crazy. It might be the right place for a stop, but too big in terms of the amount of money it is. Once you try and use smaller stops, then of course these hit more often and your win rate goes down. The answer though isn't a wide stop.

Conversely, reading PA in real time is tricky, and often when you think you should get out, it ends up going in your favor anyway, so many traders will say they let their trade run to either stop or target and just wait because fumbling around while in a trade usually does more harm than good. Sure sometimes you save yourself from taking the full stop, but other times you get out for a smaller loss, but miss the profit since the stop would never hit but the profit does hit, without you.

Perhaps if you could share your long term stats of win rate, average win and average loss, this would be very beneficial, but I understand that you probably don't keep track of this stuff. Knowing this though would really shine some light on what you're actually doing, as opposed to these perfect looking charts you have shown over the past few months. Its always easy to show what can be done, just like I illustrated above with my chart, but in real life, the trades never turn out this good.

 

[Steve Alexander]

Can Anyone Become Ever So Slightly Successful In Trading....
With Only About 40% Win-Loss Rate?

Many trading gurus, educators, schools, live trading rooms
and numerous other trading entities would almost guarantee
a much higher success rate for their students, if only those
students would keep on paying their fees and try harder
at practicing trading and attaining the 70-80-90% success rate as
proposed by the more seasoned trading educators.

Well, what do you think?

At what proper win-loss trading rate, for example,
90-80-70-60% or even less than 50%;

can a trader attain the status quo of becoming
a respectable consistently profitable trader of sort....?

Any creative thought or idea.... to share or
to encourage those just learning how to trade
to survive a little longer, richer and happier....

before most would become so enragingly disappointed
with trading toward a handsome life style....?

Win/loss ratio does not determine your profitability. You can make a profit with a win/loss ratio of 20%. The figure you want is expectancy. Google it.

 

[wmwmw]

48% win rate.
https://collective2.com/details/110937470

 

[aquarian1]

Can Anyone Become Ever So Slightly Successful In Trading....
With Only About 40% Win-Loss Rate?

Any creative thought or idea.... to share or
to encourage those just learning how to trade
to survive a little longer, richer and happier....

before most would become so enragingly disappointed
with trading toward a handsome life style....?

I'm not sure if this is a real post.

If a person has a lot of capital and modest goals then you could make money trading if you can read charts.

If you have little capital, large goals and short trading time frame it is very difficult to make money trading and you are competing against very tough competition.

Your question has so little information it is very difficult to make a useful reply.
I would guess from this that it is not a serious question.

 

[nakachalet]

@aquarian1

I'm not sure if this is a real post.
.... Your question has so little information it is very difficult to make a useful reply.
I would guess from this that it is not a serious question.

@aquarian1

Can Anyone Become Ever So Slightly Successful In Trading....
With Only About 40% Win-Loss Rate?

Your question has so little information it is very difficult to make a useful reply.
I would guess from this that it is not a serious question

Hi aquarian1, the posted question was real, though many would wish it to be higher
or much higher, particularly if and when your longevity in the market is rather
circumvented. There have been several exemplary posts by various traders
who have been consistently profitable though not needing even the
50% win-loss ratio! The real crux of the matter involves your cumulative
gain must be always larger than your loss.

Like in the accompanying chart posted therewith, I couldn't recall exactly,
but the win-loss ratio was almost 6 to 1....? IF you wish, you could review
that posted chart again at your convenience, K?

The reality in trading is, a trader must delimit and define,
first and foremost.... how much he/she is able to and is willing
to give away, each and every time; when that trader initiates
a buy or sell position. This part of the trading is the only part
that a trader can exercise his/her control over.... so there would
be sufficient fund to avoid margin call and take the next trade!

As for the profit part, I just wish against wish that there would be
less emphasis on....

your profit target ought to be 2, 3, 4, 5 times or even larger,
than your risk in the position!

The reality in the arena is, the market just does not care,
nor seems to care; what a trader's iron cladded rules of
trade are, the trader's wishes or dreams or expectations;

this is also one major reason why over 90% of traders
sustain their losses consistently, because of some
unsupportable own trading rules or trading rules
adopted from other seemingly wise traders.

The reality is the markets truly does not care,
who, or what, or how much, or how often, any
trader wins or loses....

It is solely the responsibility of each trader
to JUST TAKE WHAT THE MARKET IS WILLING
TO GIVE AT THAT PARTICULAR MOMENT IN TIME
CONTINUUM....

to just hope and pray or to just follow my win-loss
ratio or; that another tic or two, my target
would be reached and dreams fulfilled....
is just courting disasters. Just take what the
market is willing to give, whether or not you are
a mile from your golden rules and expectations.
Then you'll survive it all, to take another position
which might over run your expectations then.

Happy and Profitable trading everyone.

 

[nakachalet]

In this pix, the trader did not know at all which direction price would turn.
But stops were initiated, one to protect hard to come by profit,
while the other to initiate a new reverse position, if and when
it came to pass.