Camarilla Equation - Is it valid?

Quote from funky:

here is the typical p/l curve from using pivots .... this is just pulled from ninjatrader for the past 3 weeks.
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Hi Funky,

Coming back to your p/l curve, is this the historical result of trading based on your discretionary pivot-based judgements or is this p/l curve generated by simulation of a mechanical - secret of course - implementation?

Thanks for commenting.

nononsense
 
Quote from nononsense:



Hi Funky,

Coming back to your p/l curve, is this the historical result of trading based on your discretionary pivot-based judgements or is this p/l curve generated by simulation of a mechanical - secret of course - implementation?

Thanks for commenting.

nononsense
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this is the p/l of my trading system. i execute the trades, but its purely a black and white set of rules. simple trend following really. the secret is the positioning.
 
Quote from manz66:



Knowing pivot (p, r1, s1,....) is not enough, you have to include volatility in the calculation also, from the previous sessions. And other things as mentioned in the above post.
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I never thought to include volatility in the equation. Do you mean something like ATR of bar size in the time frame one trades, or something else?

If willing, I"d appreciate hearing how a person might apply that info. Not looking for secrets, just general principals.

Thx
 
Quote from traderkay:

secret is positioning? what do u mean by positioning?
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getting into a position to profit off of a move that happens during the day. my system is a simple trend following system (always in the market) using a 1-2-3 reversal (higher high, higher low, lower high, reverse on break of last higher low; or lower low, lower high, higher low, reverse on break of last lower high), except MY 1-2-3 reversal is defined a bit differently ;)
 
Pivot suggest pivoting that is to say litteraly something where market turns around, it doesn't mean top or bottom. So one (the ?) way to trade them is as usual to be patient and wait for the setup to occur: a trading range and a breakout.

Quote from traderkay:

my guess is funky looks if the pivot is holding, by looking at price (candles) forming at it, if it seems like holding then he goes for the bounce. if it seems like breaking he either goes with the break or waits for the break and retest to go in the direction of the break. he's also very nimble, moving stop to break even pretty quick. am i even close?:D
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Started traded the pivots (NQ) on the simulator... there are lots of ways to trade them, I'm going to list some and see if you folks have any comments about particular methods:

  • breakouts - enter when approaching or just crossing the pivot
  • pullback after breakout - wait for breakout past pivot, then pullback to pivot, enter in original direction of breakout
  • reflection - opposite of breakout - wait till pivot is touched then take position in opposite direction
 
I used to like them but now find they are a distraction.

What seems to help grok the whole picture is a line showing, yesterdays close another for yesterday's high and yesterday's low. Just the Pivot, not R1,S1, M1, M-1 or the rest. They provide hindsight, IMO.

Then I have the average of the first 5-minutes of the day. That and the price action of the first 60-minutes show me the trend for the day 75% of the time.

Finally, the support-resistance lines are a moving target during the day. ES had a support at 1034 while the world waited for the FOMC decision. The market opened up, didn't fade the gap, the trend is up, so buying at 1034.25 was a bit of a gamble but with a breakout of the resistance at 1035.25, nothing else counted.

Oh, I also put in a line once I figure which way the market will go for the rest of the day at the anticipated high or low based on the average range of the last 5-days. Today it exceeded the projected level.

Best wishes,
JD
 
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