Calling a top in oil.. quite possibly

Quote from Lucias:

I haven't made any predictions here because I always have to bet on them (risk some money) and it is not a good time for that.

What say everyone?

Here is my logic..

A. If oil goes up the economy loses steam. Demand dries up.
B. If the market goes down then oil goes down.
C. If the market goes up then oil goes down.

Oil goes down. The world economy decides the US vision was unsustainable. US enters into a multi-decade bear market. US ceases to be the center of investment which is okay because its a dead industry.

What say you?

This is not an official prediction yet. But, if I even write something down then it has to payed attention too.

OKay, I've placed a small wager oil closes below 100.50 tomorrow. I'm interested though to hear all opinion on the black rubbish.

This makes it an official prediction. I'm predicting crude to fall like a rock.
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Your logic is correct until it isn't. The market and oil can certainly rise together as they have done in the last two years. That should be your option D.
 
I would say that my sentiment was more accurate then Bone's in this regard. While I didn't stay with this idea, it looks to me that oil has under performed the SP 500 index.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Note I haven't checked it quantitatively but just looking at market today. Also, I'm not claiming I predicted this. I predicted the first drop down and considered it, i.e oil would go down.

I'm just remarking it looks like my sentiments were somewhat grounded. Not sure what will happen next..
 
Quote from Lucias:

I would say that my sentiment was more accurate then Bone's in this regard.
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I never expressed a sentiment, I merely provided charts because you play on C2 and do not by your own admission trade live real markets and apparently do not have a charting package with real time data. I only provided facts - namely, that CL and ES have a very high two year positive correlation.
 
Quote from Hansel H:

Spot crude 77.76 . Gold 1763.10 . Strong contrary motion means somebody is betting on a serious recession.
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The recession is a reality...

You don't pop a credit bubble so monstrous that it threatens the solvency of the US and EU and then continue life as usual a mere 3 years later. Japan was still recovering by year 10 and their problems remained relatively isolated.

Households deleveraging is creating a serious demand shortfall and will continue until the demand gap is closed. It will take time, and during this time there 'should' be very little, if any, economic growth in the real sense.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/

Sorry for off topic lol
 
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