Call me crazy - I want to buy banks!

timscott · Feb 22, 2009

I agree- those areas were hit by crude.

Dubai is a ghost town

Darkhand · Feb 22, 2009

I have been trading PNC a lot lately, but why buy and hold them? Their books don't seem that great.

rock34748 · Feb 22, 2009

STI at 6.99 a share. Like you just in a toe as they do have some bad stuff not fully exposed yet. I've seen them described as wounded but not likley to be zombies or socialized. Bigger local bank that prides themselves in safety, primarily Florida. We'll see.

I also averaged in UYG mid afternoon Friday, 1.99ish More nervous about this one though because of non-specific wide exposure and just ETF concerns in general. The next big guy to fall to nationalization could drop this one quick, but good strong solution news could rise it nearly as quick.

BAC was the easiest trade though (not investment.) Options expiration Fri, buy mid afternoon sell late afternoon.

Good trading.

MrDODGE · Feb 22, 2009

Options expiration had nothing to do with how the stock traded on Friday. It was all due to government pandering.

Specterx · Feb 22, 2009

If you want to buy banks you shouldn't buy the walking dead like C, BAC etc., you should look to buy well-placed regionals with strong balance sheets. Almost regardless of which bailout plan is pursued, at some point the government will look to auction off as many "toxic" assets as it can to private-sector buyers. Healthy regional banks will get to cherry-pick the best of the worst and stick taxpayers with the real garbage.

I opened an "investment" position in BBT last week around 14 bucks, will be looking to add some other regionals to my portfolio this week. Not going to be looking for quick profits on these, but over the next few years I think they have good upside potential.

ShoeshineBoy · Feb 22, 2009

Quote from ljyoung:

FWIW I've been a USB depositor for many years and these guys are so tight they would make a Canadian banker, let alone a Scotsman (Oh RBS, how did it all start and when will it all end) look like profligate spendthrifts. So if they really didn't get too much into the subprime swamp (ALWAYS hard to know till the books be opened and that ain't going to happen anytime soon), a cautious buy might be in order. Risky so have a tight stop and then, like some guy above said, wait till the blood (in the case of bankers, it is of course blue) flows, ebbs and preferably is staunched.

lj

USB is in serious trouble: they and other Swiss, Italian and German banks lent 1.7 trillion to Eastern Europe and this is the next crisis to hit the globe. This is probably why USB capitulated in banking secrecy to US authories - they have a gun pointed to their head.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/19/AR2009021903284_2.html

And, by the way, did you realize the US is actually going to get away with fining them almost a BILLION dollars?

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20090222&id=9627969

ShoeshineBoy · Feb 22, 2009

Quote from Specterx:

If you want to buy banks you shouldn't buy the walking dead like C, BAC etc., you should look to buy well-placed regionals with strong balance sheets. Almost regardless of which bailout plan is pursued, at some point the government will look to auction off as many "toxic" assets as it can to private-sector buyers. Healthy regional banks will get to cherry-pick the best of the worst and stick taxpayers with the real garbage.

I opened an "investment" position in BBT last week around 14 bucks, will be looking to add some other regionals to my portfolio this week. Not going to be looking for quick profits on these, but over the next few years I think they have good upside potential.

Strong banks stand to gain tremendously. But you have to be very careful: there is a new wave of regional bank failures that has just begun. The predictions are that it will be nothing like the S&L crisis, yet it will be sizeable and dangerous for non-insiders...

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/20/news/companies/bank_failures/index.htm

Do you really think you have any idea how many toxic assets are on the banks' books? Probably not unless you are on the board of the bank...

ShoeshineBoy · Feb 22, 2009

Quote from timscott:

C screwed, BAC probably, COF dead.

But amidst the maimed and dead there have to be survivors that will benefit from this mess.

And at this point it looks like ALL banks have been thrown out. The proverbial baby with the bath water.

I don't like the monster big banks.

I like BBT MTB TD PNC USB, buying a bit in each. Not calling a bottom, just dipping a toe.

PNC has much less exposure to toxic assets / didn't get involved with as many bad loans because housing in their servicing area did not go as nuts.

TD - Canada same thing - housing bubble did not balloon as much. Growing deposits.

MTB - took very little TARP, I think they were asked to take it. Growing deposits because they are viewed as healthy, profitable last Q.

USB - unjustly punished, they picked up all the GOOD assets on their last acquisition and none of the bad, did not over pay.

If you know something I don't on the above (big red flags) = please post.

You have any picks - lets see em.

I would be very cautious. No one knows how nationalization will go or what it will mean:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/20/new...s.it.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009022017

Clubber Lang · Feb 22, 2009

I still don't like banks, but when the time looks good I think HCBK will be a solid survivor.

bwolinsky · Feb 22, 2009

Quote from timscott:

C screwed, BAC probably, COF dead.

But amidst the maimed and dead there have to be survivors that will benefit from this mess.

And at this point it looks like ALL banks have been thrown out. The proverbial baby with the bath water.

I don't like the monster big banks.

I like BBT MTB TD PNC USB, buying a bit in each. Not calling a bottom, just dipping a toe.

PNC has much less exposure to toxic assets / didn't get involved with as many bad loans because housing in their servicing area did not go as nuts.

TD - Canada same thing - housing bubble did not balloon as much. Growing deposits.

MTB - took very little TARP, I think they were asked to take it. Growing deposits because they are viewed as healthy, profitable last Q.

USB - unjustly punished, they picked up all the GOOD assets on their last acquisition and none of the bad, did not over pay.

If you know something I don't on the above (big red flags) = please post.

You have any picks - lets see em.

I was paid $50/hour to analyze those stocks on consulting work. So if you want to see it, you'd need to pay up. The short straw is that their texas ratios are less than 1, which has high correlations of showing insolvency. Nearly all of those are on that list. But if you're looking for something more specific, you can pm me.