Quote from xtrhvydty:
The ratio vertical spread is hurt by IV, the short butterfly is hurt by time passage, but the long time spread benefits from both.
Short the very next expiring month, long the 90days+ option at the same strike. Go ATM or slightly OTM.
You really make the money in the last 3 weeks so you can start it around then. Given this fact, I like the ES/EW contracts since they are liquid and provide expiration dates every 2 weeks. Also the European futures options SPAN means less margin and no chance of early exercise. On top of that I can buy/sell these all day without getting T-regged since they are futures, not stocks. Just use the options based on the same futures contract.
Carefully watch your net delta and gamma risk day to day, especially in the final days. Take off the position or adjust it.
After some movement, you can adjust your delta, gamma risk by:
a. adding another calendar at the next strike, a neutral position
b. rolling the short strike to convert to a diagonal and a bullish/bearish position
c. If the market really takes off, you can just close a leg and keep a directional strategy.
Also, you can buy the long option several months out and keep selling near month contracts against it. Bottom line is trying to minimize the net delta position, watch your gamma risk and breakeven points on your option spread graph. Time decay is a sure thing; if you keep your gamma risk down then you have the time to get out or adjust
Try out both the call and put calendar and choose the more favorable r/r & pricing scenarios. You can also compare buying the spread slightly OTM.
I think the time spread is the perfect spread to get into at the beginning of a consolidation. You can collect the time premium while the market sits on the pot then convert it if significant movement returns.
Anyway I'm just trying to help out and not an expert either.
Best of luck.