Caffeinated thoughts from a full-time software developer/part-time trader

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krugman25 said:
Long stocks and short crude is looking like an attractive pairs trade right here. Would help reduce some of the purely long SP500 delta's.
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Spooz flat and crude down -0.5%. I must have just gotten lucky with that call.
 
Weighed in today at 181 lb/s. Almost there! I have been slowly upping my caloric intake with almost pure protein. That will help continue to promote leaning while preserving muscle. I started with 300-400 calories and am up to around 800-900 daily calories now. I will level out at around 1000 daily calories until I hit my weight goal and then continue to introduce proteins, healthy fats and small amounts of carbs to level out my weight and maintain.
 
Rolled down my GDXJ calls(within my short strangle position) literally seconds before it promptly dropped 1.5%. I must have just gotten lucky with that call.
 
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I am up over 7% in the last 20 trading days. It has been a phenomenal last month of trading. Honestly though I am mentally pooped. I now only hold 2 positions, and one of them I may close today. Trading is not easy (FYI trading and chart reading are two different things), and I am glad to have few position and give my mind and emotions a bit of a break.

There was no single trade that took me there. It was many, many trades done correctly each giving my account small wins of 0.25% to 1%. YOLO, luck-based trading does not last. A solid approach executed over and over that produces many small winners and few small losers lasts.
 
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Here are just a list of unorganized thoughts on trading I have. Many of my thoughts have changed significantly over the years, and some even just this year. In no specific order.

  • Most traders will never get it, by most I mean almost all. This isn't really an opinion, it's just a fact. I have been hanging around trading forums since I started trading and if anything has proven true, almost no one figures out how to achieve positive expectancy with their trading regime.
  • There is way more than 1 way to achieve positive expectancy in trading. I get tired of hearing how there is only this 1 way (usually spoken by someone trying to sell something). Of course personally I will always cheer lead how I trade, but it is by no means the only way..
  • Posting chart setups is meaningless. There are dozens of variables that go into a trading. If I post a chart, and even fill it with all sort of goodies like entries, stops, exits, lines, zones, pivots, etc. It is still useless to everyone else. You can't capture all of those variables in a chart with some lines and words, and even if you could you would make narrow the use of that chart to such a small degree it wouldn't be useful for anyone anyways.
  • Teaching people how to trade is pointless. If you have the aptitude and work ethic you will figure it out. Billions of hours have been wasted by trying to teach people how to trade. Billions more will be wasted and I am not partaking in that time sink anyone.
  • Indicators are USELESS. This is a little tongue it cheek. Almost all indicators are useless. Some indicators can provide small hints but you can't build an entire trading method with long term positive expectancy on an indicator. A few traders have figured this out, most haven't. I'd rather just not mess with them at all. Whatever negligible improvement one may offer is not worth the extra time and hassle.
  • Traders with trading regimes that have positive expectancy's have long strings of losses. This is another reason why I dislike people posting chart analysis. Not because of the poster but because of all of the other people who will either destroy that poster if the setup fails or lift them up as savants if the trade succeeds. The only way to explain it is ego, because, and I hate to have to say this because it is a pre-school level statement, but long term expectancy doesn't hing on a single trade. I may make dozens of trades in a month, hundreds in a year and will make tens of thousands during my entire life. Why are we putting so much emphasis on a single setup? Yep that's right, it's all ego. Hater's want to be right, the poster wants to be right, the posters followers want to be right, and that all astronomically inflates the importance of that 1 trade.
  • Then why do I still post setups from time to time? Because 1) it gives me a chance to be sarcastic and 2) show that there are ways to analyze charts to identify greater than random prediction. Couple that with rock solid trade and money management and you just might get positive expectancy. Am I trying to teach you how to trade? No, and if you ask me I might respond in a not very kind manner. I have far better things to do with my time than to try to teach something that isn't teachable. Put in the sweat equity, hope you have the aptitude and you will find out for yourself in due time if you can trade with long term sustainability.
  • If you have a positive expectancy then why are you on a trading forum and not a billionaire on your own private island. Dumb statements often spoken that don't even deserve the time of day for a response. Always coming from someone who can't figure out how to trade with positive expectancy and has become jaded with the entire thing.
 
So simple to make yet so amazingly delicious and healthy

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PM's got absolutely wrecked today. Since miners are now only about 3% from their first major support level I starting building a sizable position in GDXJ and SILJ. These are positions I expect to be sitting on for a number of years waiting for my macro play to materialize. That means I now have my crypto and PM positions. The last prong of the macro play is A.I. That will sit as portfolio cash until valuations become low enough that I start building a sizable position there as well. What it looks like is my big macro play will be about 30% crypto, 35% PM miners, remainder A.I. stocks.

I closed my short strangle in GDXJ and am looking to put short naked OTM puts on if price does reach that first support level. If price pops from that level I will then put on short naked calls and essentially have myself a fairly wide short strangle. I plan on continuing to sell premium here as long as volatility is juiced up.

I closed my long SP500 position since the day ended with a wee-bit of bearish price action. It's isn't insanely ominous (yet), but it looks like we could retrace back down a bit, and I don't really feel like giving up profit while holding a position through a retrace. Due to its size it could just get steamrolled by a large bullish movement, but not really odds I want to gamble my unrealized P/L on. So I sold and now have real profits, the kind you use to buy steak dinners.

Peace :fistbump:
 
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