By How Much Is The Market Oversold Right Now?

[emg]

oversold and overbought are ancient technical analysis. They do not work.

If they do work, why did many traders went short when es began going up from last yr october - april 2011 thinking the market overbought. In fact, more traders went short in jan thinking the market is overbought.

The fact is, they do not work because more than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!!!

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from shortie:

By some measures the market is very oversold. For example it has not had 6 down weeks since 2002. But in % terms the decline is very modest. The market is still Positive for the year.

VIX has not spiked much above 18 recently, so there is not outright panic that accompanies serious market declines. But the pessimism in financial articles is quiet prominent.

You answered it yourself. See the last sentence.

So the lesson for runts who wear both a belt and suspenders (can't even trust their pants to stay up ) is ....

when the crowd goes one way, you look for the exit .... namely, in this case, the LONG signal on 1H.

Dig?

 

[GrandSupercycle]

S&P500 weekly chart shows a rising wedge enclosed within a megaphone top.

Be careful folks, the naughty Black Swans want to party...

stockmarket618.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/wed-june-1

 

[shortie]

VIX spiked to 20 today, the market bounced up. this could be the beginning of a bounce.

 

[S2007S]

Futures jumped on China inflation numbers, go figure. Now our markets move on inflation numbers out of China, ha. Anyway I am sure the bulls are looking for a 1-2% rally and I think after todays flat closing tomorrow should be a better day, I am thinking once they rally the markets a solid 1%+ you will see a follow through rally lasting days if not weeks. I dont think they will let the SPX fall below 1250.....time for the markets to be propped up before QE2 is finished at the end of June!



Stocks Close Mixed; Dow Still Below 12,000
S&P FUT
1273.30 7.10 +0.56%
DOW FUT
11948.00 63.00 +0.53%
NAS FUT
2230.25 10.50 +0.47%

 

[GrandSupercycle]

Could be time for a (short covering) DOW/SP500 rally.

 

[GrandSupercycle]

No doubt about it - the bearish euro daily chart is increasingly
influential over smaller time frames - thus USD strength continues.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from shortie:

VIX spiked to 20 today, the market bounced up. this could be the beginning of a bounce.

Shortie, place a cushion under your butt when driving, please - you're scaring the shit out of the HERD as they see the driverless car zip by.

 

[Tsing Tao]

And what is the reason ES is up 15 points right now?

 

[shortie]

Quote from deadbroke:

Shortie, place a cushion under your butt when driving, please - you're scaring the shit out of the HERD as they see the driverless car zip by.

i like to keep them scared