BWolinsky Trading

[bwolinsky]

Quote from deaddog:

Ah but isn’t the market a discounting mechanism, a leading indicator of things to come?

Either the good news was already priced into the market before it was released or it wasn’t perceived by the other market participants as that good of news.

It is the perception of the data that moves the market, not the data itself.

Supply & Demand. Fear & Greed. Once you can program that into your formulas you’ll have it made.

Remember the old adage: “Buy the rumor sell the news.”

The Market can’t be smart or stupid, only the people playing it deserve those labels.

Here’s your sign!!!

No, my indication of where the market should move is based on the fact that all of the news reports were "positive surprises" with numbers far above consensus views. That implies that the numbers and their positive economic implications <b>were not priced in!</b> Therefore, we should go higher. Stupid, as I would say, but there's a lot more than blanket generalized statement behind my remark, and any amount of reading into my background would tell you I don't just say that to be saying it.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from bwolinsky:

No, my indication of where the market should move is based on the fact that all of the news reports were "positive surprises" with numbers far above consensus views. That implies that the numbers and their positive economic implications <b>were not priced in!</b> Therefore, we should go higher. Stupid, as I would say, but there's a lot more than blanket generalized statement behind my remark, and any amount of reading into my background would tell you I don't just say that to be saying it.

I quess we'll have to let the "Stupid Market" be the judge.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from deaddog:

I quess we'll have to let the "Stupid Market" be the judge.

It's not stupid all the time. If I see a piece of data that insiders know about that I won't know about till it's released, then it becomes a smart market. Till then, just as in the 2nd quarter of 2008, there was never any indication of poor economic data until after we had crashed.

It's the investing public's fault that they hold professionals responsible for knowing key economic data before it is released. You can only do so much, and we were well off our highs before there was even a negative quarter in GDP.

 

[bwolinsky]

QLD Projection: 53.9754494216416 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121
QLD Projection: 47.6947276722301 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121
QLD Projection: 49.042856888544 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121

Looks like the second QLD value is starting to point toward a lower market.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from bwolinsky:

QLD Projection: 53.9754494216416 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121
QLD Projection: 47.6947276722301 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121
QLD Projection: 49.042856888544 QLD Close: 48.4099998474121

QLD Projection: 51.3069430424617 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242
QLD Projection: 47.0643640691584 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242
QLD Projection: 48.1874285016741 QLD Close: 48.5699996948242

Big moves downward for the predicted values. Certainly would expect to see more movement down, but it looks like CSCO could reverse that at the moment.

Back into a fair value range, and I was out of QLD at 48.94 on the open.

 

[bwolinsky]

8,346,733 views +1

QLD Projection: 45.0720878852593 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332
QLD Projection: 48.7389088023792 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332
QLD Projection: 48.2794281369164 QLD Close: 53.7599983215332

Started Pairs Trading QID QLD 2.0 on a good note. Got some subs, and haven't done squat with Cash Cow for a long time. Probably won't be renewing Cash Cow.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from deaddog:

I quess we'll have to let the "Stupid Market" be the judge.

I believe the stupid market has turned to a smart one. Might be time to start selling short. I have no signals, though, and if you didn't notice, we are near our 52 week highs.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from bwolinsky:

It's not stupid all the time. If I see a piece of data that insiders know about that I won't know about till it's released, then it becomes a smart market. Till then, just as in the 2nd quarter of 2008, there was never any indication of poor economic data until after we had crashed.

It's the investing public's fault that they hold professionals responsible for knowing key economic data before it is released. You can only do so much, and we were well off our highs before there was even a negative quarter in GDP.

I should point out that I was absolutely right about the market being stupid on that day. As I said, it's not stupid all the time. The past 7 trading days have brought us back to where we should be. I think we're going a little bit higher before the next pullback.

 

[bwolinsky]

Quote from bwolinsky:

The market can be smart when it behaves rationally to economic data.

The data marks the start of the recovery. We got our first positive quarter of GDP growth, followed by an ISM that showed manufacturing expansion. Home sales were outstanding, and way off their low. The reports we get from the Fed will likely confirm for the market that the recovery is just getting started, and I see tens of percent of upside a year from now. Hence, the phrase stupid describes any sell off for the next six months. I'm thinking 3 to 1 odds we might actually see growth in jobs on friday, and that would be an off to the races moment.

Just as it was stupid for the median price to book ratio to be below 0.7 in March, I see the same mispricing of securities taking place right now, where emotion in the form of fear of another 50% drop accentuates market moves to the downside, while limiting upside.

If you're thinking cash for clunkers is why we're higher, think again. This program barely paid out five billion dollars, if that, and considering our economy has an Annual GDP around $14 trillion, five billion is completely negligible.

This quote was from 11/2 in the evening at 7:14 pm. The market got much smarter while I was on vacation in Chicago. I think we have a percent or so to go before being overvalued. Fairly valued currently, so no position either way is required.

 

[deaddog]

Quote from bwolinsky:

I should point out that I was absolutely right about the market being stupid on that day.

It's one thing to right but did your being right make you any money? Not on covestor.