How unfair it will be then when the Q's see 25 before they ever see 50.
BWolinsky Trading
- Thread starter bwolinsky
- Start date
- Status
How unfair it will be then when the Q's see 25 before they ever see 50.
q's going to 39ish within the next week (if weak) to two (if strong). If it takes two, I believe the probability of a sideways market is much higher than if it hits that point immediately. If it hits it fast, next leg down is 36ish. If it gets to the 36 level, it should prove to be very strong support.
Started a new system called Pairs Trading QID QLD 2.0, because that's the model I'm working with as I like to call it.
Long + Short
Starting Capital $25,000.00
Ending Capital $924,211.40
Net Profit $899,211.40
Net Profit % 3596.85%
Annualized Gain % 197.88%
What excites me is the nearly 10:1 Calmar Ratio, which is calculated as APR to drawdown percentage.
Exposure 54.05%
Number of Trades 86
Avg Profit/Loss $10,455.95
Avg Bars Held 2.8
Winning Trades 64
Winning % 74.42%
Gross Profit $1,513,186.92
Largest Winning Trades $182,110.66
Avg Profit $23,643.55
Avg Bars Held 2.88
Max Consecutive 10
Losing Trades 22
Losing % 25.58%
Gross Loss ($613,975.52)
Largest Losing Trade ($96,804.79)
Avg Loss ($27,907.98)
Avg Bars Held 2.59
Max Consecutive 2
Max Drawdown ($119,479.69)
Max Drawdown Date 10/1/2009
Max Drawdown % -20.50%
Max Drawdown % Date 11/3/2008
APD 0.7411
APAD 1.6758
Wealth-Lab Score 291.0842
RAR 366.1388
MAR 9.6534
Profit Factor 2.4646
Recovery Factor 7.5261
Sharpe Ratio 2.1024
Sortino Ratio 5.6681
Ulcer Index 6.4002
WL Error Term 9.191
WL Reward Ratio 21.5303
Luck Coefficient 7.7023
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.7775
Equity Drop Ratio 0.0204
K-Ratio 0.4103
Seykota Lake Ratio 0.0466
Expectancy 0.6175
Expectancy Score 15.5482
Max Losers Held 1
Max Winners Held 1
We are up after hours. I think we should have had more follow through on the rally. The reversal was completely overdone, and stupid. The market wants to go higher, and I'm sure we'll get our confirmation of <i>marked</i> improvement throughout the economy from the Fed this week.
Long + Short
Starting Capital $25,000.00
Ending Capital $924,211.40
Net Profit $899,211.40
Net Profit % 3596.85%
Annualized Gain % 197.88%
What excites me is the nearly 10:1 Calmar Ratio, which is calculated as APR to drawdown percentage.
Exposure 54.05%
Number of Trades 86
Avg Profit/Loss $10,455.95
Avg Bars Held 2.8
Winning Trades 64
Winning % 74.42%
Gross Profit $1,513,186.92
Largest Winning Trades $182,110.66
Avg Profit $23,643.55
Avg Bars Held 2.88
Max Consecutive 10
Losing Trades 22
Losing % 25.58%
Gross Loss ($613,975.52)
Largest Losing Trade ($96,804.79)
Avg Loss ($27,907.98)
Avg Bars Held 2.59
Max Consecutive 2
Max Drawdown ($119,479.69)
Max Drawdown Date 10/1/2009
Max Drawdown % -20.50%
Max Drawdown % Date 11/3/2008
APD 0.7411
APAD 1.6758
Wealth-Lab Score 291.0842
RAR 366.1388
MAR 9.6534
Profit Factor 2.4646
Recovery Factor 7.5261
Sharpe Ratio 2.1024
Sortino Ratio 5.6681
Ulcer Index 6.4002
WL Error Term 9.191
WL Reward Ratio 21.5303
Luck Coefficient 7.7023
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.7775
Equity Drop Ratio 0.0204
K-Ratio 0.4103
Seykota Lake Ratio 0.0466
Expectancy 0.6175
Expectancy Score 15.5482
Max Losers Held 1
Max Winners Held 1
We are up after hours. I think we should have had more follow through on the rally. The reversal was completely overdone, and stupid. The market wants to go higher, and I'm sure we'll get our confirmation of <i>marked</i> improvement throughout the economy from the Fed this week.
Too much technical jargon for me. How do you calculate for stupid?
blowinsky
por que no te callas?
por que no te callas?
+1Quote from deaddog:
Reminds me of the person who hits their thumb with a hammer and calls the hammer stupid.
Quote from deaddog:
Can you expand on this statement.
What criteria do you use to determine overdone and stupid?
Can the market be smart?
Wouldn't it be more politically correct to refer to the market as "challenged".
Reminds me of the person who hits their thumb with a hammer and calls the hammer stupid.
The market can be smart when it behaves rationally to economic data.
The data marks the start of the recovery. We got our first positive quarter of GDP growth, followed by an ISM that showed manufacturing expansion. Home sales were outstanding, and way off their low. The reports we get from the Fed will likely confirm for the market that the recovery is just getting started, and I see tens of percent of upside a year from now. Hence, the phrase stupid describes any sell off for the next six months. I'm thinking 3 to 1 odds we might actually see growth in jobs on friday, and that would be an off to the races moment.
Just as it was stupid for the median price to book ratio to be below 0.7 in March, I see the same mispricing of securities taking place right now, where emotion in the form of fear of another 50% drop accentuates market moves to the downside, while limiting upside.
If you're thinking cash for clunkers is why we're higher, think again. This program barely paid out five billion dollars, if that, and considering our economy has an Annual GDP around $14 trillion, five billion is completely negligible.
Ah but isnât the market a discounting mechanism, a leading indicator of things to come?
Either the good news was already priced into the market before it was released or it wasnât perceived by the other market participants as that good of news.
It is the perception of the data that moves the market, not the data itself.
Supply & Demand. Fear & Greed. Once you can program that into your formulas youâll have it made.
Remember the old adage: âBuy the rumor sell the news.â
The Market canât be smart or stupid, only the people playing it deserve those labels.
Hereâs your sign!!!
- Status