Clearly he is talking about two different things, one which occurred about midday on 8-31-09 [the 10:01 AM 9-1-09 comment] and the other which took place in the AM of 9-2-09 [the 5:09 PM 9-1-09 comment]. The two events are related and whether or not the consequences of their occurence turn out as he indicates, has yet to be seen. As ehorn has pointed out, the first part of the sequence is playing out as expected.
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BWolinsky Trading
- Thread starter bwolinsky
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Clearly he is talking about two different things, one which occurred about midday on 8-31-09 [the 10:01 AM 9-1-09 comment] and the other which took place in the AM of 9-2-09 [the 5:09 PM 9-1-09 comment]. The two events are related and whether or not the consequences of their occurence turn out as he indicates, has yet to be seen. As ehorn has pointed out, the first part of the sequence is playing out as expected.
Quote from Trader666:
Put down the koolaid cup and please tell me how Wednesday was the most significant turning point in 53 years.
I'm not saying it was, just that it was unambiguous that it was a call up, but it doesn't matter because I made the same call myself, and there's no evidence Jack traded anything. If you looked at his chart you never would have bought in. His call was to go in short and reverse to the long side at 990, which never happened, so I'd have to say there was never any entry.
I see no economic evidence that it was the most significant turning point in 53 years. In fact I heard we lost another 500k+ jobs, so I don't think I really care about what Jack has to say. He'd have to come back on and tell us when the move down happens. I'm still quasi long with my client accounts since my asset based fee is directly linked with the growth in assets, you could say I'm always in the market in some way, but not quite the same way that people or I trade stocks or moves in the market.
I don't see why this is even a turning point either. In fact, I'm sure we'll go down a few days from now and I'll be buying on the dip on QLD once more.
QLD Projection: 48.610285119696 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
QLD Projection: 44.57672736428 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
QLD Projection: 45.7967621212914 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
First projection is starting from a pretty low point, so I'd say the latter two projections are more in synch with where I see the market headed. QLD would have to increase a lot.
The Price for QID is projected to be $25.0129492413867with a close of $25.3999996185303
QLD is estimated that it needs to drop about 9% to be overbought, or another 4.5% up on the market.
Quote from Topper:
Here's something tangible-
My buddy's print finish shop's books are finally back to break even, and the work is stacking up. He does high end print finishing which deals with high end clients.
Typical print shops don't have these unique machines because typical printers mass produce, and print finishing is specialty image enhancing work.
Anyway, the point is that his type of business is the 3rd or 4th domino to fall in a recovering economy.
Another notch or two of demand and he's hiring.
It is <i>something</i> tangible.
Quote from bwolinsky:
It is <i>something</i> tangible.
To elaborate further, current orders are from Ferrari, MGM Grand, L. Mason Capitani (commercial r.e. broker), and e Title (largest online title co.).
When these types of companies order, they don't request only a few thousand 'impressions'. what I've noticed was he went from dead to a trickle to actually kinda slammed right now. I'm interested in seeing if there is a correlation with the market. Hypothetically, if the s & p moved positive to and steady with his rate of demand, it would be somewhere between 1050 to 1100 in around two months! (lol)
What he wrote at 09-01-09 08:09 PM certainly did NOT pan out:
"For those interested, tomorrow will mirror today... As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747
"For those interested, tomorrow will mirror today... As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747
Quote from ljyoung:
Clearly he is talking about two different things... As ehorn has pointed out, the first part of the sequence is playing out as expected.
Quote from Trader666:
What he wrote at 09-01-09 08:09 PM certainly did NOT pan out:
"For those interested, tomorrow will mirror today... As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747
Agreed. Tomorrow did not mirror today. As for the second part of your snippet, the 'turning point thingy', that remains to be seen.
9-2-09 demonstrates what I would call an unpleasant, lateral price movement - hard to infallibly know when one of those will pop up. There are those who can trade that sort of mess with facility. I'm not yet one of them. Very clearly though, 9-3 and 9-4 moved in the anticipated direction.
The attached is my QDOS score for the last year. QDOS is a ranking of how impactful, insightful, and how much people pay attention to you on the internet. Currently I'm at 57,529 from 69,590 with Britney Spears near the top, and I can be found on all of these sites, and I only know about some of these by googling my name, which I encourage anyone to do if you're curious about digging up dirt about people. Luckily I'm pretty clean, and there's some pretty old links here, but it's fun for me to see I'm far more paid attention to than thousands of others that have their own qdos score. I can be found on the following sites:
Blogger Blogger
Blogger Facebook
elitetrader.com covestor.com
scf-ia.com trewfinance.com
wealth-lab.com selfgrowth.com
blogcatalog.com advisorworld.com
collective2.com gobignetwork.com
collective2.com genworth.com
icahnreport.com wiseradvisor.com
finantic.de thestreet.com
wiseradvisor.com centre.edu
wl4.wealth-lab.com people.moreheadstate.edu
washingtonwatch.com
I seem to think this is somewhat correlated with my C2 rating of 962 mostly.
Blogger Blogger
Blogger Facebook
elitetrader.com covestor.com
scf-ia.com trewfinance.com
wealth-lab.com selfgrowth.com
blogcatalog.com advisorworld.com
collective2.com gobignetwork.com
collective2.com genworth.com
icahnreport.com wiseradvisor.com
finantic.de thestreet.com
wiseradvisor.com centre.edu
wl4.wealth-lab.com people.moreheadstate.edu
washingtonwatch.com
I seem to think this is somewhat correlated with my C2 rating of 962 mostly.
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Quote from bwolinsky:
This is about the only fact I think Jack had called correctly.
I'm glad you qualified your impression bwo. No doubt it did not escape you that even though 9-2 was not the most fun sort of day for most traders, it did mark the bottom of the current run down for the ESU9 contract which as you'll remember started to fall off several days ago.
But enough blabbing about things gone by. I read above (9-4-09 5:23 PM) it's your impression that although ... I don't see why this is even a turning point either. In fact, I'm sure we'll go down a few days from now.... Could you be any more specific with respect to the timing? Like next Tuesday or maybe Friday or maybe not till options expiration week, etc. Any thoughts? Saying that the market is going to go down a few days after it went up, is a tad on the vague side.
Quote from ljyoung:
I'm glad you qualified your impression bwo. No doubt it did not escape you that even though 9-2 was not the most fun sort of day for most traders, it did mark the bottom of the current run down for the ESU9 contract which as you'll remember started to fall off several days ago.
But enough blabbing about things gone by. I read above (9-4-09 5:23 PM) it's your impression that although ... I don't see why this is even a turning point either. In fact, I'm sure we'll go down a few days from now.... Could you be any more specific with respect to the timing? Like next Tuesday or maybe Friday or maybe not till options expiration week, etc. Any thoughts? Saying that the market is going to go down a few days after it went up, is a tad on the vague side.
Well, I try to clarify my short term views with the QLD posts of projections and closing prices, but I only have the last day to go off of, and we approached an overbought level, and I think it'll be a couple days before we cross into overvalued territory, and then the next day going short. So maybe I'll be short in 3 days if the market keeps increasing the next two days.
QLD Projection: 48.610285119696 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
QLD Projection: 44.57672736428 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
QLD Projection: 45.7967621212914 QLD Close: 46.4599990844727
When I post this, you're getting a range of projections for where the market could head. When the market moves up, we move more toward overvaluation, and when the market moves down, we move toward undervaluation, and that's expectational of volatility based overbought, oversold indicators that normalize and are in fair value ranges I just calculated 65% of the time.
Right now we're positively above normalized volatility ranges, but we're not to overbought ranges. A cross under oversold values triggers an entry into QLD only if the projected value is greater than it's current close.
Right now the way you should read the first QLD projection is that it needs to go to at least 48.61 to be considered overvalued. As long as there's a value that is projected to be higher than QLD's close, it won't matter if we crossover an overbought level, because we'll be projected higher. In most cases I can see this coming on the day it happens, but obviously I don't really want to divulge that information in real time.
My prediction aren't etched in stone because anything can happen. We could go all the way from being near overbought levels to being totally oversold, and it was happening a lot when QID was higher, but the volatility ranges widened considerably and required greater moves which kept me out of the market for weeks on end.
In fact you can see with PTQQS I once traded QLD at $73 after buying at $78 and it was about two months before I bought QLD back at around 26. What kept me out was projections for the market going lower, all the while the whole time we were theoretically overbought, but the projection was always less that where we closed. I recall one day QLD closing at 50 about and projected to be 30. These were real steep inclines, and a lot of my success with PTQQS isn't just about overbought or oversold indicators as much as it is about projections for fair value. How that's calculated is with statistical indicators I've only found in WL4, and haven't move to WL5 because they are still writting the software packages for the indicators.
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