Quote from ericmindich:
Everyone is mocking you at this point because you are simply not being honest. Thats all...
Rennick, I have not lied about anything in this thread.
I've shown the systems I'm examing right now and made the distinction over what is being used with real money and what's being experimented on. I've stated I'm a level II CFA Candidate and RIA Rep. I've stated I manage millions of dollars, and, I was recently sent a letter of interest in Pairs Trading QID QLD Scalper in the amount of a $5 million equity investment. None of these facts are lies.
Most of the problem has been with Jack's system. It needs mods, and, after the mods, those were the results I was able to generate. How? Experience. Optimization does work when it's done properly, and that was proper optimization as the theories and formulas have been known for at least 10 years now.
What you're saying is that because I remove the sell on close that get these results:
All Trades Long Trades Short Trades Buy & Hold
Starting Capital $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00
Ending Capital $1,230,029.89 $1,230,029.89 $1,000,000.00 $380,793.20
Net Profit $230,029.89 $230,029.89 $0.00 ($619,206.80)
Net Profit % 23.00% 23.00% 0.00% -61.92%
Annualized Gain % 29.45% 29.45% 0.00% -69.99%
Exposure 12.13% 12.13% 0.00% 354.55%
Total Commission ($624.00) ($624.00) $0.00 ($8.00)
Return on Cash $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Margin Interest Paid $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Dividends Received $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Number of Trades 39 39 0 1
Average Profit $5,898.20 $5,898.20 $0.00 ($619,206.80)
Average Profit % 0.39% 0.39% 0.00% -30.95%
Average Bars Held 8.85 8.85 0.00 5,249.00
Winning Trades 25 25 0 0
Win Rate 64.10% 64.10% 0.00% 0.00%
Gross Profit $1,045,603.07 $1,045,603.07 $0.00 $0.00
Average Profit $41,824.12 $41,824.12 $0.00 $0.00
Average Profit % 2.13% 2.13% 0.00% 0.00%
Average Bars Held 7.44 7.44 0.00 0.00
Max Consecutive Winners 4 4 0 0
Losing Trades 14 14 0 1
Loss Rate 35.90% 35.90% 0.00% 100.00%
Gross Loss ($815,573.18) ($815,573.18) $0.00 ($619,206.80)
Average Loss ($58,255.23) ($58,255.23) $0.00 ($619,206.80)
Average Loss % -2.73% -2.73% 0.00% -30.95%
Average Bars Held 11.36 11.36 0.00 5,249.00
Max Consecutive Losses 3 3 0 1
Maximum Drawdown ($523,457.68) ($523,457.68) $0.00 ($973,654.28)
Maximum Drawdown Date 11/21/2008 11/21/2008 9/2/2008 3/6/2009
Maximum Drawdown % -41.45% -41.45% 0.00% -97.37%
Maximum Drawdown % Date 11/21/2008 11/21/2008 6/22/2009 3/6/2009
Wealth-Lab Score 142.15 142.15 0.00 -38.96
Sharpe Ratio 0.83 0.83 0.00 -0.22
Profit Factor 1.28 1.28 0.00 0.00
Recovery Factor 0.44 0.44 0.00 0.00
Payoff Ratio 0.78 0.78 0.00 0.00
That the system is invalid? I don't think that's right. Obviously you've got to hold to be successful with the system. Then one more mod to changing the first derivative to 0.2 and below. I don't consider that curve fitting.