Quote from asiaprop:
take it with a grain of salt but could it be that you sometimes attempt to reason with people who really can't be reasoned with?
In the end you are your own judge I just think you really waste your time treating this guy with a level of respect he clearly does not deserve. I mean a guy claiming to be running millions and citing C2 as his point of reference. And J.H....and...and...and. From previous posts I take it he has put in serious time on backtesting ideas and the like but everything he said points to the simple fact that he never found what he was looking for and he now lives in this imaginary world of managing funds for others with a system he even believes by himself it spots decent risk numbers. I still fail to see where he wanted to get to with this thread but he just mentioned its for his amusement, which means he is wasting everyone elses' time. I was hoping for some valuable discussion of ideas/strategies/system design, wrong place...
Have fun guys.
I'll be posting the real VWAP fills from PTQQS, the C2 fills, and the bid and ask when the order was submitted to determine efficiency.
The cash cow from bwolinsky is the only paper trading portion of this thread currently. But I would wager since it's live that the results will be positve, but it's a question of how positive.
Why don't we discuss Superbands then?
The first portion of this system was written in WL4 years ago now.
All Trades Long Trades Short Trades Buy & Hold
Starting Capital $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00
Ending Capital $39,691,064.40 $39,691,064.40 $1,000,000.00 $20,100,831.69
Net Profit $38,691,064.40 $38,691,064.40 $0.00 $19,100,831.69
Net Profit % 3,869.11% 3,869.11% 0.00% 1,910.08%
Annualized Gain % 26.96% 26.96% 0.00% 21.48%
Exposure 7.60% 7.60% 0.00% 105.44%
Total Commission ($425,568.00) ($425,568.00) $0.00 ($2,133.18)
Return on Cash $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Margin Interest Paid $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Dividends Received $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Number of Trades 26,599 26,599 0 99
Average Profit $1,454.61 $1,454.61 $0.00 $192,937.69
Average Profit % 1.43% 1.43% 0.00% 956.62%
Average Bars Held 2.00 2.00 0.00 3,241.46
Winning Trades 16,436 16,436 0 85
Win Rate 61.79% 61.79% 0.00% 85.86%
Gross Profit $76,530,527.75 $76,530,527.75 $0.00 $19,265,889.10
Average Profit $4,656.27 $4,656.27 $0.00 $226,657.52
Average Profit % 4.53% 4.53% 0.00% 1,123.88%
Average Bars Held 2.00 2.00 0.00 3,387.94
Max Consecutive Winners 157 157 0 26
Losing Trades 10,163 10,163 0 14
Loss Rate 38.21% 38.21% 0.00% 14.14%
Gross Loss ($37,839,463.35) ($37,839,463.35) $0.00 ($165,057.41)
Average Loss ($3,723.26) ($3,723.26) $0.00 ($11,789.81)
Average Loss % -3.58% -3.58% 0.00% -58.87%
Average Bars Held 2.00 2.00 0.00 2,352.14
Max Consecutive Losses 100 100 0 2
Maximum Drawdown ($4,372,887.94) ($4,372,887.94) $0.00 ($18,379,600.92)
Maximum Drawdown Date 11/20/2008 11/20/2008 1/13/1994 11/20/2008
Maximum Drawdown % -11.90% -11.90% 0.00% -66.19%
Maximum Drawdown % Date 9/21/2001 9/21/2001 6/22/2009 10/7/2002
Wealth-Lab Score 312.62 312.62 0.00 6.89
Sharpe Ratio 1.48 1.48 0.00 0.77
Profit Factor 2.02 2.02 0.00 116.72
Recovery Factor 8.85 8.85 0.00 1.04
Payoff Ratio 1.27 1.27 0.00 19.09
What's the biggest flaw? Number of trades. Far too many trades for anybody handle. It would require a lot of effort to automate the thing, and off the shelf technology isn't even available for such a simplistic system of buying at 5.5% below the 10, 1.5 bollinger band in 0.25% lower increments ten times and selling on the open.
http://wl4.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=50128
Sharpe wasn't bad, and that test is since 1/1/1994 so it's definitely statistically significant.
Public system. Never traded it, though.