BWolinsky Trading
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Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Much much better than the claptrap and nonsense spewn on the Board by jack hershey and his loyal band of mindless drones.
BTW, I'm still waiting to see the market commentary and live calls made by ... any of you.
Ooops! I forgot to mention the overuse of bold lettering (and underlining too).
You mean like a kind of play by play thingy. You're performimg as, to use a word, anticipated. I'm curious, market wizmaven that you are, do you have any stats on the accuracy of your bold, insightful calls on market direction? I was like totally impressed with your observation that a sideways moving market followed by an upmove indicates accumulation. Next time call the direction while we are still in the sideways movement. Of course if you read what was said earlier you'll find that some saw the bottom on 9-2. As for future calls read one of my posts above.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
BTW, I'm still waiting to see the market commentary and live calls made by ... any of you.
Mandy, you have it here, and it's about what I expected. Wasn't it what you expected? I saw an ambiguous call referencing a 53 year trading career saying it's that significant a turning point. Well, it happened to rise, but what we'll never know is when to get out, and years down the road when the market goes back to its all time highs people will just keep saying you heard it here first. And you've always wondered what call Jack would make, and it just so happened to coincide with one of my own trades. I would remind that Hershey's stuff is the only non-auditable results being recorded here. If I find Hershey's stuff wins I might trade it.
Better than the crayola charts that your crowd uses, ROTFLMAO.
Still waiting for those live calls from sucker crowd (that includes anyone and everyone who follows jack hershey).
Duh, what exactly is the point of making fantasy calls before the market shows its hand?
Oh, right, to impresses stupid ass NOOBs like yourself and the other jack hershey followers, right? :eek:
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Better than the crayola charts that your crowd uses, ROTFLMAO.
Still waiting for those live calls from sucker crowd (that includes anyone and everyone who follows jack hershey).
Duh, what exactly is the point of making fantasy calls before the market shows its hand?
Oh, right, to impresses stupid ass NOOBs like yourself and the other jack hershey followers, right? :eek:
Wowee. That's mindless powerful PeeWee Herman kind o' stuff, MBS. So let me see if I follow your train of illogical thought. When the market 'shows its hand' is when you make your 'live' call. So like you're on the 'ES' thread and you say something like, "blah, blah ... 923 or 1015 or whatever" and "blah, blah ... at 9:23 or 10:15 or whatever" and the reason you're saying this stuff is because the 'market has shown its hand' to you. Is that how it is?
Yes, I've made live calls on the ES thread ... something your group has never been able to do with any consistency.
LOL.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Yes, I've made live calls on the ES thread ... something your group has never been able to do with any consistency.
LOL.
As requested earlier MBS, what is your success rate [#correct calls/total calls]? WIth what rigour do you determine this rate?
As we both know, even if you were correct only 50% of the time (a coin toss in other words) you could still be profitable, depending on the nature of your setup and your ability to control risk. Regrettably, many do not get to the 'level' of a coin toss, for whatever reasons. The 'house' maintains a favorable percentage and in the end beats you up and takes your lunch money. Probabilistic trading can of course be profitable but for many it isn't.
The Hershey method is non-probabilistic. It is a Boolean construct where P for a certain condition = either 0 or 1. Where you get screwed with this method, IMO, is when you either don't recognize that a condition has been fulfilled and the P for it now = 1 or you think you have recognized a condition and believe P for it = 1, when in reality you erred. The condition has not been fulfilled and hence P = 0.
So either method of trading provides ample opportunity for you to blow up. The advantage of the Hershey method is this. When you get it, when you 'see' what the market is telling you, you can spend most of your time on a hold and forget about all the contrived undulations that the smart money constructs for you.
The market is rigged but only in the sense that the smart money has a certain way of doing business. If you know what that 'way' is you can, like them, make huge amounts of money. How you get to that point is up to you. The Hershey method is one way and possibly there are others but FWIW, I haven't seen anything else which comes even close to what one can do with what he has elaborated.
That's it for me on this thread. Thank you bwo for tolerating the intrusion. Good trading to you and you too, MBS.
That was a very interesting theory/conceptualization of how the market works, one which I agree with.
Good trading to you to.
http://www.collective2.com/how_hypo_technical.htm
Above is a link that explains c2's technical procedures for "filling" hypothetical trades. By me reading this, it appears everything is filled as you would get in the market. You'd get the ask on a buy, and the bid on a sell. C2 then calculates a realism factor based on that particular securities level of volume on the exact tick you entered the order.
I do admit Cash Cow is hypothetical, both in research and in implementation, but I seriously take issue with anybody saying that the results would be <i>materially different</i> from what is posted.
On the other hand we have another website that tracks real life broker trades called covestor. Those trades are taken out of brokerage accounts and posted with the real life fills. Having re-read some of my posts in this thread it looks like I have positive slippage in PTQQS from real life to model price fills. I would attribute this to my broker, Fidelity Investments, who I would highly recommend for EOD rule-based strategy trading.
If someone can tell me why slippage would be anymore than 5 cents greater or less than what c2's posting, I would love to hear it, because I don't see any possibility that that would change any of your real results significantly from what's posted on c2.
Anyway, at some point, I will be trading Cash Cow in IB. I think this month will give it a good test. Up until this point, there have been circumstances beyond my control that have kept it from functioning properly, and I'm sure one day Fidelity execs might find this thread and bust some heads over my legitimate complaints about their datafeed. (I wouldn't be the first to complain, though).
I hope everyone enjoys the day off tomorrow, because Tuesday will be the last day off from the market till Thanksgiving. I plan on spending time with the wifey, and maybe going to a movie. Just had a ribeye at Longhorn with one watermellon margarita, fries, mashed potatoes, and onion rings. So good.
Above is a link that explains c2's technical procedures for "filling" hypothetical trades. By me reading this, it appears everything is filled as you would get in the market. You'd get the ask on a buy, and the bid on a sell. C2 then calculates a realism factor based on that particular securities level of volume on the exact tick you entered the order.
I do admit Cash Cow is hypothetical, both in research and in implementation, but I seriously take issue with anybody saying that the results would be <i>materially different</i> from what is posted.
On the other hand we have another website that tracks real life broker trades called covestor. Those trades are taken out of brokerage accounts and posted with the real life fills. Having re-read some of my posts in this thread it looks like I have positive slippage in PTQQS from real life to model price fills. I would attribute this to my broker, Fidelity Investments, who I would highly recommend for EOD rule-based strategy trading.
If someone can tell me why slippage would be anymore than 5 cents greater or less than what c2's posting, I would love to hear it, because I don't see any possibility that that would change any of your real results significantly from what's posted on c2.
Anyway, at some point, I will be trading Cash Cow in IB. I think this month will give it a good test. Up until this point, there have been circumstances beyond my control that have kept it from functioning properly, and I'm sure one day Fidelity execs might find this thread and bust some heads over my legitimate complaints about their datafeed. (I wouldn't be the first to complain, though).
I hope everyone enjoys the day off tomorrow, because Tuesday will be the last day off from the market till Thanksgiving. I plan on spending time with the wifey, and maybe going to a movie. Just had a ribeye at Longhorn with one watermellon margarita, fries, mashed potatoes, and onion rings. So good.
Wrong.
There's nothing that "remains to be seen." All we need do is apply common sense to see that Jack's prediction was wrong on the face of it.
Let's review what Jack wrote:
"As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747
No matter how high or low the market goes from here, there were more significant turning points in the last two years... we don't need to go back 53 years. If the market goes to zero from here, the high of Oct 07 was a more significant turning point. If it goes to the moon, the March 09 turning point of 666 was more significant.
Either way he's wrong.
There's nothing that "remains to be seen." All we need do is apply common sense to see that Jack's prediction was wrong on the face of it.
Let's review what Jack wrote:
"As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2560747#post2560747
No matter how high or low the market goes from here, there were more significant turning points in the last two years... we don't need to go back 53 years. If the market goes to zero from here, the high of Oct 07 was a more significant turning point. If it goes to the moon, the March 09 turning point of 666 was more significant.
Either way he's wrong.
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