Quote from bwolinsky:
Exactly, that's what backtesting is for. It's to help see how much you might lose, but as to blowing out an account, not likely, especially on ETFs, and in line with backtested norms.
And, to even better answer your question, I knew a quantitative finance manager of the hilliard lyons senbanc fund. He didn't believe in backtesting, but had he done it would have seen his model lose nearly everything every ten years. That ticker is SENBX. Backtesting hasn't been available to professionals till recently. It's gaining acceptance, especially for pairs trading and fundamental models.
I'm just saying, you seem to be bragging a little. Usually that hinders rather than helps performance. Best to just focus on the work and if you are good, let the results speak for themselves.