Quote from exQQQQseme:
About two weeks ago in the Scott Kramer forum at Optionetics, I mentioned that for some unknown reason, the IV of the short term options on AAPL was spiking SOONER than it normally does prior to earnings release. Sure enough. at noon a week ago, Jobs came out with his I-phone announcement and we all know what happened. . .
Bob
Bob, actually there was a very well known reason why the IV spiked sooner than usual - MacWorld. It is an annual event whereby the market has come to expect some big announcement from SJ. I haven't checked myself, but I hazard a guess that each late Dec/early Jan the IV spikes earlier than it usually does before regular earnings periods.
Anyway, on the issue raised by Ursa regarding the synthetic position you would be holding in the lead up to earnings, employing the strategy you are, he highlights a very good example of the real power of understanding synthetics. As he pointed out, you probably wouldn't really want to be holding a strangle through numbers (though I know one guys who somehow makes good dough doing just that. . .go figure). Knowing synthetics and incorporating them into your decision making process reveals 'risk' that we often don't see as being there. I learned this from someone whose knowledge of options has been seriously disparaged on this board, and yet it is pretty much the crux of the matter. Oh well!
Equally though I hear where you are coming from, if you are making money, without compromising your comfort level/risk tolerance, then sometimes that is as powerful thing as any when it comes to trading. I have seen part time traders make consistent money by being very good at one thing & using careful management of it.
Optionshouse is 9.95 and no per contract fee way cool