Buying options and avoiding crush during times of high vol

This quote is probably responsible for untold $$$$ losses over the years. I have no doubt it's true, YET the path the option takes on its way to zero is what counts.


I think i understand what you said, haha, in either case, yes i did lose a hell of a lot to get to where i am at now, not saying its perfect but when combined with the right elements can yield preservation of capital and

As far as the second part, assuming i also understood what you meant,, 90% of my times if not 99% of the time i bought options out of the money i lost, i in a way still sometimes shocked that options only 10 percent in the money sell for little extrinsic value, i often wonder who sells them and why, but i am sure there is a reason or a strategy on the other side of my bet, this saved me big time last two months with UPRO calls that i had in my IRA at 63. Although i had the balance to buy the whole shares, i did it through calls, Paid about 2 dollars per option on extrinsic, but boy, it was fucking worth it,,, i would've been down 4 times the losses had it not been in calls, before the drop, the rise up gave me just about the same delta, any ways had to get out of those leveraged etf after reading their math in depth
 
Agree.
It’s like saying 5 out of 6 times,
You’re safe playing the Russian roulette.

It’s true.
But what happens when it’s not the case ?

5 out of 6 is good odds,, hahaha, and in real roulette if you can get those odds you will make big money, dont forget its a pay out of 1 to 36 :-)
 
I'm basically saying that the 90% figure is usually a pretext by vendors to sell the uninitiated on the idea of "income trading" or "trading like a bookie", etc, etc. I've got a collection of books from over the years that are filled with this quote and sadly it never went away!

My main point is that if you were to plot an individual strike over a defined time interval, even though it might eventually end at zero, it could go from 5 to 50 or 2 to 20 or make up any number before it eventually settles back at zero. Obviously, this could be an entirely new discussion, but that was the jist of post.
 
5 out of 6 is good odds,, hahaha, and in real roulette if you can get those odds you will make big money, dont forget its a pay out of 1 to 36 :)

But if the 1 out of 6 is an extinction level event, it's terrible odds.

Rickshaw Man would talk about 70% of the time markets rise in the overnight, except that when it isn't/wasn't on robo drift higher, it would/will wipe out months worth of gains in limit down moves. It's a tough game!
 
I'm basically saying that the 90% figure is usually a pretext by vendors to sell the uninitiated on the idea of "income trading" or "trading like a bookie", etc, etc. I've got a collection of books from over the years that are filled with this quote and sadly it never went away!

My main point is that if you were to plot an individual strike over a defined time interval, even though it might eventually end at zero, it could go from 5 to 50 or 2 to 20 or make up any number before it eventually settles back at zero. Obviously, this could be an entirely new discussion, but that was the just of post.


Ah, i see what you mean and agreed, i actually saw that this week several times in positions i hold,,, the reason i probably dont see it as often as you do or as you described is my positions are usually as long as a macd signal on daily chart which typically spans a month, i dont trade often, in the sense of placing trades, maybe 6 a week tops, any ways, i got into wfc 30 calls when it was around 26ish,,, and it went up to where i was up,, then down where all of a sudden i was down again, then the same thing repeated, the third time it was down i picked up more to average it out, and rolled most of it to may just today.

Within what you said though i agree its where the money is to be made,,, yet that in itself is the whole equation, if you can time the market, then you figured out the best puzzle in the world, let aside time it with options, many times i had the position right but the timing wrong in an options sense, on to see the underlying go up or down after my positions expired, that ingrained in my the idea of not paying too much for time value to be able to stay with the position longer if i believe its still poised to the direction i anticipated in the first place
 
But if the 1 out of 6 is an extinction level event, it's terrible odds.

Rickshaw Man would talk about 70% of the time markets rise in the overnight, except that when it isn't/wasn't on robo drift higher, it would/will wipe out months worth of gains in limit down moves. It's a tough game!


Elaborate please
 
Elaborate please

Pretty basic I suppose. If I win $5 (5 out of 6 times) and lose $50 on the 6th bet, then I've lost my shirt. Now this would typically apply to someone selling naked options or trading futures without a stop loss. On the other hand, if you are a buyer of options with a guaranteed stop out (price of the option), you could flip the script and lose 5 out of 6 times and make the $50 on the 6th bet.
 
Pretty basic I suppose. If I win $5 (5 out of 6 times) and lose $50 on the 6th bet, then I've lost my shirt. Now this would typically apply to someone selling naked options or trading futures without a stop loss. On the other hand, if you are a buyer of options with a guaranteed stop out (price of the option), you could flip the script and lose 5 out of 6 times and make the $50 on the 6th bet.
Ahhh
I seee
That makes sense
 
In systems with a dumbell distribution,I have found the same thing you do.The trick is to find a syatem where you are either dead dead wrong or really right:)

Whats interesting is when I first read your criteria of not paying more than 10% of spot price over intrinsic for a 90%/spot 2 month option,I thought that was really rich. As you know,that is apx equivalant to paying 10% of spot for the 90% spot 2 month put.

Great post!!!









The corner stone of my trading is options, in matter fact a very good system i found back then that gives signals for directions years back was useless till i did it with options and proved amazing.

Any ways, high volatility or not i believe the best way to bet is always not to pay too much extrinsic value and at the same time NOT be Far OTM,, personally i use exclusively options that are 10 percent in the money where the extrinsic value is NO more than 10% of the cost of the stock itself, so a stock at 10 bucks i would be the 9 call for no more than 1.1. IF volatility is high on all which is not always the same, for example now WFC has CHEAPER options than GE, speaking in terms of percentage, Thus you must calculate on percentage basis, in times of volatility this gives you a limit on your losses and unlimited potential gain, when the gain gets too high, its significantly easier to hang on to the position by rolling it, selling the first option and rebuyin it with the same criteria, this way you lock it gains and still participate in the upside. This worked good for CCL recent weeks, WFC, and SLV


Short dated best in times of volatility because you can get the same criteria as above BUT most importantly you wont give up too much of Theta (time value) which erodes quickly when Delta becomes high, ie position goes your way. Other wise normally i play a month to two out, but now i am playing the weekly even though my position biases which i enter on MACD signal buy and sell are in for months i just roll the options, either because they are expiring or because they are profitable. Rolling the profits helps you always see your gains smaller if you get the P/L itch when gains become too big, thus this you never see big P/L open but you know you made a profit because you closed the old position.

IN case you didn't understand the Delta Theta, here is an example


WFC for example, lets say its at 30 even, you buy a call for June 27 strike for 4.0 dollars for lets say, that 3 intrinsic and 1 dollar extrinsic,,

Lets say i buy the May call same strike for 3.5, that 3 intrinsic and .5 extrinsic,, assuming we get it right and stock flies up to 40. The value of both calls will probably become the same or within a much smaller difference in cost than 50 cents because now they both are DEEP IN THE MONEY, which means they would have very little extrinsic value, plus your cost is cheaper, although you got an extra month in the other one, in times of HIGH VOLATILITY as you asked i find the extra time useless, because the stock will either go higher or lower and very fast.

In low volatility though i am definitely on the longer term ones for a bit more money because then moves are tiny and the longer duration option allows you to not pay twice for the extrinsic value, it also holds more time value should the stock drop and become completely extrinsic
 
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