Quote from TskTsk:
Because forecasting is not the same as understanding risk. You're still confusing the terms.
You stated that the Greeks are a tool to understand risk. So just how is this done?
(From glossary on optiongrees.org)
Delta: A option delta is the sensitivity of an optionâs theoretical value to a change in the price of the underlying.
If one calculates the Delta based on the variables at hand. And the Delta is .65, just what is one to do with this value, A 1 point move in the underlying should be 65 cents in the option. Is this not a forecast? The calculated Delta is rarely the true delta. If not a forecast then whats the point of using a complex formula to make the calculation. Just divide the option move by the move in the UL and bodda-bing bodda-boom you got the real delta.
Gamma: The sensitivity of an optionâs delta to a change in the price of the underlying entity. In other words, gamma measures the rate of change of delta in relation to the change in the price of the underlying entity. From this information you can make a more informed decision on predicting how much can be made or lost based on the movement of the underlying position.
Since the calculated delta is rarely the true delta, what is the value in calculating the Gamma for the past or future expectations. Ex. The UL moves up 2 points, the Call falls .15 (negative delta on calls???) ET ers will tout that this is caused by a drop in IV (Duh), this seems to imply that IV is an operand in error.
Theta: This is the sensitivity of an optionâs theoretical value to a change in the amount of time to expiration.
"Theoretical Value" being the key word here.
Vega: Vega refers to the sensitivity of an optionâs theoretical value to a change in volatility. It measures the risk exposure to changes in implied volatility and tells traders how much an optionâs price will rise or fall as the volatility of the option varies.
ET'ers tout selling or buying volatility and that's fine. But once again if the Greeks are not ment to forecast than why make the calculation for the theoretical value on being long or short vol.
So, you state The Greeks calculated today will NOT forecast any future values. The Greeks calculated the next day could be very different (most likely will) then the Greeks today. Confusing the terms ?! I think not.
Here's your chance!!! Do what no one else on ET has done. (despite my many challenges) Show us how the Greeks are a valuable tool in understand risk, show us how the Greeks aid in your trading decisions, show us how one finds opporunities with the Greeks that would be missed without. I don't want gobbely goop jargon, use real prices, real UL and as real time a can be. Real Examples !!!