Buying a Trading System, any Recommended
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What a deal! And here's a better one:
http://www.originalturtles.org/system.htm
Another Turtle system (the real one) and it's free!
By the way, my shill detector just went off...
Quote from Avalanche:
Money.
If you think about it in a discounted cash flow terms, a trading system, to be fairly valued, is the sum of the future cash flows (ie. profit) discounted at a discount rate. This discount rate would be dependant on the riskiness of the system and the credibility of the developer, etc
So in effect, it is like selling you a set of risky cash flows. (reminds you of equity...)
Why would anyone do this? to get cash up front so that they can invest it in their better systems that they have designed and use only for themselves.
...or the system itself.... how would the buyer know ?
Buying a system is like buying a car.
If you can buy a brandnew Mercedes or BMW for 2000 $ you can be sure that the car is not what you think it is. The same applies on trading systems. Sellers of these systems speculate on the greed and the wishful thinking of the potential buyers. Tell the buyer what he wants to hear and he will buy.
But be sure to sell before the buyer stops dreaming and wakes up.
If you can buy a brandnew Mercedes or BMW for 2000 $ you can be sure that the car is not what you think it is. The same applies on trading systems. Sellers of these systems speculate on the greed and the wishful thinking of the potential buyers. Tell the buyer what he wants to hear and he will buy.
But be sure to sell before the buyer stops dreaming and wakes up.
If it is for sale, it probably is not worth a crap. Do your own research, get a simulator and start designing your own sytem by trial and error. There are no shrotcuts to making money in this game. If you look for them then you will wind up with the 95% that lose.
I'm telling you
www.market-milllions.com
It's a winner....the turtles guys...they made money!!!!!!!!
www.market-milllions.com
It's a winner....the turtles guys...they made money!!!!!!!!
Few years ago the CFTC went on a rampage against all the websites and signal people for saying they make money. What is the difference now? They throw up a disclaimer saying all hypothetical, but imply throughout the sites that they and everyone who uses their services make zillions. Another useless government public relations run that has done nothing to solve any problems. I'm going to open a site with the disclaimer and give out signals and charge $2000/ month. I get 20 people and I can just do that, never have to risk my own money again, hey I guess I see what is so good about this stuff, if you are the seller. 
Ok, so it looks like the question about systems boils down to this basic question....Why do they not work?
Well, i have been in and out of the markets for approx 30 years, i traded lots of stocks and thought that was and is rather easy to do if you are smart about doing it. By that i do not mean to be a whiz, i mean just use your head as a common person would, my IQ is more than 136 but less than 150...so no MIT grad here...
I traded lots of futures over the phone lines, Yea Gads, talk about slippage. Ok, you get the picture, now for the reason for this post.............Here is a two fold reason why you could come up with a really good system (and i believe there are lots of them out there and new ones created every day) and you could publish said system in the Chicago Tribune, the NY Times, LA LA Land Gazette, etc and "YOUR" system would still be working.
The reason systems would continue to work is the same reason the basic tech stuff "STILL" works. Such as my very basic moving avg crossover and pivot point support and resist plan works for me day in and day out.
OK, here goes, The winner to loser ratio in trading is and has been rather constant for way before me and you. WHY, is that you say, i asked myself that question a few years ago also.
Here is the answer: EXPERIENCE of the PLAYERS in the game is just as constant as the ratio of winners to losers..10% winners to 90% losers...thats all there is to it. That is why the OLD FASHIONED TECHNICAL STUFF STILL WORKS, because 90% of the players do not have the experience yet to get a handle on how to do this game.
Risk and money management is "DeRiqueur" to become a winner. Many do not last, so the 10% pick the pockets of every newbie, wannabee that comes along. Quite simple!!!!!
The 10% of winning veterans are scared, mauled, probably peg legged, maybe a eye patch, short on patience (a trait from being a battle worn trader), disciplined intuitive grouchy hard nosed grumpy trader vet. A person that wants answers not explanations, wants results not hope.
So the game goes on, a constant turnover of rookies to the vets. If you want the real dough, be willing to realize your system is only special to you and you only. Give it to the papers and 99 out of 100 will tweak it to death. That is a fact, that is why the basic stuff still works.....
I forgot one important point, PUT your HEART ans SOUL into the learning period. Put this game second only to sex....
Well, i have been in and out of the markets for approx 30 years, i traded lots of stocks and thought that was and is rather easy to do if you are smart about doing it. By that i do not mean to be a whiz, i mean just use your head as a common person would, my IQ is more than 136 but less than 150...so no MIT grad here...
I traded lots of futures over the phone lines, Yea Gads, talk about slippage. Ok, you get the picture, now for the reason for this post.............Here is a two fold reason why you could come up with a really good system (and i believe there are lots of them out there and new ones created every day) and you could publish said system in the Chicago Tribune, the NY Times, LA LA Land Gazette, etc and "YOUR" system would still be working.
The reason systems would continue to work is the same reason the basic tech stuff "STILL" works. Such as my very basic moving avg crossover and pivot point support and resist plan works for me day in and day out.
OK, here goes, The winner to loser ratio in trading is and has been rather constant for way before me and you. WHY, is that you say, i asked myself that question a few years ago also.
Here is the answer: EXPERIENCE of the PLAYERS in the game is just as constant as the ratio of winners to losers..10% winners to 90% losers...thats all there is to it. That is why the OLD FASHIONED TECHNICAL STUFF STILL WORKS, because 90% of the players do not have the experience yet to get a handle on how to do this game.
Risk and money management is "DeRiqueur" to become a winner. Many do not last, so the 10% pick the pockets of every newbie, wannabee that comes along. Quite simple!!!!!
The 10% of winning veterans are scared, mauled, probably peg legged, maybe a eye patch, short on patience (a trait from being a battle worn trader), disciplined intuitive grouchy hard nosed grumpy trader vet. A person that wants answers not explanations, wants results not hope.
So the game goes on, a constant turnover of rookies to the vets. If you want the real dough, be willing to realize your system is only special to you and you only. Give it to the papers and 99 out of 100 will tweak it to death. That is a fact, that is why the basic stuff still works.....
I forgot one important point, PUT your HEART ans SOUL into the learning period. Put this game second only to sex....