Indeed flyfisher, when a national icon like GE is in trouble we are in a pretty bad shape.
Buyers Cabal?
- Thread starter gnome
- Start date
Maybe the fact that we had two consecutive 5% down days in a row - statistically a very rare event - makes it hard for the market to drop another 5% today?
I don't think you need conspiracy theories or the PPT. We're a bit stretched to the downside on the very shortterm timescale. If the market wants to go down on these NFP it still can do so over the next 10 trading days.
and that ain't any suprise either.
US economy has been based around oil and cars. Manufacturing of cars has been exported and the bottom is about to drop out of oil.
Especially when there has been a bacteria discovered that can produce oil from waste cheaper than it can be pumped out of the ground. A pilot of producing this is being set up.
Only question is if the car / oil lobby has enough cloud to wipe this discovery of the map (like a number of others, it is already very feasible to have cars that do 34 km to the liter.... the best markted are around 20 to the liter, wonder why.... - just being sarcastic here, it ain't suiting the oil and car companies...)
Maria
Quote from makloda:
You're right. The market bottom in 1974 came five full months before the official end of the recession.
It probably won't be any different this time. Just got to keep an open mind and stay flexible; a feat not easily accomplished by just anybody here, judging by the posts
There may be some among us that have objective systems to judge the situation.....
Quote from makloda:
You're right. The market bottom in 1974 came five full months before the official end of the recession.
It probably won't be any different this time. Just got to keep an open mind and stay flexible; a feat not easily accomplished by just anybody here, judging by the posts
Problem is... apparently Maria is thinking (as do I), the "fundamental bottom" is a minmum of a full year out, not just several months.
And speaking for myself, I can picture the fundy bottom coming when housing bottoms.. and THAT could be a few years out.
the economy bottomed in 2001.....the market didn't bottom until 2003.
generally yes the stock market will bottom before fundamentals and I believe it will likely do so this time around. But it is as others have stated, the economic and corporate fundamentals are likely to test current market levels. Right now we are priced in for 4th and 1st qtr. IF this building recession goes beyond the 1st qtr then I do not see OCT lows as the market bottom. The market is priced for a turn around in the economy in 3rd qtr 09. It is simple. If you think that economic scenario will play out then buy now. If you think the economy is going into a longer and deeper recession than the market has priced in then you should wait to buy.
Personally I see this being a very deep and long recession.
That tells me the market has a ways to go.
generally yes the stock market will bottom before fundamentals and I believe it will likely do so this time around. But it is as others have stated, the economic and corporate fundamentals are likely to test current market levels. Right now we are priced in for 4th and 1st qtr. IF this building recession goes beyond the 1st qtr then I do not see OCT lows as the market bottom. The market is priced for a turn around in the economy in 3rd qtr 09. It is simple. If you think that economic scenario will play out then buy now. If you think the economy is going into a longer and deeper recession than the market has priced in then you should wait to buy.
Personally I see this being a very deep and long recession.
That tells me the market has a ways to go.
No lie. Plenty still in front of us.
Remains to be seen what the final number of Home Depots and Loews that will be, have been shuttered.
Still need to see a crest in option ARM defaults. Not to mention McMansion jumbos.
The suburbs around NYC should start showing some serious cracks after the Wall Street severance packages dry up over the next 9-12 months.
Bad news priced in. The bottom was october 10, and volume seems to confirm it.