Buy the SPY

brucelevy · Nov 3, 2018

Spy likely to head higher over the rest of November with 87.36% probability based on a machine learning algorithm I’ve been running to read pattern and orderflow recognition.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 3, 2018

brucelevy said:
Spy likely to head higher over the rest of November with 87.36% probability based on a machine learning algorithm I’ve been running to read pattern and orderflow recognition.

SPY headed higher in November based upon my visual observation based on decades of experience.

Kevin Schmit · Nov 3, 2018

brucelevy said:
Spy likely to head higher over the rest of November with 87.36% probability based on a machine learning algorithm I’ve been running to read pattern and orderflow recognition.

SPY mark 271.89 as I type this, clean price about 271.10. Inverting the Diebold formula, using current VIX adjusted to root-time and Friday as a proxy for to-end-of-month vol, and fraction returns above zero as 87%, solves for an expected SPY move of about +6% between now and Nov 30th.

I'm skeptical, but good luck.

maxinger · Nov 3, 2018

I wouldn't just buy.
I will buy when it is trending up.
I will sell when it is trending down.

marc82much · Nov 3, 2018

I will buy when the moon is in the Seventh House And Jupiter aligns with Mars. Or will I sell....I forget. Maybe I will go long an ATM straddle....or is it a strangle?

Overnight · Nov 3, 2018

Kevin Schmit said:
SPY mark 271.89 as I type this, clean price about 271.10. Inverting the Diebold formula, using current VIX adjusted to root-time and Friday as a proxy for to-end-of-month vol, and fraction returns above zero as 87%, solves for an expected SPY move of about +6% between now and Nov 30th.

I'm skeptical, but good luck.

If the dems win both the House and Senate, kiss your model goodbye.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 3, 2018

Overnight said:
If the dems win both the House and Senate, kiss your model goodbye.

There is a zero chance of that

Overnight · Nov 3, 2018

Buy1Sell2 said:
There is a zero chance of that

That is a surprising statement from you. Surely you know that black swans can happen outside of finance? I am truly surprised at your thoughts on that.

Buy1Sell2 · Nov 3, 2018

Overnight said:
That is a surprising statement from you. Surely you know that black swans can happen outside of finance? I am truly surprised at your thoughts on that.

It is impossible for the Republicans to lose the Senate.

Overnight · Nov 3, 2018

Buy1Sell2 said:
It is impossible for the Republicans to lose the Senate.

Indeed. I reckon' that has something to do with the number of Republican "seats up" for the senate this year or some such? I have not paid much attention to the exacting details of what is going on in Congress, because I'm exhausted from watching this shitty October market for equities.

But something in the back of my mind keeps screaming the "what if" thing. Bad habit. Apologies.