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Buy the dip
- Thread starter galvinlee888
- Start date
you got big balls haha i think the market is a pure illusion or maybe even delusion but it is what it is. the fed really makes it hard to short big but i agree fundamentally the economy is terrible. i almost fell off my chair laughing when i heard ron insana call this a start of a secular bull market. there is no sales growth ever haha i don't know when the party will end but this is not a good economy. all i will say is markets go to extremes so nothing will shock me.
Quote from Ash1972:
The last bull market ENDED in 2000. From that point to the present we have been, and still are, in a secular bear market. When this current bounce (2009-present) collapses, we will ultimately fall below the March 2009 lows.
Quote from Ash1972:
The last bull market ENDED in 2000. From that point to the present we have been, and still are, in a secular bear market. When this current bounce (2009-present) collapses, we will ultimately fall below the March 2009 lows.
No way. I think we'll never see those Mar 2009 lows ever again. That was when market was pricing in extreme deflation and the next Great Depression. The Fed's backstopping asset prices would not allow the market to revisit those crash lows.
Quote from Visaria:
You need to look at a chart.
And you need to look at the stock market between 1968 and 1982 to have some idea of what to expect. I've really got no time for variations on "it's different this time".
Ben's money printing is nothing more than a meme which is now close to saturation. At the start of 2000 you would have said the new economy makes it impossible for stocks to go down. Now you're saying Fed liquidity makes it impossible for stocks to go down.
At the top of every bubble there is a "reason" why the market has to keep going up forever. When everyone starts to believe it and tell you that things are different this time, smart people run for the hills.
Quote from Ash1972:
And you need to look at the stock market between 1968 and 1982 to have some idea of what to expect. I've really got no time for variations on "it's different this time".
Ben's money printing is nothing more than a meme which is now close to saturation. At the start of 2000 you would have said the new economy makes it impossible for stocks to go down. Now you're saying Fed liquidity makes it impossible for stocks to go down.
At the top of every bubble there is a "reason" why the market has to keep going up forever. When everyone starts to believe it and tell you that things are different this time, smart people run for the hills.
I haven't said anything that you have attributed to me.
Fact remains, bull market from 2009 to present day. FACT.
i think he is pointing out more this is not a bull economy and that's very true. this market is a dream and will become a nightmare maybe next week or 3 years from now. we are at all time highs on the stock market on poor sales growth and fed money. is this really what you call healthy? so if the s&p lost 500 points it would not be so crazy and yes the market can go higher too. japans markets are down 20%, europe is terrible on a good day economic wise, rates are raising on there own in the bond market, they won't ever pass a budget, and there is going to be a crap storm on obama. i don't see the good news and the market has priced in a perfect game.
Quote from Visaria:
I haven't said anything that you have attributed to me.
Fact remains, bull market from 2009 to present day. FACT.
Quote from brokerboy:
i think he is pointing out more this is not a bull economy and that's very true. this market is a dream and will become a nightmare maybe next week or 3 years from now. we are at all time highs on the stock market on poor sales growth and fed money. is this really what you call healthy? so if the s&p lost 500 points it would not be so crazy and yes the market can go higher too. japans markets are down 20%, europe is terrible on a good day economic wise, rates are raising on there own in the bond market, they won't ever pass a budget, and there is going to be a crap storm on obama. i don't see the good news and the market has priced in a perfect game.
Except that the market isn't a dream, its an accurate reflection on corporate profits and the increasing influence of economic activity in new countries.
If you understand what the market represents, ownership in companies ( and related supply/demand on that ), you might stop posting this repeated emotional analysis and expecting 500 point drops when fundamentally that would be stupid.
You can predict a minor correction due to profit taking, but there really is no real catalyst at this point for anything more then that.
The only trade you seem to come up with is tiny shorts on the whole market. This isn't trading with vision. The only way you can get significant profits is to get a major correction, which is probably why you seem to be talking your book for months.
Going long in fall 2011 ( after the last correction ) and holding til anytime the last few months was an easy, reliable trade. And it wasn't hard to time or difficult to see the trend. Yet I bet many of you were so hamstrung by your emotional bias concerning the US economy you didn't profit at all from that nice move. Dreaming about recouping that miss in one easy crash is exactly that, dreaming. It may be possible, but the chances are remote for this year.
Ash is a nut. Anyone who thinks this is a secular bear market and looks back to 1982 isn't a clear, logical thinker. Trying to deny a 4 year bull market is trying to refuse reality using semantics. The semantics don't even work.
Myself, I was long large in an index fund for 11 months ending two weeks ago. I did ok but chose the wrong country which reduced my profits.
i will first say i shorted the wrong thing because i called apple and i called japan but the fool in me shorted the s&p because it seemed safer haha. if you went long in 2011 your awesome in my book. i was long but i left to early but i will remember that for next time.
the market is whatever the market wants to be and i am not foolish enough to make a major bet of the short side. i disagree with it being accurate its fed money and the idea of pushing people in risky assets by having 0 interest rates. if europe can't cost cut countries into prosperity than how US companies do that? the US government is eating the debts so companies books look healthier but show me the growth. i am just being rational so we are at all time stock market highs and all time highs of the fed pumping money into the markets. this is an accurate reflection of a good economy?
when you invest in a company its on the idea of sales growth normally. when businesses invest in a country its on the idea of growth. so you are tell me we are going from 700 to 1640 s&p without much sales growth but it will appear because companies like to wait for the 4th or 5th year in a bull market to start investing and growing there businesses. you might be very right but it sounds like a disney movie to me.
the market is whatever the market wants to be and i am not foolish enough to make a major bet of the short side. i disagree with it being accurate its fed money and the idea of pushing people in risky assets by having 0 interest rates. if europe can't cost cut countries into prosperity than how US companies do that? the US government is eating the debts so companies books look healthier but show me the growth. i am just being rational so we are at all time stock market highs and all time highs of the fed pumping money into the markets. this is an accurate reflection of a good economy?
when you invest in a company its on the idea of sales growth normally. when businesses invest in a country its on the idea of growth. so you are tell me we are going from 700 to 1640 s&p without much sales growth but it will appear because companies like to wait for the 4th or 5th year in a bull market to start investing and growing there businesses. you might be very right but it sounds like a disney movie to me.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Except that the market isn't a dream, its an accurate reflection on corporate profits and the increasing influence of economic activity in new countries.
If you understand what the market represents, ownership in companies ( and related supply/demand on that ), you might stop posting this repeated emotional analysis and expecting 500 point drops when fundamentally that would be stupid.
You can predict a minor correction due to profit taking, but there really is no real catalyst at this point for anything more then that.
The only trade you seem to come up with is tiny shorts on the whole market. This isn't trading with vision. The only way you can get significant profits is to get a major correction, which is probably why you seem to be talking your book for months.
Going long in fall 2011 ( after the last correction ) and holding til anytime the last few months was an easy, reliable trade. And it wasn't hard to time or difficult to see the trend. Yet I bet many of you were so hamstrung by your emotional bias concerning the US economy you didn't profit at all from that nice move. Dreaming about recouping that miss in one easy crash is exactly that, dreaming. It may be possible, but the chances are remote for this year.
Ash is a nut. Anyone who thinks this is a secular bear market and looks back to 1982 isn't a clear, logical thinker. Trying to deny a 4 year bull market is trying to refuse reality using semantics. The semantics don't even work.
Myself, I was long large in an index fund for 11 months ending two weeks ago. I did ok but chose the wrong country which reduced my profits.