I'll fully hedge my short if he comes out screaming again or if Thorn calls yet another top 
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***BUY, BUY, BUY or BYE, BYE, BYE?***
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
Quote from ACM Trader:
...And , so far, being long has been the way to go.
Well, can't argue with that one, but I wonder how do you know when it's "BYE-BYE" time, when you get 3 continuous 20 pt down days or when there are early signs of that occurring? That's not to say GO SHORT, perhaps lock in profits and consider your options.
And when referring to smart money, I think one needs to remember that a lot of the time it's 'them' that see the nearing end of the move or a temporary weakness in the continuation of a trend and have an 'ability' to make sure that people that came late to the party suffer the most and pretty sharpish. I am not saying that this is going to be the case by any means, I am simply saying that there is bearish pattern and I am betting on its outcome and trying to cover my ass at the same time.
Until the market shows us it wants to change direction you must as a professional continue to buy the dips.
When the market can no longer rally off of bad news and has trouble rallying on good news, stand aside.
So far the market has received all news as good, the media is partly responsible, as any negative news they off set it with the possibility for a rate cut. And when the news is good they spin it as a strong growing economy. The bond market has really made it confusing. The signs are their for a correction, Inverted yield curve.
Last week I thought was a possible turning point, but in the last 30 minutes on Friday changed everything.
Todays jobs report will be just perfect and the market will rally, buy buy buy.
When the market can no longer rally off of bad news and has trouble rallying on good news, stand aside.
So far the market has received all news as good, the media is partly responsible, as any negative news they off set it with the possibility for a rate cut. And when the news is good they spin it as a strong growing economy. The bond market has really made it confusing. The signs are their for a correction, Inverted yield curve.
Last week I thought was a possible turning point, but in the last 30 minutes on Friday changed everything.
Todays jobs report will be just perfect and the market will rally, buy buy buy.
I will now answer this pressing question of when its "bye bye" time. Simply put, when everyone feels good and everything seems up-up-up, then its time to sell.
Many younger and immature persons feel like they missed out if they missed the top. For example, those who got into Mastercard at 45 and then sold at 65. Its true, they did miss out on 35 points in appreciation, however, the point of a square profit is missed if you look at the glass half-empty.
At some point in time, you have to know when good is good enough. Most people have tunnel vision and will ultimately never sell. They will keep buying no matter what.
The guy who sold Mastercard at 65 is no fool. He made a nice profit. Believe me, there will be opportunity for him in time to buy Mastercard once more at much lower levels.
I think if a trader sold out and went on vacation right now for 3-6 months, he could probably get back into the market at much lower levels then what we are seeing.
Many younger and immature persons feel like they missed out if they missed the top. For example, those who got into Mastercard at 45 and then sold at 65. Its true, they did miss out on 35 points in appreciation, however, the point of a square profit is missed if you look at the glass half-empty.
At some point in time, you have to know when good is good enough. Most people have tunnel vision and will ultimately never sell. They will keep buying no matter what.
The guy who sold Mastercard at 65 is no fool. He made a nice profit. Believe me, there will be opportunity for him in time to buy Mastercard once more at much lower levels.
I think if a trader sold out and went on vacation right now for 3-6 months, he could probably get back into the market at much lower levels then what we are seeing.
Quote from romik:
Well, can't argue with that one, but I wonder how do you know when it's "BYE-BYE" time, when you get 3 continuous 20 pt down days or when there are early signs of that occurring? That's not to say GO SHORT, perhaps lock in profits and consider your options.
And when referring to smart money, I think one needs to remember that a lot of the time it's 'them' that see the nearing end of the move or a temporary weakness in the continuation of a trend and have an 'ability' to make sure that people that came late to the party suffer the most and pretty sharpish. I am not saying that this is going to be the case by any means, I am simply saying that there is bearish pattern and I am betting on its outcome and trying to cover my ass at the same time.