Buy and Hold SP500 Not A Good Idea Afterall....

Quote from Derrick1983:

Thanks for the reply. Any examples?
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If you are registered on TradersStudio.com you can get a special report which show how to do this using a classic intermarket S&P500 system.

If you want to know more about it please go to this link.

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=158925
 
Quote from axxs:

1990 low :294
2009 low :666
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Divide the S&P 500 Continuous by COMEX Gold Continuous.

You'll see that since August 2000, the S&P 500 last lost 83% of its value as measured against gold.

Even if the bear market is over (it isn't - the commercial RE shoe hasn't dropped yet, nor has housing bottomed), stocks would still be a mediocre investment AT BEST.

--Harold :D
 
Which is what, exactly? I'll bet that most of what you think is the "academic view" of the market are secular superstition of what the actual academic views are.

To wit, no one in academia actually believes the markets are normally distributed - just that its a easy short hand to work on certain problems and that it's fairly descriptive most of the time.

Quote from mokwit:

The whole academic view of the markets needs to be shown up as the fallacy that it is.
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Quote from GCSICLRBC:

Divide the S&P 500 Continuous by COMEX Gold Continuous.

You'll see that since August 2000, the S&P 500 last lost 83% of its value as measured against gold.

Even if the bear market is over (it isn't - the commercial RE shoe hasn't dropped yet, nor has housing bottomed), stocks would still be a mediocre investment AT BEST.

--Harold :D
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Or we could measure the s&p and gold when the bear market is over and the s&p is up 70% and gold is back where it belongs,hovering at 300 to 400 ever since the US went off the gold standard.

And why in particular August 2000 just before the market crashed?Why not use data from 1957 when the s&p 500 first came into existence?
 
Quote from axxs:

Or we could measure the s&p and gold when the bear market is over and the s&p is up 70% and gold is back where it belongs,hovering at 300 to 400 ever since the US went off the gold standard.

And why in particular August 2000 just before the market crashed?Why not use data from 1957 when the s&p 500 first came into existence?
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Dear Assxx,

You're speaking of hypotheticals: I'm speaking of actual numbers. August 2000 was a peak against gold (i.e., when stock owners were MOST WEALTHY as measured in REAL TERMS).

Do yourself a favor & bring up the chart - you'll see it.

Gold at $300 / troy oz.? You're a genuine fool. Do you know how much money printing is going on?

I do agree with you on one point. We shouldn't have left the gold standard in '33. It keeps gov't (somewhat) honest.

--H
 
Quote from GCSICLRBC:

I do agree with you on one point. We shouldn't have left the gold standard in '33. It keeps gov't (somewhat) honest.
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I don't know why goldbugs keep repeating this. For example of inflations under the gold standard: the spanish conquest of the new world. The sudden influx of gold basically expanded monetary supplies by a few hundred folds == instant hyper inflation.

Further, deflation was a real problem (some time caused by gold shipments lost to storms) - a deflationary panic like the ones in the 1900s were far more insidious and long lasting than stagflations.
 
Quote from GCSICLRBC:

Dear Assxx,

You're speaking of hypotheticals: I'm speaking of actual numbers. August 2000 was a peak against gold (i.e., when stock owners were MOST WEALTHY as measured in REAL TERMS).

Do yourself a favor & bring up the chart - you'll see it.

Gold at $300 / troy oz.? You're a genuine fool. Do you know how much money printing is going on?

I do agree with you on one point. We shouldn't have left the gold standard in '33. It keeps gov't (somewhat) honest.

--H
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whos to say stocks wont become expensive and overhyped again and gold forgotten when the next bull market comes around?

plus its kinda hard to measure stock market returns in terms of gold prices

the sp/gc ratio in 1980 = 0.16, 1990 = 1,2000=5,2007=2.5,2009=1. so according to your formula,stocks are relatively cheap now,doesnt that kind of defeats the argument?
 
Quote from axxs:

whos to say stocks wont become expensive and overhyped again and gold forgotten when the next bull market comes around?

plus its kinda hard to measure stock market returns in terms of gold prices

the sp/gc ratio in 1980 = 0.16, 1990 = 1,2000=5,2007=2.5,2009=1. so according to your formula,stocks are relatively cheap now,doesnt that kind of defeats the argument?
More...

::SIGH::

I'd like to copy + past my chart from DTN Prophet X, but I need to convert it to another format & it's not worth the trouble.

Nobody makes that claim but I think it's important to recognize that 70% of our economy is consumer based.

Housing prices shall likely fall ANOTHER 10-20% nationwide over the next 12-18 months & consumers are ALREADY tapped out.

The fundamentals just plain stink. Stocks may go higher but as an "investment" it's a suckers' bet. Trading futures & MGD. FUTURES is the only way to go. I sold all my real estate in '06 and '07. I'll jump back in maybe towards the end of this year or next year, but only if it's a foreclosure or PREforeclosure.


Gold's gained for what, SEVEN straight years? Why the inclination to berate it? Why are gold bulls called "bugs?"

I'm not a bug. ::exasperated::

It's just another form of prejudice. But then again, you probably listen to Dylan Ratigan & Jim Cramer! LOL

GL!

--Harold
 
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