Buy and Hold SP500 Not A Good Idea Afterall....

Quote from Specterx:

IMO tangible assets are the best. Real estate has been and will be a good one, but you need to buy with cash or an extremely high down payment (like 70%+), make sure to buy in a region of strong demand, and avoid buying at the tops of bubbles. I expect the winter of 2009-2010 will be a fantastic buying opp for savvy RE investors with cash to spare, who can stomach a period of flat or slightly negative growth in home values.

There's always room for buying shares, but the risks are substantial - as are the potential rewards. If one is making any kind of investment it's usually a good idea to do your research and know what you're doing. The vast majority of people never bother to do this, and honestly shouldn't be investing in the market at all.

What is your opinion on reits? Do you consider them a good buy as well?
 
I think the answer might be a portfolio of multiple asset classes that is then rebalanced yearly or bi-yearly.

I am not exactly sure who pioneered this strategy or what it is called but seems to make sense to me. It forces you to sell high and buy low.

Obviously if you have the time and the will active investing is the best bet. What I mean by this is starting a business or investing in real estate.
 
Quote from gkishot:

What is your opinion on reits? Do you consider them a good buy as well?

I don't know about REITs. The thing about RE it's feasible for one individual to do the research, do the work, and invest in specific rental props. If you want to gain exposure to other hard assets like timberlands, oilfields etc. then the capital and labor requirements are such that you're pretty much forced to go through an investment trust. I have more faith in my own ability to pick up and manage good real estate than I would in a REIT manager.
 
Only way to make money from hereon is to daytrade in my opinion.

Buy and hold - for the foreseeable future is pretty much a dead strategy.

Profit off the intraday volatility!
 
Buy and hold always has been and always will be a fallacy.

Buy and hold in any market is good in hindsight where it appears to work over a 20-50 year timespan but swing trading and trend following will always and forever be a more prudent and less "faith" based system of investing.

Taking into account any risk based statistics... buy and hold is risky because of the severe drawdowns you can experience... both in price and in time.
 
Quote from nravo:
Nikkei is a worst case scenario, a 1 percent outlyer.
The major stock index of the second largest economy in the world has been declining for 20 years. This is not an outlier.
 
Quote from pathus21:

The problem is what is the average American to do? A guy who is a professional such as a Doctor or Lawyer does not have the time nor the inclination to manage his own investments. If buy and hold doesn't work, what is the best way to invest?

I'm a Broker and IAR. I agree with all of the above posters that buy and hold, is buy and mold.

As for doctors and lawyers, I only have one MD in my book of Clients. Most MD's want to trade their own accounts. Oh yes, the difference in an MD and God? God doesn't think he's an MD.

I've got two lawyers. Most of the others I meet are un-trusting kind of people, and also "manage" their own affairs. One lost $500,000 last year out of an $800,000 account he was "managing." lol!

You'll love this. I sat in on a meeting at my former Firm's request to explain to a group of ambulance chasing lawyers that if they are going to open an account with Etrade, they have to sign the arbitration agreement. EVERYONE who opens a brokerage acct. has to sign one of these. However, the "head" lawyer said "I think I can beat that requirement in court." I laughed, and got up from the meeting. I told him and the others I get paid to make people money. I don't have time for this "debate."

We weren't even going to be the firm they dealt with, but one of the "top" producers at my firm asked me to explain this to them so he can sell their referrals stuff from time to time.

So now you know how I feel about MD's and lawyers. They're not God even when they act like it.

I'd rather manage retirement $ for you guys, as at least you'd understand what we're doing... That's saying something!:D
 
I forgot to mention, I don't care for arrogant people, and the MD's and lawyers are at the top of the "food chain" in this regard.

Being humble, and competent is the only way to be imo.
 
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