But what about copper ?

bone · Jan 14, 2015

Well, if we are truly and legitimately below production costs - then both commercial producers and users will be buying forwards in here...

Handle123 · Jan 16, 2015

Handle123 said:
Copper broke through 2.72 area, I remain short and Market should keep falling, selling rallies, next support is gap on Monthly of July 2009 at 2.62. This is one of the longest commodity trades of my life, almost four years of rollovers, but have added a couple times, all but one reached first target and just keeping protective stops at breakeven.

Been extremely busy week in many instruments for me and I can't get out of my position Copper as to my rules, but seeing Copper going beyond three deviations other day, did few Put credit spreads, but staying short as am expecting Copper to rebound from here, unclear if exhaustion bottom was sustained, but I am doubting it, guessing it will rally to 3.0 and bounce back down. Next support is 1.52 from 2008. Will sell rallies. I don't use fundamentals at all cause they never worked for me, numbers are fudged all the time.

syswizard · Jan 20, 2015

bone said:
Well, if we are truly and legitimately below production costs - then both commercial producers and users will be buying forwards in here...

Yep, this could happen....until the producers go out of business.
Can you fathom Rio Tinto filing bankruptcy ?

Handle123 · Feb 18, 2015

Handle123 said:
Been extremely busy week in many instruments for me and I can't get out of my position Copper as to my rules, but seeing Copper going beyond three deviations other day, did few Put credit spreads, but staying short as am expecting Copper to rebound from here, unclear if exhaustion bottom was sustained, but I am doubting it, guessing it will rally to 3.0 and bounce back down. Next support is 1.52 from 2008. Will sell rallies. I don't use fundamentals at all cause they never worked for me, numbers are fudged all the time.

I am needing Copper to go a bit higher to sell more of it and of course hedge when I do, still holding Put credit spreads till I add shorts. Still expect lower prices.

Handle123 · Feb 26, 2015

Handle123 said:
I am needing Copper to go a bit higher to sell more of it and of course hedge when I do, still holding Put credit spreads till I add shorts. Still expect lower prices.

Went short May Copper at 2.70, have hedge on and got out of Put option credit spreads.

Handle123 · Mar 21, 2015

Handle123 said:
Went short May Copper at 2.70, have hedge on and got out of Put option credit spreads.

Ended up breakeven on hedge and stopped out at very small profit of ten bucks on futures.
I did it all again of going short May at 2.76, no hedge

Handle123 · Jun 13, 2015

Handle123 said:
Ended up breakeven on hedge and stopped out at very small profit of ten bucks on futures.
I did it all again of going short May at 2.76, no hedge

I have taken more stabs of adding onto shorts, hedging most of the time, sell upper BB, taking off half at lower, I still don't Copper low enough to consider getting out of shorts, so just keep doing rollovers.

syswizard · Jun 17, 2015

Patience required here with all of the undercurrents.....the Shanghai index near all time highs, the Fed interest rate hike looming large.
A short on copper is a bet against China. I think it's a good bet soon.

Handle123 · Jul 8, 2015

Handle123 said:
I have taken more stabs of adding onto shorts, hedging most of the time, sell upper BB, taking off half at lower, I still don't Copper low enough to consider getting out of shorts, so just keep doing rollovers.

I am staying short, continuing rollovers, will start looking closer when it get to 2.092

syswizard · Jul 8, 2015

Handle123 said:
I am staying short, continuing rollovers, will start looking closer when it get to 2.092

Just be prepared for that day when there will be a massive short-covering rally.
We are so under the cost of production, soon there will be no production.