But what about copper ?

[syswizard]

Copper flat this morning natch.....after the huge sell-off.
Get this: LME Stock levels near all-time lows at 257,600 tons.
Since we are getting close to the cost of production, it will be interesting to see if the miners are going to produce at a rate which raises the stock levels.

 

[syswizard]

China’s role in copper’s collapse: Why investors should care

 

[murray t turtle]

not to nit pick but it's 3.73 which is not a small difference. just focus on the price not the economy b/c you don't trade the economy.

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Great technical points, Frank .And like the trader said that shorted Citigroup said ''fundamentals win in the end''

I study trends much more than ranges, good reasons for that

Most of copper on 10 year chart is is a range of $2.50-$3-$4.00. All prices are HI grade copper, in US Dollars, front month contract.NOT a prediction, nor do i usually mention a range[aka somewhat sideways trend] ; but on a 10 year monthly candlechart, its an very obvious range, not a prediction.

I like what Aussie trader D Guppy said years ago;
never confuse a HI probability with infallibility.Cool Thanks for fund amental + tek analysis

 

[trefoil]

syswizard: excellent thread. Definitely a classic one here on ET.

 

[NoVoodooHere]

Decisive break of the $3.00 level. May at $2.96.
Volatility should be picking up....we should wash-out around $2.85-$2.90.
Then look for a bounce which should be shorted again.
I think we could ultimately see $2.50-$2.60 for the May contract.

Any basis for the 2.50 to 2.60 level?

 

[syswizard]

syswizard: excellent thread. Definitely a classic one here on ET.

Thanks much for the plug. It was a long journey, but in the end, the fundies ruled this market.

 

[syswizard]

Any basis for the 2.50 to 2.60 level?

see prior post: "Most of copper on 10 year chart is is a range of $2.50-$4.00"

 

[syswizard]

I thought this was a really strange post on MarketWatch.com today.
jim-chanos-short/

The call of the day: Jim Chanos hasn’t exactly killed it with his short call on Caterpillar CAT. The stock is up more than 6% so far this year and has flirted with the triple-digit mark. That squeezed feeling won’t be going away anytime soon, according to the Stockpucker blog, which sees the shares moving up to $120. “Getting us there should be an upturn in the mining-equipment market, where Caterpillar is already seeing increased ‘quoting’ activity on original mining equipment,” the blogger wrote. “The outlook for construction also seems to be optimistic, and China is still a very appealing market for the equipment-making giant."

Huh ? How can mining be picking up ? Once the Ukrainian situation gets resolved, gold should plummet like crazy. So what are they mining ? Coal ? I don't think so....

 

[Handle123]

Handle - very interesting. Patience is required for this market that apparently looks to be manipulated...or at least the numbers are !!
LME Stock levels this morning: 269,000 tons - a new low.
How can that be ?
Spot LME copper indicated at $3.14/pound.
Last week was a huge test of the $3.00 level - which has been the absolute bottom over the past 8 years...it's never been broken.
Is this time different ?
May CME contract now at $3.0470.

I never look at "numbers", I just look at weekly/monthly charts. Numbers lie in all commodities or I just never trusted the numbers, but on the chart I trust what I see. Markets have reoccurring patterns most times near extremes, and I wait for long extension before looking for reversals, I add on after deep retracements and I always hedge. Got short indexes on the March 7th when it jumped up on weeklies, dailies and 60 minute charts, sold it and yesterday reached first target. Been selling all the indexes during new contract highs. Have breakeven stops in place and they will stay there till I get stopped out, rollover or reverse. For me over twenty years ago, only thing that tested out well to make the huge money is risking big open profits and staying in markets very long time.

 

[syswizard]

For me over twenty years ago, only thing that tested out well to make the huge money is risking big open profits and staying in markets very long time.

I am sure that is true. However, the high frequency traders have been quite successful with the opposite approach:
risking very little, and staying in the market for seconds. Of course, they place 1000+ trades per day. Big difference in styles.