But what about copper ?

Quote from Handle123:

I do trade spreads, however, I separate these trades from my longer term trading, I don't let one style of trading to alter another style of trading. So, yes, rolling over.

I normally trade three different contract months, but being some markets trades each month and don't always have most open interest or volume in front month, size is irregular like it is in Copper.

Copper in past twenty years generally have been a good market for me to trade, and most are unaware, normally what Copper is doing, stock market does. Right now there is a divergence between Copper and stock market. If the economy turns up, Copper will make new highs, but if not, copper will go down.

I have found in past three and half decades that really big money in Commodities has always been very long term trading, 99% of the time it is sitting on one's hands and just waiting, don't worry about the noise. I just started trading spreads in earnest this year, but my back testing in it shows best trading for me last no more than a months duration and do day trade several of them. And normally I use options for hedging, but four months ago have started using them for generating profits, has to be the toughest way to make money, LOL. I would have to think that failure rate in options is higher than day trading futures.
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are you spreading in Copper though? what are you spreading in?
 
Quote from Handle123:

Right now there is a divergence between Copper and stock market. If the economy turns up, Copper will make new highs, but if not, copper will go down.
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Dennis Gartmann on Fast Money last night: bullish on steel and copper saying economies of the world should continue to recover.
Wait a minute Dennis...isn't this so-called recovery going into it's 7th year now ? That's already a long time. At this point, I'd say anything in the way of a negative from a fiscal or monetary standpoint could send all economies back down.
Also, if copper was looking so strong, it wouldn't be in backwardation.
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

are you spreading in Copper though? what are you spreading in?
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Yes, spread in Copper, there is tendency for front month Dec/Mar in last week of Nov to go up. Spreads I get into in all markets are based on Seasonality but also signals I have developed, so I just don't put them on cause it is near end of November.
 
Morning Copper Market Report
Wed 11 Dec 2013 07:29:35 CT

Not surprisingly, the copper market continued to rise yesterday and in the process the March contract reached up to the highest level since December 3rd. Part of the gains in copper came from favorable currency market action and some might have been the result of technical stop loss buying in the wake of the upside breakout on the charts. It is also highly likely that talk of an impending US budget deal prompted some fund and fresh speculative buying of copper and other industrial commodities, and that lifted copper to new highs for the move.

Clearly removing the US debt and deficit drag from hanging over the world economy, could ultimately be seen as more important than continuing QE3. While copper is showing more gains this morning, the gains are a little anemic when one considers the positive Chinese copper demand news flow overnight. However, news that Chinese copper production in November jumped up sharply and reached record levels probably tempered part of the upward track offered by the higher Shanghai copper close.

As in other markets, copper needs positive Washington news, increased hopes for growth in 2014 and ongoing declines in the Dollar. On the other hand, copper was net spec short in the last positioning reports and therefore copper might not need as much positive fundamental news as other markets to return to the October consolidation highs.
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Commentary: As the report indicates, upward price action is pretty pathetic considering the backdrop. I think there is some short covering happening here. We are up a penny and a half this morning on the CME with the front month (March '14) being the strongest, but not by much.
 
Quote from Handle123:

If the economy turns up, Copper will make new highs, but if not, copper will go down.
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One would think that equity markets might also be correlation factor for copper. THINK AGAIN. Over the past few days equities are down, but copper is holding it's own. March contract hit $3.31 this morning.
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gl...eep-in-wolfs-clothing-2013-12-12?pagenumber=1
A stupendous article....take "that" Dennis Gartman.
Anyone see a bright future economically here ?

First, it is unlikely that economic growth will reach levels needed to power the global economy back to health, at least in the near future.

Second, inflation levels will remain low with the risk of disinflation or deflation being ever-present.

Third, sovereign debt problems in developed countries as well as a number of emerging markets will remain an important concern.

Fourth, problems in emerging markets will continue. Overall growth will moderate and several countries may experience debt crises of different magnitude. This will drag down global growth and affect the chance of recovery in developed countries.

Fifth, the impotence of policy makers and the inadequacies of available policy options will become increasingly evident. Policy makers quietly talk about major “macroeconomic failures.” The recent emphasis on forward guidance (which can be translated as merely a new term for the age-old practice of jawboning’ is reminiscent of Robin Williams’ observation about the weapons available to an unarmed English policeman: “Stop, or I will shout louder!”

Sixth, the economic problems will increasingly lead to social and political problems, both domestic and internationally.

High levels of unemployment or under-employment, rising income inequality and the inability of governments to meet expectations of the level of services provided will fuel increased social discontent. It will also fuel political extremism, already evident in the rise of far right and left wing parties.

Disparities in economic activity levels between countries will feed distrust and beggar-thy-neighbor policies. Limited growth will fuel economic isolationism and nationalism. Recent territorial disputes attest to both the battle for resource security and also the political advantage of deflecting attention from domestic problems and a naked appeal to nationalism.
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Quote from cdcaveman:

Perma bear....
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I'm always early to the party it seems.:D
I was shorting IWM back in 2007 before the big swoon.
Seems were are in a similar period now.

Copper is now in a fairly profound CONTANGO (sorry, not backwardation....that's normal). December delivery is up 2.5 cents while March is only up a penny. This must be due to decreased stocks on the LME now reported at 393k metric tons.
Indeed, as I had reported on Nov 25th: "LME Copper Stocks were at 437,500 tons".
 
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