But what about copper ?
- Thread starter syswizard
- Start date
Morning Copper Market Report
Wed 04 Dec 2013 08:03:49 CT
March copper spent most of Tuesday's trading session trading in negative territory, but prices have managed a slight recovery during the overnight session. However, some traders feel that copper found only minimal support from periodic weakness in the Dollar yesterday, while other traders felt that copper might have been pressured by slumping equities and talk of the potential for less expensive Russian copper exports to flow in 2014 because of the removal of a duty.
It is also appears for many in the market that copper and other metals markets remain fearful of an earlier than expected tapering of US Fed policy. Other traders feel that when a physical commodity market is undermined by positive US economic data, which would suggest the potential negative impact from Fed policy may be hanging over the marketplace.
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Commentary: I think this is a case of a market remaining irrational longer than a trader can stay liquid.
Hard to believe March contract is up 6 cents so far this morning.
Wed 04 Dec 2013 08:03:49 CT
March copper spent most of Tuesday's trading session trading in negative territory, but prices have managed a slight recovery during the overnight session. However, some traders feel that copper found only minimal support from periodic weakness in the Dollar yesterday, while other traders felt that copper might have been pressured by slumping equities and talk of the potential for less expensive Russian copper exports to flow in 2014 because of the removal of a duty.
It is also appears for many in the market that copper and other metals markets remain fearful of an earlier than expected tapering of US Fed policy. Other traders feel that when a physical commodity market is undermined by positive US economic data, which would suggest the potential negative impact from Fed policy may be hanging over the marketplace.
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Commentary: I think this is a case of a market remaining irrational longer than a trader can stay liquid.
Hard to believe March contract is up 6 cents so far this morning.
Morning Copper Market Report
Fri 06 Dec 2013 07:41:49 CT
March copper has posted moderate gains this morning and has reached the highest price levels since early last week. The copper market rallied early on Thursday before falling back into and through the release of US economic data. While the Initial Jobless Claims figures hinted at growth and the prospect of Fed tapering, a somewhat disappointing slide in US Factory Orders later on Thursday may have given the copper market fresh concerns about the recent 10 cent rise off its lows. A weaker Dollar can probably be expected to provide support today, but it could be difficult for copper to come through this morning's US data flows without seeing significant price volatility.
In a positive note, Shanghai copper stocks for the week declined by 7,137 tons to stand at just 141,533 tons and that put those stocks down to the lowest levels since June 29th of 2012. The copper market also saw another decline in LME daily copper stocks of 3,300 tons, and Shanghai copper futures finished higher overnight.
With a significant amount of Chinese economic data due by Sunday night US time and copper prices sitting roughly 11 cents above their November lows, some traders have suggested that copper needs to see positive demand news going forward.
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Commentary: Gentlemen, place your bets. The last sentence above says it all. Where's the demand going to come from if China cannot step up to the plate ?
Fri 06 Dec 2013 07:41:49 CT
March copper has posted moderate gains this morning and has reached the highest price levels since early last week. The copper market rallied early on Thursday before falling back into and through the release of US economic data. While the Initial Jobless Claims figures hinted at growth and the prospect of Fed tapering, a somewhat disappointing slide in US Factory Orders later on Thursday may have given the copper market fresh concerns about the recent 10 cent rise off its lows. A weaker Dollar can probably be expected to provide support today, but it could be difficult for copper to come through this morning's US data flows without seeing significant price volatility.
In a positive note, Shanghai copper stocks for the week declined by 7,137 tons to stand at just 141,533 tons and that put those stocks down to the lowest levels since June 29th of 2012. The copper market also saw another decline in LME daily copper stocks of 3,300 tons, and Shanghai copper futures finished higher overnight.
With a significant amount of Chinese economic data due by Sunday night US time and copper prices sitting roughly 11 cents above their November lows, some traders have suggested that copper needs to see positive demand news going forward.
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Commentary: Gentlemen, place your bets. The last sentence above says it all. Where's the demand going to come from if China cannot step up to the plate ?
are you literally just rolling the front contract as it expires... or are you spreading to get the exposure you want.. theres another thread right now on NG where a guy asked a similar question to one i asked years ago.. about how to get NG long exposure over time..
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3911540#post3911540
Morning Copper Market Report
Mon 09 Dec 2013 07:18:07 CT
Copper prices have shaken off early pressure and are posting moderate early gains this morning, although they remain below last Friday's monthly high. Copper generally traded higher during Friday's session and in the process the March contract reached up to the highest price level since November 25th, which some traders suggest meant that at least one metals market was able to benefit from decent US economic readings.
Copper should have found support from upbeat US data and that might point towards an improvement of physical demand just ahead, and copper should also have benefited from favorable Chinese economic data that was released over the weekend. In the near term, other traders feel that the limited rally off positive Chinese economic data suggests that the brunt of the gains off the December lows may have been technical short covering and not fresh long term buying.
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Commentary: Interesting discussions last night on Bloomberg/Asia about the Chinese and how they are prone to "rigging" their economic statistics. Exports were up a whopping 12%, but imports only 5% ? I think the only reason for copper holding up here is that the Chinese have a lot to lose if it goes down in price. This is the proverbial "boy and the dike story" ala Hans Brinker. How long can they hold it up ? Stay tuned !
Mon 09 Dec 2013 07:18:07 CT
Copper prices have shaken off early pressure and are posting moderate early gains this morning, although they remain below last Friday's monthly high. Copper generally traded higher during Friday's session and in the process the March contract reached up to the highest price level since November 25th, which some traders suggest meant that at least one metals market was able to benefit from decent US economic readings.
Copper should have found support from upbeat US data and that might point towards an improvement of physical demand just ahead, and copper should also have benefited from favorable Chinese economic data that was released over the weekend. In the near term, other traders feel that the limited rally off positive Chinese economic data suggests that the brunt of the gains off the December lows may have been technical short covering and not fresh long term buying.
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Commentary: Interesting discussions last night on Bloomberg/Asia about the Chinese and how they are prone to "rigging" their economic statistics. Exports were up a whopping 12%, but imports only 5% ? I think the only reason for copper holding up here is that the Chinese have a lot to lose if it goes down in price. This is the proverbial "boy and the dike story" ala Hans Brinker. How long can they hold it up ? Stay tuned !
doesn't make sense except if you think they are only hoarding copper.
If so, how do you explain building of empty flats that are locked away? This is now happening in AU also. Build, sell, lock. No supply increase. can go to infinity or unless run out of willing 'investors' that borrow and consider such an investment cant lose. but that is rather unlikely at this point
I do trade spreads, however, I separate these trades from my longer term trading, I don't let one style of trading to alter another style of trading. So, yes, rolling over.
I normally trade three different contract months, but being some markets trades each month and don't always have most open interest or volume in front month, size is irregular like it is in Copper.
Copper in past twenty years generally have been a good market for me to trade, and most are unaware, normally what Copper is doing, stock market does. Right now there is a divergence between Copper and stock market. If the economy turns up, Copper will make new highs, but if not, copper will go down.
I have found in past three and half decades that really big money in Commodities has always been very long term trading, 99% of the time it is sitting on one's hands and just waiting, don't worry about the noise. I just started trading spreads in earnest this year, but my back testing in it shows best trading for me last no more than a months duration and do day trade several of them. And normally I use options for hedging, but four months ago have started using them for generating profits, has to be the toughest way to make money, LOL. I would have to think that failure rate in options is higher than day trading futures.