But what about copper ?
- Thread starter syswizard
- Start date
Morning Copper Market Report
Mon 11 Nov 2013 07:37:54 CT
The copper market was thought to have seen strong liquidation pressure during last week's trading, as concern for slack Chinese demand and sharp gains in the US Dollar were seen to be weighing on prices. However, a recovery in copper prices at the end of the week suggests that some traders might have been looking forward to this week's Chinese "Third Plenum" meeting, as press releases from that gathering are expected to contain supportive copper demand items.
Chinese copper prices were slightly higher overnight off gains in global equities, and perhaps because of a slight decline in the Dollar. It is also possible that favorable Chinese and US economic data may have encouraged some bargain hunting buying in copper after last week's noted slide. In addition, some traders feel that a continued slide in LME exchange copper stocks has been a positive gauge of global demand.
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Commentary: Once again, who is buying this highly overpriced metal and for what purpose ?
Mon 11 Nov 2013 07:37:54 CT
The copper market was thought to have seen strong liquidation pressure during last week's trading, as concern for slack Chinese demand and sharp gains in the US Dollar were seen to be weighing on prices. However, a recovery in copper prices at the end of the week suggests that some traders might have been looking forward to this week's Chinese "Third Plenum" meeting, as press releases from that gathering are expected to contain supportive copper demand items.
Chinese copper prices were slightly higher overnight off gains in global equities, and perhaps because of a slight decline in the Dollar. It is also possible that favorable Chinese and US economic data may have encouraged some bargain hunting buying in copper after last week's noted slide. In addition, some traders feel that a continued slide in LME exchange copper stocks has been a positive gauge of global demand.
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Commentary: Once again, who is buying this highly overpriced metal and for what purpose ?
Morning Copper Market Report
Wed 13 Nov 2013 07:24:42 CT
There has been little relief for December copper prices as the market remains under severe pressure coming into this morning's trading. While copper rallied into the US economic report window, the market then reversed course and traded sharply lower throughout the rest of Tuesday's session. From the near-term high just ahead of Tuesday's US economic data to the overnight low, December copper saw a slide of roughly 6 cents.
Shanghai copper prices were also down sharply last night, due in part to heavy losses in Chinese equities but will likely be an additional source of pressure for copper this morning. Some traders have thought that political and economic transition in China in the wake of their Third Plenum might mean a slower Chinese economy and in turn could lead to lower copper demand. Sluggish US equities and talk of tapering from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart might be another issue weighing on copper prices. To be fair, Fed President Lockhart also indicated that US inflation rates needed to be higher in order to begin tapering.
The CEO of a major copper producer said in an interview that prices would not suffer significantly from a modest global surplus next year, but other traders feel the market has taken little comfort in those remarks this morning. LME copper exchange stocks continue to decline and have only seen 2 builds in the past 50 sessions, which provides some limited evidence for modest global demand growth. LME Copper Stocks were 457,475 tons, down 1,950 tons and are at the lowest levels since February 28th.
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Commentary: As expected and as in all contentious markets, this one requires a lot of patience. This looks like the start of a break down to the 3-even level. The only thing worrisome from the short side is those persistently low LME stock levels. If stocks start rising, "look out below".
Wed 13 Nov 2013 07:24:42 CT
There has been little relief for December copper prices as the market remains under severe pressure coming into this morning's trading. While copper rallied into the US economic report window, the market then reversed course and traded sharply lower throughout the rest of Tuesday's session. From the near-term high just ahead of Tuesday's US economic data to the overnight low, December copper saw a slide of roughly 6 cents.
Shanghai copper prices were also down sharply last night, due in part to heavy losses in Chinese equities but will likely be an additional source of pressure for copper this morning. Some traders have thought that political and economic transition in China in the wake of their Third Plenum might mean a slower Chinese economy and in turn could lead to lower copper demand. Sluggish US equities and talk of tapering from Atlanta Fed President Lockhart might be another issue weighing on copper prices. To be fair, Fed President Lockhart also indicated that US inflation rates needed to be higher in order to begin tapering.
The CEO of a major copper producer said in an interview that prices would not suffer significantly from a modest global surplus next year, but other traders feel the market has taken little comfort in those remarks this morning. LME copper exchange stocks continue to decline and have only seen 2 builds in the past 50 sessions, which provides some limited evidence for modest global demand growth. LME Copper Stocks were 457,475 tons, down 1,950 tons and are at the lowest levels since February 28th.
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Commentary: As expected and as in all contentious markets, this one requires a lot of patience. This looks like the start of a break down to the 3-even level. The only thing worrisome from the short side is those persistently low LME stock levels. If stocks start rising, "look out below".
Morning Copper Market Report
Fri 15 Nov 2013 07:13:05 CT
After showing early moderate strength, the copper market came back under pressure again on Thursday and that negative price action has seen follow-through weakness early in today's session. Copper was unable to generate support in the face of sharp gains in precious metals, fresh talk of a delay in Fed tapering, and also falling in the face of ongoing Dollar weakness and new highs in US equity markets.
After an initial negative reception to the China's Third Plenum meeting, some traders feel that December copper could find minor support from improving Chinese sentiment that seems to have shifted back into a more optimistic tone. Shanghai copper stocks for the week posted a decline of 7,311 tons, and fell to their lowest level since mid-October. LME Copper Stocks were 451,650 tons, down 4,075 tons and at their lowest levels since February 28th.
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Commentary: Well gang, it's all about the stock levels now. Once again the question is who is taking down the stocks ?
The red metal is definitely going under 3 even if stock levels begin to rise. That should coincide with the end of the fed tapering.
Don't ask me when.
Fri 15 Nov 2013 07:13:05 CT
After showing early moderate strength, the copper market came back under pressure again on Thursday and that negative price action has seen follow-through weakness early in today's session. Copper was unable to generate support in the face of sharp gains in precious metals, fresh talk of a delay in Fed tapering, and also falling in the face of ongoing Dollar weakness and new highs in US equity markets.
After an initial negative reception to the China's Third Plenum meeting, some traders feel that December copper could find minor support from improving Chinese sentiment that seems to have shifted back into a more optimistic tone. Shanghai copper stocks for the week posted a decline of 7,311 tons, and fell to their lowest level since mid-October. LME Copper Stocks were 451,650 tons, down 4,075 tons and at their lowest levels since February 28th.
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Commentary: Well gang, it's all about the stock levels now. Once again the question is who is taking down the stocks ?
The red metal is definitely going under 3 even if stock levels begin to rise. That should coincide with the end of the fed tapering.
Don't ask me when.
Great article on why Copper should be leading the SPX down.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-dr-copper-a-liar-2013-11-15?link=MW_home_latest_news
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-dr-copper-a-liar-2013-11-15?link=MW_home_latest_news
Morning Copper Market Report
Mon 18 Nov 2013 07:55:42 CT
While copper prices showed periods of strength late last week, they have been unable to recover any sizable portion of last Tuesday and Wednesday's 10-cent downdraft. After choppy early trading, December copper built on modest support to post a moderate gain by the close of Friday's trading session. For the week, December finished with a massive 8.30 loss that was its worst weekly performance since late August.
A sizable drop in Shanghai copper stocks down to their lowest levels since mid-October, as well as more positive vibes coming from China, was seen as key factors that help put some near-term brakes on last week's downdraft. However, Shanghai copper prices started out this week by posting a fifth straight negative daily result. LME copper stocks continued to decline, which provided further evidence of growth from the demand side of the equation. LME Copper Stocks were 448,950 tons, down 2,700 tons and are at the lowest levels since late February.
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Commentary: No move in the CME futures this morning. Once again, a conundrum exists between stock levels and current demand. More important however: future demand.
I think any rallies here should be shorted. The real drama however will occur at 3.00.
Mon 18 Nov 2013 07:55:42 CT
While copper prices showed periods of strength late last week, they have been unable to recover any sizable portion of last Tuesday and Wednesday's 10-cent downdraft. After choppy early trading, December copper built on modest support to post a moderate gain by the close of Friday's trading session. For the week, December finished with a massive 8.30 loss that was its worst weekly performance since late August.
A sizable drop in Shanghai copper stocks down to their lowest levels since mid-October, as well as more positive vibes coming from China, was seen as key factors that help put some near-term brakes on last week's downdraft. However, Shanghai copper prices started out this week by posting a fifth straight negative daily result. LME copper stocks continued to decline, which provided further evidence of growth from the demand side of the equation. LME Copper Stocks were 448,950 tons, down 2,700 tons and are at the lowest levels since late February.
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Commentary: No move in the CME futures this morning. Once again, a conundrum exists between stock levels and current demand. More important however: future demand.
I think any rallies here should be shorted. The real drama however will occur at 3.00.
Morning Copper Market Report
Wed 20 Nov 2013 07:27:22 CT
A positive reversal from a 3 1/2 month low may have set the stage for upside price action, but copper was once again unable to make a strong move above the 318.00 level early in Wednesday's trading. Copper prices were able to make a 4 cent rally from their new low for the move on Tuesday, due to what many traders felt was short-covering of a sizable net spec short position after last week's downdraft. Shanghai copper prices finished higher for the first time in 7 sessions, which was likely in reaction to the sharp turnaround in the US market.
The International Copper Study Group forecast global copper demand to grow 4.5% in 2014, with Chinese refined copper consumption up 6% next year, which is widely expected to be a positive factor for the market this morning. Recent strength in US and Chinese equities along with a weaker Dollar have also been supportive factors for the copper market, although there are still concerns that China's Third Plenum results were light on infrastructure projects that would boost that nation's longer-term copper demand.
LME exchange copper stocks continued their recent pattern of declines with a 13th straight draw. They have only seen 2 builds in the past 55 sessions and are at their lowest levels since late February. Stocks were 445,700 tons, down 1,950 tons. Comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke have provided some underlying support for copper, but some traders feel that the market may reserve judgment until after the release of FOMC meeting minutes late today before concerns over a potential December Fed tapering can be fully extinguished.
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Commentary: Again, this market is in quite a quandary. The Third Plenum results would seem to be bearish for the red metal, yet stocks continue to deplete. Who is buying ?
My sense is that we may have a rally back to 3.20-3.25 if the Fed wording remains constructive for equities. Now that would be a terrific level to place some short bets....unless you believe QE is going on into perpetuity.
Wed 20 Nov 2013 07:27:22 CT
A positive reversal from a 3 1/2 month low may have set the stage for upside price action, but copper was once again unable to make a strong move above the 318.00 level early in Wednesday's trading. Copper prices were able to make a 4 cent rally from their new low for the move on Tuesday, due to what many traders felt was short-covering of a sizable net spec short position after last week's downdraft. Shanghai copper prices finished higher for the first time in 7 sessions, which was likely in reaction to the sharp turnaround in the US market.
The International Copper Study Group forecast global copper demand to grow 4.5% in 2014, with Chinese refined copper consumption up 6% next year, which is widely expected to be a positive factor for the market this morning. Recent strength in US and Chinese equities along with a weaker Dollar have also been supportive factors for the copper market, although there are still concerns that China's Third Plenum results were light on infrastructure projects that would boost that nation's longer-term copper demand.
LME exchange copper stocks continued their recent pattern of declines with a 13th straight draw. They have only seen 2 builds in the past 55 sessions and are at their lowest levels since late February. Stocks were 445,700 tons, down 1,950 tons. Comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke have provided some underlying support for copper, but some traders feel that the market may reserve judgment until after the release of FOMC meeting minutes late today before concerns over a potential December Fed tapering can be fully extinguished.
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Commentary: Again, this market is in quite a quandary. The Third Plenum results would seem to be bearish for the red metal, yet stocks continue to deplete. Who is buying ?
My sense is that we may have a rally back to 3.20-3.25 if the Fed wording remains constructive for equities. Now that would be a terrific level to place some short bets....unless you believe QE is going on into perpetuity.
Morning Copper Market Report
Mon 25 Nov 2013 07:16:46 CT
A huge updraft at the start of this week's trading temporarily took copper back above last Friday's trading range, as prices reached their highest levels since November 11th. The Iranian nuclear compromise over the weekend may have fostered a more favorable view toward some industrial demand-driven commodities today, and combined with ongoing gains in global equities has some traders feeling that copper may be in a positive fundamental and technical position early this week.
Another supportive issue for the copper market was news of a sharp decline in Shanghai copper stocks at the end of last week that in turn produced the largest single-week stock decline since 1999. Positive vibes out of China were strengthened by last week's trade data, while mixed results with recent US data helped to calm market concerns over a potential Fed tapering move next month. LME Copper Stocks were 437,500 tons, down 1,600 tons and are at the lowest levels since February 25th.
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Commentary: Once again, stock drawn-downs appear to be happening. This has provided the short set-up I had mentioned last week. These dramatic drawdowns are not going to last.
$3.25-$3.40 should be a good selling area. Stops at $3.50 would seem appropriate.
Mon 25 Nov 2013 07:16:46 CT
A huge updraft at the start of this week's trading temporarily took copper back above last Friday's trading range, as prices reached their highest levels since November 11th. The Iranian nuclear compromise over the weekend may have fostered a more favorable view toward some industrial demand-driven commodities today, and combined with ongoing gains in global equities has some traders feeling that copper may be in a positive fundamental and technical position early this week.
Another supportive issue for the copper market was news of a sharp decline in Shanghai copper stocks at the end of last week that in turn produced the largest single-week stock decline since 1999. Positive vibes out of China were strengthened by last week's trade data, while mixed results with recent US data helped to calm market concerns over a potential Fed tapering move next month. LME Copper Stocks were 437,500 tons, down 1,600 tons and are at the lowest levels since February 25th.
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Commentary: Once again, stock drawn-downs appear to be happening. This has provided the short set-up I had mentioned last week. These dramatic drawdowns are not going to last.
$3.25-$3.40 should be a good selling area. Stops at $3.50 would seem appropriate.
Article: Silver looking to crash....
http://jerrykhachoyan.com/silver-looking-crash/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Will copper follow ? I don't see why not......
http://jerrykhachoyan.com/silver-looking-crash/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Will copper follow ? I don't see why not......
Morning Copper Market Report
Mon 02 Dec 2013 07:36:45 CT
March copper finished last week's holiday-shortened trading with positive price action on the charts. However, mostly favorable manufacturing data from China and the Euro zone overnight wasn't able to provide support to the market, as copper has started the new trading week off on a weaker footing. Copper has continued to see consistent declines in daily LME copper stocks and the market also saw a decline in Shanghai weekly copper stocks on Friday.
However, the global demand outlook for copper remains somewhat suspect and the lack of a positive reaction to minimally positive Chinese manufacturing news overnight suggests for many traders that the recent rally in copper might have been mostly short-covering in nature. Adverse currency market action, weaker equities and fears of US tapering are expected to be sources of pressure for copper prices this morning.
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Commentary: I mentioned both of these dualing factors last week. Last night the Chinese hi-tech index had fallen 6% right at the open. Supposedly this was due to some sort of change in govt's stance regarding new start-ups in China. However, it could be a sign of "something else".
The front month has moved to March '14 on the CME and the entire series is now in backwardation with distance month prices lower than the current month price.
Mon 02 Dec 2013 07:36:45 CT
March copper finished last week's holiday-shortened trading with positive price action on the charts. However, mostly favorable manufacturing data from China and the Euro zone overnight wasn't able to provide support to the market, as copper has started the new trading week off on a weaker footing. Copper has continued to see consistent declines in daily LME copper stocks and the market also saw a decline in Shanghai weekly copper stocks on Friday.
However, the global demand outlook for copper remains somewhat suspect and the lack of a positive reaction to minimally positive Chinese manufacturing news overnight suggests for many traders that the recent rally in copper might have been mostly short-covering in nature. Adverse currency market action, weaker equities and fears of US tapering are expected to be sources of pressure for copper prices this morning.
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Commentary: I mentioned both of these dualing factors last week. Last night the Chinese hi-tech index had fallen 6% right at the open. Supposedly this was due to some sort of change in govt's stance regarding new start-ups in China. However, it could be a sign of "something else".
The front month has moved to March '14 on the CME and the entire series is now in backwardation with distance month prices lower than the current month price.