But what about copper ?
- Thread starter syswizard
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Copper Leans Lower as Trade Noses Around for FOMC News
By Thomson Reuters - Mon 19 Aug 2013 07:47:16 CT
London copper eased as markets waited for more clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve may trim its commodity-friendly stimulus, after climbing for three of the past four weeks on evidence of resilient growth in China and a weaker dollar.
Commentary: This a tough one. Europe is supposedly finally starting to recover. Unless QE reduction initiates a bout of deflation, prices are just going to meander and will be hypersensitive to all of the news. Construction spending will be a key factor in the fair price of the red metal.
By Thomson Reuters - Mon 19 Aug 2013 07:47:16 CT
London copper eased as markets waited for more clues on when the U.S. Federal Reserve may trim its commodity-friendly stimulus, after climbing for three of the past four weeks on evidence of resilient growth in China and a weaker dollar.
Commentary: This a tough one. Europe is supposedly finally starting to recover. Unless QE reduction initiates a bout of deflation, prices are just going to meander and will be hypersensitive to all of the news. Construction spending will be a key factor in the fair price of the red metal.
Do you have a target price, wizard?
Wish I did Surf. The initial target 3 months ago was $3.0 and we reached that. Now we are looking like range-bound $3.00 to $3.50. It's just going to moving around on the news.
Better outlook for Europe has sparked the latest strength.
I think we can break below $3.0 if the QE reduction plans throws us back into recession. Also, in that case, ALL commodities should tank, especially oil. There's not a day that goes by where I'm not like "WTF, why is oil over $100, WTF !".
Actually I think short oil is the better play. Did you see the $2 move today ? Many times volatility precedes a major reversal.
Of course, as I had mentioned before, this bugger is going to move based on the news and here it is:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capito...cturing-on-the-upswing-according-to-pmi-data/
Still, looking at this time series, the trend is flat-at-best and this could likely just be an inventory depletion bounce.
Copper was up 5 cents on the news.....now only 2 cents.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capito...cturing-on-the-upswing-according-to-pmi-data/
Still, looking at this time series, the trend is flat-at-best and this could likely just be an inventory depletion bounce.
Copper was up 5 cents on the news.....now only 2 cents.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/commodity-prices-are-about-to-explode-2013-08-21
Once again, a complete "miss" on the fundamentals. Inflation cannot be sustained in a weak wage environment.
Oh, prices could rise for a short period of time, but eventually they will implode.
Once again, a complete "miss" on the fundamentals. Inflation cannot be sustained in a weak wage environment.
Oh, prices could rise for a short period of time, but eventually they will implode.
Exactly...and that's why the short on copper is so "iffy" right now.
Keep in mind, EWT indicates that #5 usually ends the rally.
So here's the scenario that would cause the above:
The central banks do not stop the QE'ing and inflation takes off. Then they try to put on the brakes and every economy collapses. That would take us to around 2015....or so.