But what about copper ?

[syswizard]

Quote from elisab:

...in fact I was referring to inventories. In the initial phase of destocking, prices naturally fall as the buyer "buys" less as the demand is too low to justify an increase in inventories.

Got it. That's on the consumption side. However, lower LME stocks should correlate with higher CU prices.
Reasoning: LME is on the supply side.


Copper certainly has been tricky to trade recently....the big move down has been followed by choppy sideways action. However, I think we need to break $3.00 here before there is an impact on the copper mines....i.e. they stop production.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from syswizard:

However, I think we need to break $3.00 here before there is an impact on the copper mines....i.e. they stop production.

Big breakdown in Copper this morning....only 7 cents from the precipice.

 

[syswizard]

Rio Tinto to sell 80% stake in copper mine
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ri...ake-in-copper-mine-2013-07-28?dist=beforebell

Rio Tinto selling two copper mining interests.
No need to ask why.

 

[elisab]

The performance of this morning of the Aussie (and its bad data on the housing market) make the break of the long-term support of the copper very likely.

 

[syswizard]

Only 4 more cents to go !!! ($3.00)

 

[Handle123]

Quote from Handle123:

Economy much weaker than reports and still heavily short copper.
Just been selling calls for adding a little to coffers. Any rally is too be sold for long term trades. And still long Nat Gas.

Nothing has changed except Nat Gas is lower and I am long, I am still short Copper., eventually it will go down.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from Handle123:

Nothing has changed except Nat Gas is lower and I am long, I am still short Copper., eventually it will go down.

Dunno...I am worried it's taken so long to break the $3 mark.
Word has it that China will eventually get back to high growth once the lending standards are relaxed. Question is WHEN ?

 

[syswizard]

Copper Boosted to Week Highs on Steady Stimulus, China Data
By Thomson Reuters - Thu 01 Aug 2013 07:33:38 CT
London copper reached its highest level in almost a week after the Federal Reserve gave no indication of an imminent reduction in monetary stimulus and as Chinese manufacturing data beat expectations.
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Commentary:I can assure you that a lot of this mini-rally is short covering and technical in nature. Copper's hold of the $3 level was quite a positive outcome for the bulls. Copper won't rebound much above $3.25-$3.40....I think that's a guarantee. At the same time, there's not much downside either unless we have a huge hit in the US and Chinese economies.

 

[toolazy]

that is why support. maybe bears too ambitious

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2013-08/02/content_16863960.htm

china satates openly that property will be one of key industries to get growth. Only way to do that is to build and therefore uses copper, etc

 

[syswizard]

Quote from toolazy:

that is why support. maybe bears too ambitious

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/2013-08/02/content_16863960.htm

china states openly that property will be one of key industries to get growth. Only way to do that is to build and therefore uses copper, etc

Yes I agree. This trade is like the Euro trade everyone was talking about last year....where the Euro currency was supposed to crash. Well, one year later and it NEVER HAPPENED.
Why ? Everyone was expecting it to go down.
This is looking very much the same. It's going to take quite an economic downturn to pull this guy under $3 IMHO.