... but is it doable in reality ?

Big single stock idea - British Petroleum ("BP." on tradingview) as a strong buy. Currently trading @ 321.50 pence, I see a yearly share increase of around 10% until 2026 + the dividend (currently yielding around 4.6 %).

The timeframe on the shown chart is monthly, I interpret this as a clear upward trend that'll continue.

I think the share price will rise to around 500 pence within the next 5 years.

OTw5ZoBC.png
 
The short setup on Imperial Brands (ISIN : GB0004544929) is no longer valid, the risk / reward ratio has become bad. "IMB" on tradingview, it currently trades @ 1,600 pence and I don't think the share price will drop below 1,200 again.
 
Last but not least, I've changed stripes in the currency pair USD vs CAD, I had it on neutral after the long setup would have resulted in the stop loss being triggered if one had invested in my failed long setup.

The chart shows USDCAD on a monthly basis, it currently trades @ 1.2319 . I do believe it has completed a countertrendrally and will now drop to around 1.10 or even lower.

If this short setup is traded, I'd set the stop loss around 300 pips above entry, right now this would mean a 1.2620 SL.

G2ay2yfs
 
On page 12, I posted a bullish setup in Natural Gas (NATURALGAS on tradingview), it traded @ 1.964 back then on August 3rd, 2020, price now is 3.37 US$ .

This shows the importance of holding on to winners when a strong trend develops in either direction. The way I interpret the chart on a monthly basis, the pricetarget for this longposition if a trader had taken it is now around 5.50 US$ or even higher.

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Ray Dalio in a short clip where he explains possible conditions for a "bubble" in the stock market.


01:31 is his warning traffic light !
 
Daniel Loeb, founder of Third Point Asset Management, is a selfmade billionaire thanks to his flagship fund delivering alpha. I just watched a presentation of him on YouTube, he calls this book by Joel Greenblatt "the best book on the stock market ever written" ! It was first published in 1999, here's the Amazon URL,
 
I'll take a hiatus from posting in this thread, as of now I have not found new setups I consider potentially profitable.

Natural Gas now trades @ 3.758 (source : tradingview), it shows the nature of trendfollowing. Many whipsaws can and will occur, and in a few times a big trend will develop that probably any trendfollowing technique (breakout of tight range, resistance and so forth) will catch . A single big winner can compensate for many small losers.

My new pricetarget for Natural Gas is 6.50 US$ within the next two years.
 
.... break from my hiatus as I've posted two setups in the currency pair USD vs CAD that would have resulted in a loss !

However, that is the nature of trendfollowing, it has a low hit quote of only around 40 - 45%, that is more than half of posted setups will be losers anyhow :( .

It's now back to the pair USD vs CAD (USDCAD), the chart on a weekly basis has surprising similarity to the Natural Gas chart last year - break of long term resistance ! As a result, I'm bullish again on this pair, it now trades @ 1.2532.

My Stop loss would be around 1.2150, Profittarget is 1.3700 .

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I just for the first time examined this weird Gamestop ("GME" on tradingview) share rise. The company is not profitable, was hovering around far below its all-time high in 2003 until suddenly it saw its share price increase by more than 100 (around 10,000% !) in a very short timeframe.

This was partly due to investors coordinating their purchases on reddit so they would put pressure on short sellers, who would then have to cover their shorts, thus putting more upward thrust into the share price, the all-time high was around 482 US$, the shares trade now at around 191 US$.

This company, however, has not experienced a fundamental shift in its business, it's still bleeding cash and I don't see why a retail trader should become superprofitable ? The New York Times has written a great article, publishing date is February 1st, 2021 -> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/business/gamestop-how-much-worth.html

I personally believe this story is over & out, and that the share price may fall back to around 15 bucks until summer of 2022 !

uZP7w96G.png
 
The year ? 2003 . The exact date ? January 7th. "Now is the time to buy Apple", wrote a CNN reporter by the name Paul La Monica. The reasoning was basically Apple having almost no debt, being valued at only slightly above its net assets (the market cap back then was only around 5.3 billion US$) and having a positive cash flow.

This may be the most perfect timing in financial journalism
1f642.png
. Now in 2021 Apple's share price is back in all-time high territory . The big growth story is of course over, unfortunately, but we could see a market capitalization of around 3 trillion US$, meaning its share price will have to rise to around 180 US$ . I see this until the end of 2023.

Here's the article from 2003 -> https://tinyurl.com/6jm5sm5h
 
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