... but is it doable in reality ?

janbillian said:
Gold I'm now a bear, think it'll drop to around 1,500 US$ within the next two years.
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markets never do badly when liquidity is plenty and governments have learnt to turn on the liquidity tap whenever things get bad.....and right now they are bad...with covid sword hanging over the world.

this liquidity is supposed to help everyone tide over their fears......but history shows that the 'common public' rarely even smell it....

it usually gets diverted to markets and inflates asset prices.

while some volatility is to be expected i expect markets to be underpinned by this phenomenon.

there is a reason that infantry hide behind a tank and you could do worse than hide behind the government.
 
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Thank you for your input. The thing I now consider "top territory" is the Bitcoin. Reason is the devastating judgement that Warren Buffett has made and what I remember from this interview with investment all star Paul Tudor Jones II ("When you look at the volatility we've had in the past month in the NASDAQ for instance, every time I've seen volatility like that, I don't care what the market was, whether it was soybeans in '76 or '83 or whether it was silver at the top in 1980 or whether it was some of the biotech stocks at the top earlier in the '90's, when you get that kind of volatility you know that generally that's associated with a top.") The interview took place 20 years ago, in early 2000 .

URL : http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Paul-Tudor-Jones-interview.html

A loss of more than 20% in such a short time span, may this be the top for the cryptos and will they become worthless in two years, 2023 ?
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I will use this thread to portray successful fund managers who've been able to deliver alpha aka who are professional capital allocators who get it right, rare enough they are. Today : Terry Smith, founder of Fundsmith.

Quote from this article, "Since its launch on 1 November 2010 until 19 October, the fund has delivered 440 per cent after costs or 18.6 per cent on an average annualised basis, far ahead of the 198 per cent total return on the MSCI World Index, according to FE. "

Source / URL : https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...84543/Fundsmith-440-return-decade-rivals.html
 
The support line in the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is, in my humble opinion, extremely important. If it won't hold with the next downswing, it may the last breath and then downward to zero. Complete whipeout for all long positions I foresee in cryptocurrencies.
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This is a more recent interview with Tom Basso, he is a chemical engineer by training who was employed by Monsanto and thought that price itself (beginning with shares of Monsanto !) could be, if correctly interpreted, a hint on / for future securities movements, see interview with him on page 1 in this thread.

2020 was his best year ever (trades since 1980), the underlyings he trades had big moves in both directions (stock indices being a perfect example, for obvious reasons) and was able to book a 90% return.

 
On page 16 of this thread, on 10/21/2020, I posted a long setup in the FX pair GBPUSD, when it trade below 1.3100 .

I think it has room to move above 1.40 this year ... however, please be aware of the swap that, if negative, bites into potential profits if positions are held for more than one day in currencies. Given that currency trading does not take place on weekends, brokerages charge the triple swap (often on wednesday) on one day during the week.

This website gives a good overview over what FX brokers charge, it can make some FX pairs simply untradable due to the high cost / fee that the swap may represent !

https://www.forexchurch.com/
 
I think if you have enough confidence and practice on the demo trade, anything can be doable in the realm of reality. The strategy which you are using is great but I would suggest using D1 charts in between to get the overall trend of the market in a previous day, so you anticipate the golden crosses and golden death.
 
If I'd be able to trade I'd stick to one fix approach that defines a trend. D1 charts can be a part of this, but of course are no must.

What without a doubt would not work is trying to use different time frames - here an upward trend, there a downward trend - and then try to trade diverse timeframes with sometimes conflicting signals.
 
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