... but is it doable in reality ?

Very nasty sell-off in the Nasdaq 100, but also quite a rebound.

My thesis - which of course is totally open to debate / criticism - remains :

A cagr of around 13.5% for the Nasdaq 100 means we can almost double until summer 2030.

And I came to this cagr expectation by taking the "vomiting lows" of 2002, and consider them fair value in early 2000 when this index hit 4,750 intraday.

125 compounding with 13.5% a year means around 840 in early 2000. If you take the highs before the great financial crisis in 2007, this growth rate remains valid.

I think 13.5% a year is more than most (day)traders will be able to realize, certainly beats total wipeout.
 
Despite my basic bullish thesis for the Nasdaq 100 / NDX remaining valid, VCATR has now given a "red signal", I've decided to go into cash.

It may mean a higher entry point when the next bullish signal comes above 17,950 - but I feel better not being long as of now.

The bullish signals worked very well since 1985 - for obvious reasons. If you held cash for 3 nasty years, you always had a great entry.

WYxM2EOL
 
This signal simply sucked ... I went into cash, and decided to go long in the NDX / Nasdaq 100 (no leverage) again.

Cost me money because of having to re-enter at a higher price

For the foreseeable future, no more market timing from me.
 
For complete newbies reading this thread for the first time, I already suggested looking into the tobaccos.

Their share prices turned south in 2017, now I believe Philip Morris International will make a new high (it closed yesterday very close to it, 120 US$, ATH 123 US$).

Altria has still some way to go, but I believe we'll see a dividend increase tomorrow and the NJOY products will be a success. I expect a dividend increase to 1.02U$ / quarter. (from 0.98 US$ now)

Another word, buy the old Philip Morris company by going 50/50 into the shares of both companies.

https://www.morningstar.com.au/insi...-best-performing-stock-over-the-last-80-years

Altria I see at 77.52 US$ at the end of next year, PMI will very probably make a new all-time high this year (2024).

hXtmXERs
 
I've become member of a small group whose founder, an Austrian native, analyzes US indices based on Elliott Waves. I'm fresh and cannot judge of course the quality of the forecasts / their accuracy, but this I want to share with you :

The expectation is that we'll see a drop slightly below 18,000 points at least in the NDX 100, then a rally beginning in early october.

Futurescontract right now 18,636 points.

QajjTDIZ
 
To get more concrete, the expected Nasdaq direction predicted based on Elliott Waves is,

"A move up to 18,965 points, then down to below 18,000 points until the FED meeting on 09/18/2024".

Takes place in one week.

Quote from the analyst from the group, Daniel Kleinhappel. I've zero, really zero experience with this form of market analysis. Robert Prechter got the US stock market totally wrong - and he bases his predictions on EW.

But there are some analysts that can analyze high probability setups based on this esoteric sounding analysis method.

sSXGlAOu
 
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