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President Bush is a retard.
President Bush is a retard.
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Bush-Economy Strong!
- Thread starter Aaron Copland
- Start date
Quote from piezoe:
67.
Ok. You've got 2 decades on me so think about your experiences. Do you see anything in the "day to day" economy that's any worse than 2001-2002, 1989-1992 or 1974?
Real estate in Los Angeles broke 42% from 89-94.
We had 7.8% unemployment as recently as 1992. In 1982 unemployment was over 10%. German unemployment is at it's lowest rate in 16 years yet it's still 7.5%.
For traders:compare this selloff to 2000-2002. This is friggin' benign.
Compare BSC or LEH to the blow up of EF Hutton. Small stuff.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Ok. You've got 2 decades on me so think about your experiences. Do you see anything in the "day to day" economy that's any worse than 2001-2002, 1989-1992 or 1974?
Real estate in Los Angeles broke 42% from 89-94.
We had 7.8% unemployment as recently as 1992. In 1982 unemployment was over 10%. German unemployment is at it's lowest rate in 16 years yet it's still 7.5%.
For traders:compare this selloff to 2000-2002. This is friggin' benign.
Compare BSC or LEH to the blow up of EF Hutton. Small stuff.
It is not so much what has happened so far, that's bad enough, but what is going to happen. We can't go back to unemployment figures in '74 because the way of calculating them now is different. The present method understates compared to 1974. For example, many companies have started subing to non-permanent employees to avoid paying benefits. Many of the folks subbing have looked for a permanent position with benefits and can't find one, so they work out of their homes and do piece work. It is very hard for them to obtain a continuous income stream that they can count on month to month, yet they don't tally in the unemployment figures now because under the new "rules" they are dropped from the unemployment rolls after so many months, or if they get so discouraged they stop looking, whereas previously many of these same folks would have been counted. And this i'm not sure about, but i believe the rules are also different for the under-employed-- you were a crane operator, but now you're selling "lucky dogs" on a street corner.
Also one has to consider all of the jobs outsourced to places like India. These are good jobs that would otherwise have been here. What happened to all those whose jobs were outsourced. I hardly think that they all got equally good jobs to replace the ones lost. But are those folks in the unemployment rolls?
In the recession we are now entering we will likely reach 8-10% unemployment even with the new method of calculating.
And when we finally leave Iraq, are those returning troops going to find jobs in this economy?
Many workers real wages, after total inflation (not just core), have either remained constant or declined slightly in the last few years.
We've been through slow downs and recessions before, of course, and some of them were bad. Even worse than the present condition. But we are just getting started here. Already certain industries have been especially hard hit. There have been already thousands of jobs lost in Banking and Finance, Casinos, Real Estate and automobile manufacturing. Building materials, contracting jobs, and even restaurant workers are being cut and the cuts are not over yet.
Pabst, you are surely astute enough to realize that weakness in one sector will spill, eventually, into another. This is going to be a very bad recession. You and I are lucky to be somewhat insulated from economic downturns, but believe me, the average Joe and Jill are not. Many lucky enough to have jobs are struggling like hell with 4$/gal gas and a real inflation rate that is far higher than the core figure.
Treasury and the Fed are not going to be able to engineer a "soft landing" because the damage has already been done and there is no painless way to undo it. Had the Fed, Treasury, and the SEC not been walking around with blinders on the past few years, and had we not obligated ourselves to 2-3 trillion in additional debt because of an ill advised war, we might have largely avoided the present mess. But they did and we did.
No, this is categorically NOT a strong economy.
Quote from bkveen3:
So we give up on capitalism and elect a socialist?
I'm not taking a side here. My point is that the alternative to Obama, is a risk that is far greater than the risk that Obama will turn out to be a little too socialistic for many of us. On that note, wouldn't it be fair to say that the Government and Fed actions of recent weeks (and days) can hardly be described as the epitome of laissez faire capitalism? Seems you should be every bit as worried about socialist tendencies under a Republican regime as under a Democrat one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kqbnEx5SDw
Vote the original Maverick!!!
"I fundamentally believe the fundamentals of our economy are strong" LOLOLOLOLO
Vote the original Maverick!!!
"I fundamentally believe the fundamentals of our economy are strong" LOLOLOLOLO
Quote from S2007S:
This economy is not turning around anytime soon, at least 3-5 years away....Unemployment rates are going to skyrocket to 8% by mid 2009 and GDP is going to fall well below 0%. This not going to be a quick turnaround, do not listen to bush about how strong the economy is. ITS NOT.
I wonder were Lanids and Makloda are? Don't they always follow you around?
I bet when we get a 200 point rally in the Dow they will be back stalking you again.
I'm not disagreeing with most of what your saying-though the war has nothing to do with it-much of Europe didn't fight in Iraq and their housing weakness mirrors ours.
What I am saying is compared to other downturns the "average guy" is faring better compared to asset holders than in previous meltdowns. Sure their will be spillover. The falafel venders on Water St. will certainly get hit.....
What I am saying is compared to other downturns the "average guy" is faring better compared to asset holders than in previous meltdowns. Sure their will be spillover. The falafel venders on Water St. will certainly get hit.....
Quote from piezoe:
It is not so much what has happened so far, that's bad enough, but what is going to happen. We can't go back to unemployment figures in '74 because the way of calculating them now is different. The present method understates compared to 1974. For example, many companies have started subing to non-permanent employees to avoid paying benefits. Many of the folks subbing have looked for a permanent position with benefits and can't find one, so they work out of their homes and do piece work. It is very hard for them to obtain a continuous income stream that they can count on month to month, yet they don't tally in the unemployment figures now because under the new "rules" they are dropped from the unemployment rolls after so many months, or if they get so discouraged they stop looking, whereas previously many of these same folks would have been counted. And this i'm not sure about, but i believe the rules are also different for the under-employed-- you were a crane operator, but now you're selling "lucky dogs" on a street corner.
Also one has to consider all of the jobs outsourced to places like India. These are good jobs that would otherwise have been here. What happened to all those whose jobs were outsourced. I hardly think that they all got equally good jobs to replace the ones lost. But are those folks in the unemployment rolls?
In the recession we are now entering we will likely reach 8-10% unemployment even with the new method of calculating.
And when we finally leave Iraq, are those returning troops going to find jobs in this economy?
Many workers real wages, after total inflation (not just core), have either remained constant or declined slightly in the last few years.
We've been through slow downs and recessions before, of course, and some of them were bad. Even worse than the present condition. But we are just getting started here. Already certain industries have been especially hard hit. There have been already thousands of jobs lost in Banking and Finance, Casinos, Real Estate and automobile manufacturing. Building materials, contracting jobs, and even restaurant workers are being cut and the cuts are not over yet.
Pabst, you are surely astute enough to realize that weakness in one sector will spill, eventually, into another. This is going to be a very bad recession. You and I are lucky to be somewhat insulated from economic downturns, but believe me, the average Joe and Jill are not. Many lucky enough to have jobs are struggling like hell with 4$/gal gas and a real inflation rate that is far higher than the core figure.
Treasury and the Fed are not going to be able to engineer a "soft landing" because the damage has already been done and there is no painless way to undo it. Had the Fed, Treasury, and the SEC not been walking around with blinders on the past few years, and had we not obligated ourselves to 2-3 trillion in additional debt because of an ill advised war, we might have largely avoided the present mess. But they did and we did.
No, this is categorically NOT a strong economy.
Obama will roll back the bankruptcy laws Bush put in place to protect the banks wink wink.
Please Fedex these bombs to Israel fast, we need the next war economy now.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=5805098
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=5805098