Bund upswing

N

nenolondon

Hi I am a bund trader and I cannot believe that the bearish trend on german bund has finished. But this "correction" of the last 2 weeks seems to carry a lot of strenght. Are the istitutionals happy with a 3.9% yield? is The ecb going for more hikes this year? what's going to be the dax perfromance this year?.....
If you take a look to the fibonacci starting march 28 you could make money on the 50% and 61.8%. what data is the market waiting for?
 
Quote from nenolondon:

Hi I am a bund trader and I cannot believe that the bearish trend on german bund has finished. But this "correction" of the last 2 weeks seems to carry a lot of strength. Are the institutional happy with a 3.9% yield? is The ecb going for more hikes this year? what's going to be the dax performance this year?.....
If you take a look to the fibonacci starting march 28 you could make money on the 50% and 61.8%. what data is the market waiting for?
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I think at the recent low on May 22 the Dax was up only 2.55% YTD from +13.54% at the May 09 high. Also, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 1.09% YTD on May 22 and is currently flat - from +8.72% on May 09++
 
Quote from nenolondon:

Hi I am a bund trader and I cannot believe that the bearish trend on german bund has finished. But this "correction" of the last 2 weeks seems to carry a lot of strenght. Are the istitutionals happy with a 3.9% yield? is The ecb going for more hikes this year? what's going to be the dax perfromance this year?.....
If you take a look to the fibonacci starting march 28 you could make money on the 50% and 61.8%. what data is the market waiting for?
More...

Nice that you've been able to partipate in the move, US ten years don't seem to wanna join in on the fun...
 
There's been a lot of safe haven flows out of equities and commodities, the bounce was called to go up to 117.32 by several institutions when we were down around 115s and seems to be panning out. In the past few days there have been strong cross border flows selling gilts BTPs and US treasuries into bunds. Month end duration extension flows are also holding the bid but these should be more apparent in the US and UK than bund. MNI reported some hedge funds now taking profits off large long bund short BTP positions giving us the two way action.

As long as it's moving i'm happy, the tnote ranges don't look very tempting.
 
here's my opinion, for what its worth....Bund and 10 yr have had some nice rallies recently, U.S. equities have broke quite a bit.

The flight to quality trade...equities break, fixed income rally's....but, keep in mind, if you were in equities last week and sold during the break, you could either put your money into bonds now (while bonds are rallying and more expensive) or put your money into bonds in a month (or so) when there's a good probability bonds will be priced better w. higher yields.

So me thinks that the 10 yr sell off on thursday could have something to do w/ alot of bond buying too early, pushing the price up to high. The overall trend is down, you know.

but thats just a half assed observation of the situation. I don't trade bigger moves like that, or even trade outright positions, mostly spreads, so take it with a grain. Cheers.
 
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