BUND >> looking for a simple intraday system

[rolex49]

Quote from doublechin:

put your two lot market stops in the bund 4 seconds before non farms 3 ticks each side of what's left of a market - you have no position beforehand this will stop you in. You'll have a relatively defined loss and a big upside if it's out of line. Goldman always seem to have the figure so it tends to go 2 seconds before official release time. I know people who do this on 150 lots and winners/cods ratio is extremely favourable, you'll never get on it otherwise but you need fasten your seatbelt this is not a technique for the faint hearted!

A fella at our place had a go one day doing the stops technique with 5 lots in the bund, bobl and schatz and dropped 16 grand! (Max position he could of had if all the stops were filled was 20 lots)
The problem is that chances are you will be stopped out before the figure is released in such a thin market. To be honest he was a bit of a doughnut and is no longer with us so don't take this at face value!!

 

[rolex49]

Quote from let it run:

Doublechin, I got myself a dummy account and tried out a couple of tactics which were a bit more complex than the one you talk about for NFP. Although it may work if NFP comes out of line (and the move is in the same direction as the jump that happens before the figure is released) it makes sense but it is a ridicuoous idea to give it a go unless oyu have a lot of money in your pocket already.

Firstly, there is usually a fluctuation both sides of value before the release which can cause tyou to be in two counteractive positions which totally voids the whole point of the exercise.

Secondly, the initial move before the figure IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT always in the same direction as the sentiment that the figure causes.

Thirdly, if you put your stops close to where the market is trading before the number then you are literally guaranteed a long + short position but if you put them further out then you are basically guessing at where the next price traded will be.

Lastly, and most importantly- if the number comes out broadly in line, the likelihood is you will get absolutely shat on.

I'm still working on the simulator with my way of doing it, which I think may eventually be useful more times than it is not but it simply isn't as easy as placing stops to go off- not getting triggered by noise is the key here.

I'll tell you how dangerous this is- in April's NFP I tested this on a sim with a 10 lot and ended up with a long and short position....... and still lost EUR 7k!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The message is simple- don't try it unless you can afford to lose big.

Maybe you didn't put your orders in the right place....i'd go back and have a look at what you did that day. I prefer to follow what double chin is saying, at least he is trading real money you yellow belly chicken shit!

 

[Wittgenstein]

Quote from forbiddendream:

A simple intraday system to get a few points .. like 4-5
or some tips to daytrade the bund.
Something simple, starting with 1-2 lots.
Do you follow any MA? EMA? i would like to catch breakouts, but it s hard !
Any tips or ideas ?
thanks.

Sorry, I have no system, but I can give you an advice: Don't scalp, but learn and trade the fundamentals, and you will do OK in bunds.

 

[5yrtrader]

Quote from Wittgenstein:

Sorry, I have no system, but I can give you an advice: Don't scalp, but learn and trade the fundamentals, and you will do OK in bunds.

What fundamentals should he use to scalp?

 

[FredBloggs]

Quote from rolex49:

A fella at our place had a go one day doing the stops technique with 5 lots in the bund, bobl and schatz and dropped 16 grand! (Max position he could of had if all the stops were filled was 20 lots)
The problem is that chances are you will be stopped out before the figure is released in such a thin market. To be honest he was a bit of a doughnut and is no longer with us so don't take this at face value!!

lol when ever i get a big draw down i tell myself that if i can lose money this quick, i can make it back just as quick.

never seems to work like this though!

 

[Wittgenstein]

Quote from 5yrtrader:

What fundamentals should he use to scalp?

The reasons why bunds and other bonds move up or down. But you can't scalp as a fundamental trader, but has to be more long-term.

 

[5yrtrader]

What fundamentals would you use to trade longer term? The return an investor get on Bunds compared to US 10years would seem to indicate the bund going down and 10 year up, right? THe opposite seems to be happening. Can you explain this?

 

[rolex49]

I started on the bund and i have to say it's not for the faint-hearted! A few things to note would be these:

1. Starting on a fast, and lets be honest challenging, market like the bund , means if you want to trade other contract in the future you have a real advantage. Especially things like free-money eurostoxx!

2. You probably will make 90% of your money on 10% of the days traded. Fundamental news such as terrorism and ecb/fed comments should be whacked with as much size as you can manage and whatever you do don't scratch it because its much harder to buy/sell and stay in it once it has already moved. Give yourself a little bit of room (i.e 2 tick loss) with such a big upside potential. Also remember different people get the news at different times so don't expect the market to move immediately.

3. Try not to be out buying your lunch when the Yuan gets revalued!!!!!!!!!!!!

4. Find the times of the day when you trade well and don't trade the shit inbetween

5. Listen to the experienced traders around you - if they are doing their backside then be cautious when trading. Better still save your bullets

Good luck grasshopper!

 

[Wittgenstein]

Quote from 5yrtrader:

What fundamentals would you use to trade longer term? The return an investor get on Bunds compared to US 10years would seem to indicate the bund going down and 10 year up, right? THe opposite seems to be happening. Can you explain this?

There are many factors: Inflation seems to creep back, oil going to the moon, the election, more upbeat economic news from Germany - just follow the news. Maybe we have seen the high for this year?

 

[let it run]

Quote from rolex49:

I started on the bund and i have to say it's not for the faint-hearted! A few things to note would be these:

1. Starting on a fast, and lets be honest challenging, market like the bund , means if you want to trade other contract in the future you have a real advantage. Especially things like free-money eurostoxx!

2. You probably will make 90% of your money on 10% of the days traded. Fundamental news such as terrorism and ecb/fed comments should be whacked with as much size as you can manage and whatever you do don't scratch it because its much harder to buy/sell and stay in it once it has already moved. Give yourself a little bit of room (i.e 2 tick loss) with such a big upside potential. Also remember different people get the news at different times so don't expect the market to move immediately.

3. Try not to be out buying your lunch when the Yuan gets revalued!!!!!!!!!!!!

4. Find the times of the day when you trade well and don't trade the shit inbetween

5. Listen to the experienced traders around you - if they are doing their backside then be cautious when trading. Better still save your bullets

Good luck grasshopper!

You don't even talk a good game Rolex, let alone play one. God bless ya mate!