Bullrun begins today

Quote from Bogan7:

There are plenty of reasons to see this market have a sustained strong rally over the next week or two including the imminent drop in the oil price into the 120's and the fact the market is still over sold I would be careful being short here but it is up to you. The bear mightnt be over but he may pull his head in for a bit.
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Yes, heavily over-sold! I agree.
 
a decline in price.

it took 6 months just to drop 8% in the market

you need to be heavily leveraged short positions to make any serious profit or return on your capital for position traders.

it's call a relief rally.


Quote from margo_trader:

"you mean bear market rally"

So true and one that won't last but 4 - 6 weeks in my opinion....assuming this is it.

T
http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/
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Quote from Cutten:

Didn't see much capitulation really. A mild amount earlier in the week, but certainly no panic, we didn't even break yesterday's low. It was nothing like the sort of bottom you normally see at bear market lows.

Since financials were leading things lower and WFC came out with good results when people were expecting garbage results, we got a very strong rally. It may continue a while, but IMO it's just a bounce off oversold & a bit of fear, sparked by surprise good news. I would say any rally is probably capped at 1300ish, maybe 1325, and that would then be a great short-sell opportunity for the next leg down in this bear market.

So yeah, good spot to cover shorts (if you didn't already on the WFC news). Good for a quick trading long perhaps. But if I don't think it's the start of a bull market.

Note - the VIX closed around 25. Usually in a real bull run, the VIX stays high for a while since people remain nervous, and a wall of worry is needed for a real big move higher. The collapse in the VIX tells me this rally probably ends within a few days or a couple of weeks at most.
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I agree! I hope for a two-three week run, but that's not what I'm seeing right now.:(

I'm no longer DCA'ing down anymore as of last quarter LOL! I'm buying more puts when we rally, and taking some money off the table 'if' we do rally for the next 2-3 weeks. This mess isn't over by a longshot, and I wonder if the next bottom is going to stay "a bottom and/or flat" for some time unless Crude heads back down to $70-$80.:eek: I don't see crude doing that.:(

Yes, this market is heavily over-sold. Long term buyers who have a time horizon of at least 3-5 years should be happy... In 3-5 years they'll be very happy with the returns they get if they'll buy over-sold equities now, and keep their emotions in check during "the flight."
 
Quote from musclemoney:

I agree! I hope for a two-three week run, but that's not what I'm seeing right now.:(

I'm no longer DCA'ing down anymore as of last quarter LOL! I'm buying more puts when we rally, and taking some money off the table 'if' we do rally for the next 2-3 weeks. This mess isn't over by a longshot, and I wonder if the next bottom is going to stay "a bottom and/or flat" for some time unless Crude heads back down to $70-$80.:eek: I don't see crude doing that.:(

Yes, this market is heavily over-sold. Long term buyers who have a time horizon of at least 3-5 years should be happy... In 3-5 years they'll be very happy with the returns they get if they'll buy over-sold equities now, and keep their emotions in check during "the flight."
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Business, deflationary/inflationary and emotional cycles that have stood the test of time since before the FED aside, I'm left to wonder if a hitherto evolution of fundamental analysis has yet to be found and if we're not in the midst of a paradigm shift where one is direly needed.

Floating monetary policy and quant analysis of the 70's and 80's failed; DCFs were of use before the market adapted in efficiency and relative forecasting is too easy to pad by tight-rope accounting acrobatics hiding debt and holdings not factored in shares outstanding.

Neural network forecasting based on past price action and lagging technical analysis indicators is the next evolutionary advance in my opinion.

I don't want to believe it, but the obvious screams that value investing is dated; and buying low hoping for prices to rise is neither investing or trading.

All for what it's worth and it may not be worth squat.
 
Yesterday's ESU8 trade from 1200 > 1236 and the re-test was textbook capitulation, IMO. A look at the XLF chart is all you need. This may be a bounce in a bear-market, but it's got legs to test 1275 if not 1300.

XLF implied vols hit a previous peak of 62% on the BSC fiasco, but reached an ATH of 68% yesterday, nearly 2x the AIV. Banking flows dictate the action, so follow the bank vols.

The action in XLF volty is screaming capitulation.
 
JPM and Mellon report before the bell and Citibank tomorrow.

Good chance market will bounce before resuming decline, based on reaction to extreme negative data last week. If the market couldn't capitualte on FNM, FRE and IndyMac its hard to envisage capitualtion on poor results from Citi.


More bang for buck on the long side.
 
Quote from S2007S:

"Bull RUN"


you mean bear market rally, if the market has another rally tomorrow take all the gains you can grab because the market is not done dropping.
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Why do you even bother posting in the TRADING FORUM anymore???

It's clear to everyone here that you don't do any TRADING.

Enough already.
 
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