Bullish on the S&P 500 (3/6/07)

Quote from S2007S:

How come oversold levels work so well, but when a market is overbought like it was for the past 9 months it tends to be ignored.

Please allow me to answer your question.
It is fairly simple to answer because it revolves around the TREND of the market.

When a market is in a strong downtrend, it tends to stay in OVERSOLD territory. Take a look at any Bear Market or Bear Trend and you will see factual evidence supporting this observation. Lower lows and lower highs equal a downtrend, which equals an OVERSOLD condition that stays oversold.

On the otherhand, when a market is in a strong uptrend, it tends to stay in OVERBOUGHT territory because higher highs are being made, as well as higher lows.

In otherwords, overbought/oversold conditions are reflective of the actual TREND.

Pretty simple.
 
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