Bullish on Crude Oil

[thehangingman]

Its only warm for the northeast. People are getting killed all over the United States because of ice storms. Big rigs are running off of bridges.

Denver got hit with several feet of snow where they had to pluck people off the roads in helicopters. People were buried alive in snow. In Oklahoma, troops were sent in and a state of emergency declared. Multiple people dead.

Believe me, its not that warm in all parts of the United States. The only part they care about is NYC, thats it. If there are ice storms in every other part of the United States where troops have to be sent in to calm a state declared emergency, it wont matter. As long as NYC is nice and warm, what the hey. . .

Quote from Surdo:

Look at the 10 day weather forecast for the Northeast U.S. Don't be so sure the lows have been made. If we have a warm February, NO WAY do we hold $50 in Crude. Tomorrow's EIA inventory report should be interesting.

I have been trading it long cautiously.

good luck!


el surdo

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Some of you are confusing crude oil and distillate, I believe.

If there's a glut of crude, but working down of refined distillate inventory because of weather (heating purposes), that doesn't mean that crude oil is going to rise.

In other words, a rise in distillate use may not offset the rising crude oil inventories so as to drive up the price (or keep it from falling further).

 

[a529612]

Quote from NihabaAshi:

To those trading USO...

Is there a reason why you prefer it in comparison to OIH or XLE besides USO being cheaper of the three???

Mark

USO tracks crude the commodity. OIH and XLE track the oil companies.

 

[dac8555]

Quote from NihabaAshi:

To those trading USO...

Is there a reason why you prefer it in comparison to OIH or XLE besides USO being cheaper of the three???

Mark

I dont see much advantage to USO. it doesnt track crude accurately enough and doesnt have much historical data.

On top of that ever since it was launced it has not developed any support or resistence patterns. i think it is hard to trade.

 

[NihabaAshi]

Thanks a529612 and dac8555.

Mark

 

[ess1096]

Quote from a529612:

USO tracks crude the commodity. OIH and XLE track the oil companies.

I prefer OIH & XLE because I trade the options.
USO doesn't have options.

 

[YIELDSAFE]

Quote from YIELDSAFE:

I believe that crude oil is due for a rebound rally to at least $55 per barrel from its close of 51.21 on 1/16/07. I believe this rally will occur within the next 8 weeks. The perfect storm of extreme negative sentiment and depressed valuation is in place and ready to uncoil. Correspondingly, I have entered a long position in USO at 43.93 on 1/17/07.

Entry: 43.93
Stoploss: 39.53
Time Stop: 8 weeks (maximum holding period)
Exit: Pending system signal

My forecast on crude oil was right on target. Today on 1/23/07, 1 week later, crude oil closed at 55.04.

 

[walter4]

That was a good call, congrats!

 

[Speechless]

my feeling is crude will hit $48 before the uptrend resumes

 

[S2007S]

This market is alll over the place, one day its tech the next day energy. Market is stuck and waiting for a move. The next move will be "substantial".