fed/central bank pivot, or russia-ukraine war ending = death of inflation, deflation, and return of the status quo - money printing and spy = no risk/free money, or whatever rikshaw man calls it.
Bullish October?
- Thread starter trader1974
- Start date
The rise is bumpy, the market has little strength.
It may go up a bit more but I think we will see drops sooner rather than later.
Does not go up with decision.
It may go up a bit more but I think we will see drops sooner rather than later.
Does not go up with decision.
Today the yield on the 10-year bond has risen sharply, that's a bad sign
On 14 October I had reported here:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...market-should-land.370140/page-4#post-5695782
this similarity: S&P 500 from the high of Jan. 4, 2022 to the low of Oct. 13:= -27.5%, practically similar to the period: 1980-1982 (see table I had
inserted in the above link), so in my opinion the October 13 low is probably the annual low.
According to some statistics in the book: "The right stock at the right time" by Larry Williams: years ending with the number 2 are years in which
a mininmo is often realized from which an upward movement will start;
in the fourth year of the 4-year cycle, a downtrend and thus a low is often formed, and 2022 is the fourth year of the 4-year cycle;
finally, 2023 will be the third year of the U.S. Presidential cycle (which is obviously 4 years), and the third year is usually upward because whoever is in Office
prepares the election campaign for the following year (even Perry Kaufman in his book: "New Trading Systems and Methods," confirms this feature of the
third year of the US presidential cycle).
Therefore, according to these statistics, an Upward Market should follow, probably until this spring.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...market-should-land.370140/page-4#post-5695782
this similarity: S&P 500 from the high of Jan. 4, 2022 to the low of Oct. 13:= -27.5%, practically similar to the period: 1980-1982 (see table I had
inserted in the above link), so in my opinion the October 13 low is probably the annual low.
According to some statistics in the book: "The right stock at the right time" by Larry Williams: years ending with the number 2 are years in which
a mininmo is often realized from which an upward movement will start;
in the fourth year of the 4-year cycle, a downtrend and thus a low is often formed, and 2022 is the fourth year of the 4-year cycle;
finally, 2023 will be the third year of the U.S. Presidential cycle (which is obviously 4 years), and the third year is usually upward because whoever is in Office
prepares the election campaign for the following year (even Perry Kaufman in his book: "New Trading Systems and Methods," confirms this feature of the
third year of the US presidential cycle).
Therefore, according to these statistics, an Upward Market should follow, probably until this spring.
Good work. There are a bunch of other data points (first 5 days of January, January Barometer, etc.) that also now support the bull.
%%
THAT'S one of my favorites ,JAN forecaster;JAN close Up = 88% chance of SPY market closing Up = for the year[Stock Traders Almanac]
But when it fails= it may fail big
;like 1987 + 2009. Not a stock or ETF tip
The January Barometer: devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, that is, in the event that the S&P 500 in January is positive, so it should be for the year (as this year, it has put up a gain of 6.2%, and since 1950 a similar performance--considering a "around" 1%--has been achieved eight other times). It appears to have a reliability rating of 72.2%.
A more detailed description can be read here:
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/january-barometer
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp
A more detailed description can be read here:
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/january-barometer
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp