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Bullet-proof martingale!?!
- Thread starter Xtrader59
- Start date
Quote from stonedinvestor:
... the stumbling block is the forex angle where the gains and losses are so minute every day one is lulled into a false sense of security-- baring a Mexican revolution or surprise Russian devaluation you never are in mortal danger. Stock traders are a more frisky lot- we live hanging on by our nails, with hundreds of positions, each of which could be halved in moments notice... ~ stoney
What I most like in forex is the absolute control of the risk. It ranges from zero (demo accounts) to "infinite" (you may blow up your entire account in minutes). Besides, no matter if you trade USD 0,01 or 1M. The cost is the same. You are not fooled into trading big under transaction costs pressure.
So if theres a 5 percent chance of losing and I do it 750 times in a row the chance of it losing 5 times in a row is 18.75?
Quote from Big Game Hunter:
Ok I have a question that im not a great enough mathmetician to work out so maybe someone out there knows the answer. Say theres a system and 95 percent of the time it wins. How do I calculate the probability that it will lose twice in a row. Three times. Or how about what is the probability that it will lose 5 times in a row assuming there is a 95 percent probability that it wins on any given event cycle. If someone can answer this question for me I will be very grateful. Thanks ..
0.05 x 0.05 of losing twice
0.05 x 0.05 x 0.05 of losing three times
etc.
But you have to take into account how much you win and how much you lose each time.
.05 * num_in_row = prob of losing n in a row
=0.05 * 5 *750= 18.75
=0.05 * 5 *750= 18.75
Ok thats much better than id worked out. Its clearer now... Thanks for that I understand how to work it out
Wow thats much better...
As i see it 0.05 * 0.05 *0.05 *0.05 *0.05 * 0.05 * 750 = the probabilty f it happening 5 times in a row in 750 separate events.... please correct me if im wrong here.
Im getting 0.000234375 percent chance of it occuring in 750 separate events.