What signals are you guys watching besides powell?
bull trend might be taking a break?
- Thread starter spectastic
- Start date
Increasing bond yields and increasing inflation.
inflation? where? shouldn't we have seen it for the last 20 years, but it's nowhere to be found?
The money needs to be spent for there to be inflation, and most of the "printing" is done in the form of availability of credit, which the FED can take off the table when they see the need to do so. Correct me if I'm wrong.
and bond yields is what they talk about in the news. But haven't we been through this before last year when iwm got merked due to speculation of corporate default, but the fed just came in and bought it up?
I'm not expert on macros by any means, but it seems like these correlations are short term, and people forget about them sooner or later.
The money needs to be spent for there to be inflation, and most of the "printing" is done in the form of availability of credit, which the FED can take off the table when they see the need to do so. Correct me if I'm wrong.
and bond yields is what they talk about in the news. But haven't we been through this before last year when iwm got merked due to speculation of corporate default, but the fed just came in and bought it up?
I'm not expert on macros by any means, but it seems like these correlations are short term, and people forget about them sooner or later.
You need to keep an eye on OJ. The last time he got locked up, Lehman went down.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/oj-simpson-faces-being-locked-344495
PA + Price&Time-relationship patterns
Big picture?
- JNK/EIS
- COPPER/GOLD
- XLY/XLP (RCD/RHS)
The first one remains incredibly bullish.
The second one is consolidating. Looks bullish, Copper is in backwardation. Awaiting resolution. If it resolves upwards, I get rid of anything do do with being short anywhere. Trains run you over being on the wrong side of that.
The third one is bearish with only 3 XLP companies underperforming the XLY. RCD/RHS gives a bullish pullback picture of discretionary, where AMZN and TSLA isn't 35% of the equation. This is more representative of the health of the sector on a relative basis, and just bounced off of a new higher low.
Tactically/short term?
-NDX can't get above the 50dma. That's not bullish.
-NDX lower highs, lower lows. This is the definition of a down trend
-MSFT/GOOG (NDX will be led by their up/down resolution short term).
-IWM is below it's Feb highs. Until that changes, it's tough to be long.
-Waning momentum on all major US indices. Negative divergences everywhere- pick an indicator.
-Value/Growth. Growth has been giving a push. I don't see it lasting as value has been singing her song since Sept. Once Value gets back into gear, I expect the markets to rip higher again. Maybe in a big way.
-Advancing issues-Declining issues. Hourly check is fine. The negative divergences are pretty solid here too.
-VIX. It's asleep though. That's unusual for what's going on, but I'm waiting to see if it's going to give us anything. This is a very minor signal for me through this pullback as it's not giving me much.
-VXK21-VXJ21
-% stocks in indices over the 50dma. It's not currently pretty for NDX
-AUDJPY
-New lows (20 day, 63 day, 126 day). It's a ghost-town there. I saw a tumbleweed roll by the chart.
One year ago, you could have bought anything on the planet, except for treasury bonds and you'd be up right now. You could have even bought gold and you'd be up. Prices rising need to take breaks. The underpinnings of the market are solid right now. The biggest concern is consumer staples running hot. It's weird, and defensive, but equal weight eases that concern a bit. I'd also like to see small and microcaps get some life back. I think that's this week. It's at a logical support area. JNK/IEF is the story. Credit markets know stuff beforehand. This looks to be just a thrashy rotation going on. Reduce size, don't take all the trades you usually take. Wait until the clouds part. Don't buy treasuries.
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I don’t think bull trend for stocks will end any time soon. The economies are recovering now and good news is coming in earnings season. markets will reflect this sentiment overall for few months ahead.
There may be volatitly and short term decline in stocks and indices due to news of covid rising in some regions and lockdowns or restrictions. But overall stocks will be moving higher I feel.
I read this analysis https://www.axiory.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-at-1-month-lows always reading expert analysis. We traders need to be aware of support levels as much as resistance levels.
I look out for breakouts below support to open positions. But I wait because there can be a false breakout. I wait for a pullback towards support level and then open positions, so I can benefit from increasing momentum in that direction.
There may be volatitly and short term decline in stocks and indices due to news of covid rising in some regions and lockdowns or restrictions. But overall stocks will be moving higher I feel.
I read this analysis https://www.axiory.com/technical-analysis/nasdaq-at-1-month-lows always reading expert analysis. We traders need to be aware of support levels as much as resistance levels.
I look out for breakouts below support to open positions. But I wait because there can be a false breakout. I wait for a pullback towards support level and then open positions, so I can benefit from increasing momentum in that direction.