Bull Trapping Part II or Sell the Bounce
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
Going nowhere fast. Market digesting pulse down. I'm playing this as follows. If we break through 1250 most likely test 1232 in the ES. If we break above 1264 most likely we test 1284 and perhaps 1300. 1250 to 1264 is "The Range."
Volatility has ebbed and most likely will continue shrinking until the FOMC meeting on 6/29 @ 2pm. Tricky business.
Good luck.
my advice in two words: 'go long'
Perhaps.
Currently undergoing price and volume compression.
There is a ledge forming at the low end of the range where selling volume dries up. But a catalyst such as FOMC will expand volume thereby releasing the energy necessary to break through the current range. Either up or down. FOMC has a tendency to reverse its initial direction either intraday or the following day and this current "bounce" hasn't had any juice.
I only wish I had extended my vacation another day or two....
Currently undergoing price and volume compression.
There is a ledge forming at the low end of the range where selling volume dries up. But a catalyst such as FOMC will expand volume thereby releasing the energy necessary to break through the current range. Either up or down. FOMC has a tendency to reverse its initial direction either intraday or the following day and this current "bounce" hasn't had any juice.
I only wish I had extended my vacation another day or two....
Today tested both ends of "The Range." Of note we broke below 1250 However it was too big a move too late in the day to break further. The forecasted range was multiday and based on today's range it was unlikely any break below 1250 was going anywhere at 3 pm after 13 pts down on moderate volume.
So what about tomorrow. I would not treat today's slump as break of support. I would require confirmation before selling now. 1264 was a different story.
Good Luck
Looking at the equities market I am reminded of the low volatility going over tha past few years and how starting in May '06 vol. ticked up substantially and how we sold off a few %. The thing is we have not sold off enough and this bull is getting old. Some are calling this a new bear (I am in that camp) but if this is a bear we need alot more selling in the months to come.
JMHO.
As for today I don't think we're going anywhere. JMHO #2.
JMHO.
As for today I don't think we're going anywhere. JMHO #2.
Any thoughts on the annoucement tomorrow?
it's probably a safe assumption the markets will sell-off all day today.
Im considering holding some profitable puts overnight and taking my chances. I don't the think feds can make any move that will move the markets higher.
.5 ==> indicates a pause/halt ... (how can the markets rally on a .50 incresea??)
.25 ==> indicates more to come ... (how can the markets rally on a .25 increase, with more to come?)
.00 ==> TO THE MOON, BABY! (aint gonna happen)
As always, it probably depends on the the wording ...
it's probably a safe assumption the markets will sell-off all day today.
Im considering holding some profitable puts overnight and taking my chances. I don't the think feds can make any move that will move the markets higher.
.5 ==> indicates a pause/halt ... (how can the markets rally on a .50 incresea??)
.25 ==> indicates more to come ... (how can the markets rally on a .25 increase, with more to come?)
.00 ==> TO THE MOON, BABY! (aint gonna happen)
As always, it probably depends on the the wording ...
