Quote from hels02:
Actually... what works, but NOT during a protracted bear market, is when the market CRASHES, sell all your poop that doesn't move, and immediately buy the stocks that have dumped, but were super hot.
No matter what, you will have a bounce a day or 2 out if things don't look so great, and you can sell it and be more ahead than you would have been hanging on to the dogs you sold. This is the point that most writers tell you to BUY. Right, so THEY can dump their mistakes on YOU. DON"T buy the day or 2 after a crash.
Ie., next dump, THAT's when you sell your nonmovers and buy GOOG, AAPL, GROW, BIG the things you wish you bought as they took off. For me, that list was GROW, BIG, TIE, QQQQ, PBW, CX, EBAY (little late on these 2, but still caught $.50 and $1 each).
I intend to sell all these back out in a few days or weeks, depending on what happens.
In a bear market, tactics change.
Quote from doublea:
I think we are going to close higher tomorrow. On Monday, if we manage to close higher than this week's high, we are going above 1460, if not we will re-test the low.
I'll be shorting tomorrow's close and will cover if we close higher on Monday.
It is surprising why the bonds were down today, when the equity market is expecting no increases in rates.
Just playing this as a game of chance.
Quote from Anunakki:
Good game plan.
IMHO...
If SPX closes above 1441 THEN we will probably continue up to at least 1460. But I wouldnt use this weeks high (1437.77) as an indicator of anything.
My gut says we will have a gravestone doji that touches the 1441 fib then falls back down to around todays close
Quote from duard:
Bulls 1, Bears 0
JMHO
Quote from duard:
Steenbarger:
A little while back, I mentioned a trading principle that has served me well: When we have expanding Demand or Supply, I expect a market move to continue in the short run. This is because momentum tends to peak or trough ahead of price. A while back, I applied this idea to a downside market. Let's see if this principle applies to the current strong reading in Demand.
Going back to September, 2002 (N = 1127 trading days), I found 11 occasions in which Demand exceeded a reading of 180. To provide a point of reference, this is a level at which stocks with significant upside momentum are outnumbering those with significant downside momentum by 8:1 or greater. When that has happened, the next day in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) has been up 6 times, down 5 times for an average loss of -.22%. By comparison, the average one-day gain for the market overall during the study period was +.04%. Certainly no bullish edge there.
When we look four days out, however, we see that the average gain following a very strong Demand reading is +.49% (9 up, 2 down). That is much stronger than the average four-day gain of .18% (632 up, 495 down).
If we broaden the Demand criteria and look at all occasions in which Demand has exceeded 150 (N = 32), we find quite a bullish edge four days out. Specifically, SPY has averaged a gain of .82% (27 up, 5 down). There is no bullish edge for the next day's trade, however.
What this suggests is that, in the very near term, strong upside momentum markets often take a bit of a breather before resuming their rise over the next several days. Accordingly, after strong and broad upside momentum, buying near-term weakness for a rise several days out has been a successful strategy.
Quote from Anunakki:
Im mostly here having fun being argumentative tonight so dont take it personally. Im very aware I can be wrong.
Id be interested to know how that study works when you look back at the corrections of '06, '05 and '04 ... all of which had a strong pullback to resistance levels on low volume before resuming their downtrend.. just like what we are witnessing now.
All statistics can be manilpulated to mean whatever the user wants.